🧵1/ Our first meta-science paper (with 350+ coauthors) is published today in Nature. It presents one of the largest-ever reproducibility projects in economics & political science.
Here’s what we found 👇
The paper is open access here:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Very grateful to the many colleagues and collaborators who supported this work!
#PoliSciSky #Conflictsky
Lolliplot of predictive performance of different feature combinations across different timepoints.
Key takeaways:
• Text features can improve conflict prediction, but gains vary widely across methods
• More complex models (e.g., transformers) are not consistently better than simpler approaches
• The usefulness of NLP features depends on text sources and the availability/quality of other features
Text features and baseline models' predictive performance line charts over 6 time horizons (BBC data, left; CrisisWatch data, right).
Happy to share that my new paper is out in @conflictmanagement.bsky.social
I compare several NLP approaches for conflict prediction:
• conflict dictionaries
• sentiment dictionaries
• word scaling
• dynamic topic models
• specialized transformer models
🧺 Paper Picnic 2.0 is here! More journals. New features. An easier way to keep up with the latest research in political science and adjacent fields. 🧵👇
Screenshot of a Google Scholar profile reaching 100 citations.
Happy Day!
More excited than I expected about reaching 100 citations in Google Scholar! Immensely grateful to my amazing co-authors who made it possible to reach this (mini) milestone!
The true future forecast is still being evaluated, but you can check out our and the other teams' contributions already here: predcomp.viewsforecasting.org
The article introducing the 2023/24 @viewsforecasting.org challenge just got published open access. This was a lot of fun to contribute to.
doi.org/10.1177/0022...
Currently in FirstView: “Exponential Random Graph Models for Dynamic Signed Networks: An Application to International Relations” by @corneliusfritz.bsky.social, @mehrl.bsky.social, Paul Thurner, and Göran Kauermann. The authors propose the Signed Exponential Random Graph Model (SERGM).
Our first meta paper is out!! This paper combines our first 110 completed reproductions/replications. This is joint work with 350+ amazing coauthors.
We summarize our findings below:
econpapers.repec.org/paper/zbwi4r...
I always dream of "knorke" becoming cool again, no luck so far though.
Our Political Analysis article got an issue number and is now fully officially published. :) Check it out here www.cambridge.org/core/journal... also check out the neat web-app we built to play around with it. kfeapps-conflict-intensity-streamlitapp-auon5d.streamlit.app