If you’re looking for some joy in your life, I know my spirit soared when I read this paper, and recorded this episode with @seriouspod.bsky.social
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Yes and, OP seems to assume polling for pres on inflation would match inflation % if only we knew the #. Polls during the Carter era aren’t the same people polled now. Circumstances cause us to assign blame differently. + we just aren’t always rational. Inflation is a formula. Polling is psychology.
I worked really hard on this one! Really appreciate the kind words. Happy to share my outline as well, if anyone wants a written format that lays out the various options for civil and criminal accountability. Don’t forget to check out part 2 (very next ep) to get the full picture!
If KBJ’s righteous indignation is giving you life, hear more gems from her at these timestamps:
- 20:46 - 22:22
- 1:15:15
- 1:27:55 - 1:30:08
- 1:16:11 - 1:19:16
- 1:38:07 - 1:39:27
To listen:
Our coverage of Louisiana v Callais & Clarke v Newburgh oral arguments. Sorry to say I’m not optimistic. We may be able to preserve pieces of NY law, but it’s possible we’ll hear that no State can protect its own voters, let alone federal.
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This week’s @openargs.bsky.social I cover how states can ensure access to vaccines, despite the CDC & FDA bs. Vaccines save lives, especially for people w/ disabilities.
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This. I think people are underestimating just how many lawyers & investigators in the Utah government (not FBI) were obligated to authenticate this kind of evidence before putting it in a legal document, and all the consequences if it was false, even by accident. It is wildly unlikely at every step
I feel like a lot of people define “hate” as a deep overwhelming angry emotion of loathing that’s actually just hurting your soul. Some base, sad thing that enlightened people avoid. But to me, “a hater” is like, Kendrick writing “Not Like Us”. Unflinching social commentary. “Someone had to say it”
That article literally doesn’t connect the shooter to groypers though? It just says people on social media are saying that and: “The markings on the bullet casings suggest the subject was steeped in meme culture and made references to online taunts and anti-fascist messages.”
I’ll never understand how the Dems are somehow the most incompetent disorganized dumbasses but also capable of conspiring to subvert the process so subtly to not get caught but so blatantly that it’s obvious (if you’re paying attention). Or… maybe sometimes people vote for candidates I don’t like
Today’s @openargs.bsky.social redistricting in TX, why NY probably won’t join that fight, Trump’s on his bs again about absentee ballots, changes to immigration standards, & a trademarks case
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Thanks! I was wondering where the level of precision came from, b/c I was assuming it had to be some kind of estimation. Read up on this method and it makes a lot of sense. Sure it’s one night, but what are the odds they picked a particularly bad or good night? Should reflect the general status
To be more precise, voting in the D primary can be people who just decided that’s the primary they wanted to vote in today, which could include reasons like “the R primary is uncontested”. This is a much looser affiliation than in states like NY, where your affiliation locks in months in advance
To be more precise, voting in the D primary can be people who just decided that’s the primary they wanted to vote in today, which could include reasons like “the R primary is uncontested”. This is a much looser affiliation than in states like NY, where your affiliation locks in months in advance
This is a bit inaccurate. Texas has open primaries and voters do not register with a party. This party breakdown is established by primary voters. An additional 2.8 million registered voters are “unaffiliated” meaning they didn’t vote in primaries. Those D primary voters could vote R in the general
This is a bit inaccurate. Texas has open primaries and voters do not register with a party. This party breakdown is established by primary voters. An additional 2.8 million registered voters are “unaffiliated” meaning they didn’t vote in primaries. Those D primary voters could vote R in the general
The EO on homelessness is cruel, not evidence-based, and will hit major legal challenges. Learn more on episode 1180 of @openargs.bsky.social
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Harm-reduction is evidence-based. Housing-first is evidence-based. Involuntary commitment is supposed to be a temporary last resort to save lives, not a back door to imprison people indefinitely without trial or representation. The new ugly laws: So rich people don’t have to see what they’ve done
I live in NY and actively follow politics. Never heard of him. I can’t remember his name right now. Republicans have no realistic shot at the NY federal senate seats, so this is unsurprising. Gillibrand knows she only needs to convince a few people in these neighborhoods to win the whole community
This is critical. Nationwide data will include some County in Alabama that, surprise, was even less blue than usual. There is no reason to commit felony election fraud in Alabama. Election data is compiled by County & State, so shifts in solid States actually prove a true nationwide shift occurred.
1) Source?
2) The Country shifted red, Counties also necessarily did. Every County that went red is 1 less County that could have gone blue
3) How do you explain this matching the polling?
4) There is no mechanism to beat the different security protocols in every State and County at once undetected.
In Rockland COUNTY: Harris 44% Gillibrand 53%. In Ramapo 35, a Hasidic town that votes as a bloc: Trump 552 votes, Harris 0. Gillibrand (who campaigns there) 331. The game of telephone made 1 precinct w/ 500 voters into “Harris got 0 votes in a whole County”… Fact check before sharing/repeating bs!!
Glad they mentioned the 2016 comparison. If they truly cared who leaked the info, they’d have ignored info from an obvious Russian agent trying to affect our elections. Normally I blame terrible media on clickbait, but this would have been clickbait gold… really bad sign for the state of reporting
“On the ticket” makes no sense. Even if some major anti-Mamdani vote turns out, that’s in 2025. Does he think a year later anti-Mamdani people turn out in droves to vote against other Dems while Mamdani’s not running? …maybe people are that illogical 🤦🏼♀️ but come on, enough to flip an NYC house seat?
Thomas wants you to hear “intentional discrimination” & only think of evil scheming to exclude people w/ disabilities, a view that would make the ADA basically unenforceable. Sotomayor explains intentionally not including ramps is itself discrimination, regardless of the architect’s personal animus.
We recorded before AJT was decided. The basics: If you’re suing for disability discrimination, on the basis that the ADA or Section 504 was violated, it shouldn’t matter whether it happened in a K-12 school, or college, or work place. Previously, some circuits made it harder for K-12 students to win
AJT v Osseo just a solid good decision. Thomas concurrence predictably awful, invites new challenger to dismantle the ADA. Kavanaugh signing on to it is concerning. Sotomayor concurrence was exceptional.
Hear me explain the case and discuss how the oral arguments got spicy on @openargs.bsky.social
Taking pictures of protestors is absolutely a scare tactic, especially considering how they’ve been targeting people for deportation based on politics. There’s no legitimate government function served by photographing a protestor
Do they think immigrants are hiding in the grass like Pokemon?
For a written resource about the Rockland lawsuit, that goes into way more detail than I could possibly cover in our 45 minute podcast conversation, I highly recommend this post by political scientist Christopher T. Kenny. Excellent plain-language breakdown of the faults in stats and reasoning