There are fiscal consequences. Before the SCOTUS ruling, the CBO had forecast a $1.9 trillion budget deficit this FY, ~5.8% of GDP. It will be larger. The deficit has been above 5% of GDP for the past six years. Rating agencies said tariff revenue was credit positive. (4/4)

Estimates suggest the tariffs cost American households ~$1745 on average. The $127 bln plus interest is about 63% of the tariffs collected. It is not clear when the other 37% plus interest will be paid. Some say it could take years. (3/4)

will receive the largest refunds. Businesses do not appear prepared to pass the refunds back to the ultimate payers of the tariff--American consumers--in the form of price cuts. Instead, through dividends and/or share buybacks, the refunds will benefit the owners.
(2/4)

Monday, April 20, 8 am ET US program (CAPE) to refund the now-recognized as illegal tariffs will begin. Some 56k companies--importers of record--have reportedly registered. The largest importers (e.g., #WMT, #COST, #TGT, #AAPL,#AMZN, and #FDX) (1/4)

Week Ahead: Dollar and Stocks Due for Corrections? Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

New weekly commentary: US stock rally looks overdone in the near-term and so does the dollar's sell-off. Both could correct next week. News from Middle East may not be as unambiguous as social media posts suggest.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/04/week...

Iran Opens Strait of Hormuz, Dow Jumps 1,000 Points! WTI Crude Falls 14%, Brent Crude 13% | ET Now YouTube video by ET Now

#OnETNOW | "Markets were anticipating it..: Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Capital Markets on the market surge following the opening of Strait of Hormuz, highlighting market highs, but there is no return to the status quo ante
Full segment - youtube.com/watch?v=Lwj6...
#IranWar #StraitofHormuz

Iran Opens Strait of Hormuz, Dow Jumps 1,000 Points! WTI Crude Falls 14%, Brent Crude 13% | ET Now YouTube video by ET Now

#OnETNOW | "Markets were anticipating it..: Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Capital Markets on the market surge following the opening of Strait of Hormuz, highlighting market highs, but there is no return to the status quo ante
Full segment - youtube.com/watch?v=Lwj6...
#IranWar #StraitofHormuz

Week Ahead: Dollar and Stocks Due for Corrections? Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

New weekly commentary: US stock rally looks overdone in the near-term and so does the dollar's sell-off. Both could correct next week. News from Middle East may not be as unambiguous as social media posts suggest.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/04/week...

Greenback Recovers Despite New Threats on the Fed and Stronger UK and Chinese GDP Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

DXY did not snap its losing streak yesterday but may today. It has matched its longest losing streak since 2011. Today's gains come despite stronger than expected UK and Chinese GDP figures and new threat by POTUS to fire Powell.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/04/gree...

The Greenback is Poised to Snap Losing Streak Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

DXY has not posted a higher close since April 2. It losing streak may end today. It is trading with a firmer bias and while POTUS holds out the possibility of the war ending soon, the press reports more troops are headed to the region.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/04/the-...

Interesting FX options that expire tomorrow
1.64 bln euros $1.18 2 bln euros at $1.1750
$1.5 bln at JPY158.85
A$2.1 bln $0.7125-30.
www.marctomarket.com

Interesting FX options that expire tomorrow
1.64 bln euros $1.18 2 bln euros at $1.1750
$1.5 bln at JPY158.85
A$2.1 bln $0.7125-30.
www.marctomarket.com

Beijing's campaign to accept a modest appreciation of the yuan continues. The fix was set at its lowest level in 3 yrs today. On weekly basis, it has risen 2x since last Sept. Today is the 8th consecutive session USD has fallen against the offshore yuan. #crickets

Optimism Weighs on the Greenback Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Optimism seen in North America yesterday was contagious. Equities and bonds higher today, and oil lower. Another round of negotiations during ceasefire?
$USD extending yesterday's losses. PRC trade surplus half as large as expected. MAS tightens.
See marctomarket.com/2026/04/opti...

Optimism Weighs on the Greenback Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Optimism seen in North America yesterday was contagious. Equities and bonds higher today, and oil lower. Another round of negotiations during ceasefire?
$USD extending yesterday's losses. PRC trade surplus half as large as expected. MAS tightens.
See marctomarket.com/2026/04/opti...

Restrained Risk-Off Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

US-Iran negotiations failed over the weekend. The risk-off moves today though have mostly been mild. US blockade of Iranian ports could disrupt next month's Trump-Xi meeting. Bab-el-Mandeb Strait may also be brought into play.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/04/rest...

Week Ahead: Hope Springs Eternal Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

The risk-reward of pursuing war on Iran appears to have shifted for Washington and that helps fan hopes that despite the initial difficulties the ceasefire could stick. Some promising noises from Ukraine and Russia talks. Hungary election tomorrow.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/04/week...

The reason charging toll for using the Strait of Hormuz is the UN Law of the Seas. Yet, the US has not signed or ratified the treaty. Neither has Iran. The Strait was open before the war. How can it be the objective of the war? Asking for a friend.

Week Ahead: Hope Springs Eternal Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

The risk-reward of pursuing war on Iran appears to have shifted for Washington and that helps fan hopes that despite the initial difficulties the ceasefire could stick. Some promising noises from Ukraine and Russia talks. Hungary election tomorrow.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/04/week...

The reason charging toll for using the Strait of Hormuz is the UN Law of the Seas. Yet, the US has not signed or ratified the treaty. Neither has Iran. The Strait was open before the war. How can it be the objective of the war? Asking for a friend.

The G10 fx consolidation today looks constructive. Today's North American highlights including US March CPI and Canada's jobs data. Middle East ceasefire is frayed but intact ahead of the weekend negotiations. Hungary holds key election too.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/04/g10-...

Rough Start to Ceasefire Curbs Yesterday's Enthusiasm Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Ceasefires often have a troubled start and this one is no different. It is complicated by Israel's action in Lebanon. Yesterday's exuberance was exaggerated and has been pared a little. Oil firmer, equities lower, yields higher. $USD in narrow ranges.
marctomarket.com/2026/04/roug...

Ceasefire Lifts Animal Spirits Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Ceasefire rallied stocks and bonds. $USD was sent sharply lower and oil dropped sharply. North American traders may be reluctant to extend the risk-on rally without more details. It was seem counter-intuiti but the dramatic moves pose risks.
See marctomarket.com/2026/04/ceas...

On the Edge of the Abyss Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

The US deadline draws close. It hangs over market activity. It remains binary. A ceasefire will boost risk assets and weigh on the greenback. The opposite is true, as well. Meanwhile, undaunted, the PBOC set the USD fix at a three-year low.
See marctomarket.com/2026/04/on-e...

On the Edge of the Abyss Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

The US deadline draws close. It hangs over market activity. It remains binary. A ceasefire will boost risk assets and weigh on the greenback. The opposite is true, as well. Meanwhile, undaunted, the PBOC set the USD fix at a three-year low.
See marctomarket.com/2026/04/on-e...

Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Hope of a cease-fire between US/Israel and Iran has captured the imaginations of the holiday-thinned market today. The negotiators themselves reported are not optimistic. $USD gave back earlier gains and is posting a possible outside down day.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/04/ceas...

Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Hope of a cease-fire between US/Israel and Iran has captured the imaginations of the holiday-thinned market today. The negotiators themselves reported are not optimistic. $USD gave back earlier gains and is posting a possible outside down day.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/04/ceas...

Week Ahead: Its Still Mostly about the War Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Week Ahead: Still mostly about the war. US and China report March CPI. China's PPI may have emerged from deflation. Canada reports March jobs data. RBI is relying on cap controls to support INR, not rate hike.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/04/week...

Week Ahead: Its Still Mostly about the War Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Week Ahead: Still mostly about the war. US and China report March CPI. China's PPI may have emerged from deflation. Canada reports March jobs data. RBI is relying on cap controls to support INR, not rate hike.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/04/week...

Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar's Narrow Ranges Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Fear that the Middle East war escalates in the coming days, before full liquidity returns next Tuesday, will likely limit risk taking today. US jobs is the focus in early North America. Three US army generals lost their jobs in the past 24 hours.
See marctomarket.com/2026/04/risk...