#14 Chechnya - Humiliation leads to Assassination YouTube video by Putschcast

Jokhar Dudayev died 30 years ago today. As someone who met the man and saw his brand of macho nationalism in action, I recall here the complex crazy story of Chechnya in the 90s. Russia committed crimes in Chechnya. Dudayev played his role in making that war happen.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDn6...

Welcoming @kadriliik.bsky.social to Carnegie Europe as a visiting scholar!

As a longstanding expert on EU-Russian affairs, she will complement our ongoing analysis of Europe's geopolitical standing and its ability to respond to Putin's war in Ukraine.

We will share more of her work soon.

The Orbanizing of Georgia Georgia’s ruling party is mirroring the strategies of Viktor Orbán and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The government’s illiberal measures complicate Brussels’s decision on Georgia’s EU candidacy.

Orban's defeat will have a big resonance in Georgia, where Georgian Dream pinned its hopes on having an illiberal friend in Hungary and the leaderships were very close. I wrote this back in 2023 but a lot is still relevant. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Russia's shrinking leverage in Armenia YouTube video by NEST Centre

The recording of this morning's midweek briefing is now available.

Thomas de Waal (@tomdewaal.bsky.social) joined NEST Centre's Katia Glod to discuss Armenia’s shifting foreign policy, its evolving ties with Russia, and what this means for the South Caucasus balance.

youtu.be/Py10ijk-wH4

Join this week's 30-min briefing: 'Russia’s shrinking leverage in Armenia'

9 April | 16:00 CET (10:00 EST)

Thomas de Waal (@tomdewaal.bsky.social) joins NEST Centre's Katia Glod to unpack how Moscow is responding as Yerevan shifts towards the EU & US.

Register: zoom.us/webinar/regi...

I actually don't know, it is up the Frontline Club. Thanks for your interest.

Four wives, two passports and a very elusive butterfly: one woman’s search for her lepidopterist father Rena Effendi’s film Searching for Satyrus began with a quest for the endangered insect that bears her family name. Before long, she was reckoning with secrets, lies and the mysterious life of her wayw...

Read more about the film in the Guardian www.theguardian.com/film/2026/ma...

I am hugely looking forward to talking to Rena Effendi at the Frontline Club in London on April 22 about her wonderful film, Searching for Satyrus about looking for a butterfly and the father she never knew and traveling to Armenia, the other side of the conflict divide. Come along!
lnkd.in/gJpNecA9

Time to Merge the Commission and EEAS The EU is structurally incapable of reacting to today’s foreign policy crises. The union must fold the EEAS into the European Commission and create a security council better prepared to take action on...

carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Stefan Lehne today: EU foreign policy is dysfunctional, it's time to fold the EEAS into the Commission.

A lovely man and a great Russia scholar. Very sad news.

This piece by my Berlin colleague Alexandra Prokopenko is essential reading on Russia. The Russian economy is in a slow death spiral, bankrupting itself on fuelling the Ukraine war--and yet the leadership is not changing course, as it believes everyone else is also failing.

Is 2026 a Turning Point for Armenia and Azerbaijan? | Europe Inside Out Thomas de Waal, Zaur Shiriyev, and Areg Kochinyan examine recent shifts in Armenia–Azerbaijan relations and explore future trajectories in the South Caucasus.

This year Armenia and Azerbaijan inch towards a peace agreement. Armenia holds a critical parliamentary elections. I discuss 2026 in the region for the @carnegieeurope.bsky.social podcast with @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social and Areg Kochinyan.
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...

The unquiet past: memory, conflict and the writer’s voice A special live music and reading event dedicated to Akram Aylisli, the Nobel Prize-nominated Azerbaijani writer whose novel Stone Dreams ignited international debate on Armenia and Azerbaijan.

I had stopped advertising our Akram Aylisli event tomorrow evening as it was sold out but they have now moved us to a bigger room. Come along if you can! (ignore the banner here) www.thersa.org/events/2026/...

Thank you! Yes, literally silting up like the Danube

Europolis, Where Europe Ends A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.

🆕 | A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards.

In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Europolis, Where Europe Ends A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.

Europolis, an evocative Romanian novel from 1933 about a Danube delta town, has much to tell us about Europe's real and imagined discontents. Real "decay" in Europe is about closing off cultural and mercantile exchange My piece for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Taking the Pulse: Is It Time for Europe to Reengage With Belarus? In return for a trade deal and the release of political prisoners, the United States has lifted sanctions on Belarus, breaking the previous Western policy consensus. Should Europeans follow suit, usin...

❔ | In return for a trade deal & the release of prisoners, Washington has lifted sanctions on Belarus.

Should Europeans follow suit, using their leverage to extract concessions from Lukashenko, or continue to isolate a key Kremlin ally?

Read experts' takes:
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Taking the Pulse: Is It Time for Europe to Reengage With Belarus? In return for a trade deal and the release of political prisoners, the United States has lifted sanctions on Belarus, breaking the previous Western policy consensus. Should Europeans follow suit, usin...

Delighted to contribute to @carnegieendowment.org ’s #TakingThePulse on whether Europe should reengage with #Belarus. An interesting set of diverse views: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat....

New Tricks and AI Tools in Hungary’s High-Stakes Election Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faces his most serious challenge yet in the April 2026 parliamentary elections. All of Europe should monitor the Fidesz campaign: It will use unprecedented method...

Viktor Orban is using new and old methods to keep power in the upcoming Hungarian election, from handouts to AI fabrications. It's a laboratory of sorts for other future European elections. By the remarkable Zsuzsanna Szelényi for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Europe Faces the Gone-Rogue Doctrine The hyper-personalized new version of global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia. But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptiv...

The hyper-personalized global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia.

But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptive former ally determined to break the rules, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Europe Faces the Gone-Rogue Doctrine The hyper-personalized new version of global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia. But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptiv...

It's not the Monroe Doctrine 2.0, it's the “Gone-Rogue Doctrine.”

My column today for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social on Trump's Greenland gambit as performative imperialism, why “sphere of influence” politics doesn’t work any more and Europe's choices. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Solidarity Is a Must for Europe to Ensure its Own Security Europe is designing a new model of collective security that no longer relies on the United States. For this effort to succeed, solidarity between member states that have different threat perceptions i...

Europe is designing a new model of collective security that no longer relies on the United States.

For this effort to succeed, solidarity between member states that have different threat perceptions is vital, argues @erik-jones.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

EU Parliament adopts resolution condemning human rights situation in Azerbaijan The resolution ‘strongly’ condemns the arrest of Ali Karimli, chair of the opposition Popular Front Party, and calls for his immediate release.

The EU Parliament has adopted a new resolution condemning the human rights situation in Azerbaijan and the imprisonment of researchers Bahruz Samadov and Igbal Abilov, on 18 December.

Trump’s Peace Lessons for Europe U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims to have ended eight wars may be debatable, but his peace efforts raise valid questions. Europe can learn lessons from Washington on how to break the deadlock in pr...

U.S. President Donald Trump's claims to have ended eight wars may be debatable, but his #peace efforts raise valid questions.

Europe can learn lessons from Washington on how to break the deadlock in protracted conflicts, writes @tomdewaal.bsky.social.

carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Trump’s Peace Lessons for Europe U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims to have ended eight wars may be debatable, but his peace efforts raise valid questions. Europe can learn lessons from Washington on how to break the deadlock in pr...

My piece just published. It's easy to be sniffy about Trump's "Art of the Deal" peace-making. Liberal peace is still the best variety, if rare. But Europe can still learn from Trump's willingness to shake things up and break the status quo. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

🎧 | Is Britain Becoming More Like Europe?

In this new #EuropeInsideOut episode, @tomdewaal.bsky.social, @peterkellner.bsky.social, & Anne McElvoy discuss the state of British politics and what it means for EU-UK relations.

Listen now 👉 europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...

Taking the Pulse: Should Europe Negotiate with Russia? By negotiating directly with the Kremlin, the Trump administration has broken the taboo on diplomatic contacts with Russia. With Ukrainian and European security at stake, is it time for Brussels to op...

carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Should Europe be negotiating directly with Russia? Seven scholars respond to our latest @carnegieeurope.bsky.social (deliberately provocative) question

Armenia's election, like it or not, is being fought by outside actors as well. Russia and parts of the US diaspora have a new candidate to unseat Nikol Pashinyan. Pashinyan needs help to demonstrate progress in his Real Armenia agenda. My latest for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social

A great line-up of experts, ahead of @cop30brazil.bsky.social, to consider if Europe still has a leadership role on climate change. Yes, it does, some say, it never had one, others contend!

Taking the Pulse: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change? COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to energy transition and ecological protection. Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain its role as a d...

❔| #TTP: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change? ➡️

COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to climate action.

Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain a leading role?
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...