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Another large subduction earthquake off the coast of northern Japan... ...and another megaquake advisory is issued.

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A M7.4 earthquake offshore northern Japan today led to a megaquake advisory: a warning that the risk of a M8+ earthquake is ten times higher than usual. What does that mean, and how does this event fit into the mosaic of earthquakes in this seismically active region?

M5.7 earthquake rattles Nevada Is it related to the earlier M5.7 in December 2024?

A M5.7 earthquake occurred in west-central Nevada yesterday evening - close to a very similar earthquake about one year earlier. Can we tell what faults they occurred on, and were they related?

earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m57-earthq...

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M4.6 earthquake strikes south of Bay Area More than 32,000 people report shaking

Did you feel last night’s M4.6 earthquake in the Bay Area? If so, you’re not alone: more than 32,000 people have reported it so far. We explore the geology to try to figure out what fault ruptured, and what to expect.

earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m46-earthq...

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M7.4 earthquake in the Molucca Sea Building damage, moderate tsunami, one death reported

A M7.4 earthquake in the Molucca Sea, Indonesia yesterday caused building damage and raised a moderate tsunami. One person is reported dead. What do we know about the causes and impacts of this event?

earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m74-earthq...

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M6.5 subduction earthquake rattles northern Honshu, Japan Apparent aftershock of the 2025-11-09 M6.8 earthquake

⚒️ 🧪 A M6.5 earthquake occurred offshore Honshu, Japan today. With 3 large earthquakes in 6 months, residents may be used to shaking by now. This latest quake occurred near a M6.8 in November. But with some complicated seismic behavior, it isn’t 100% obvious that this is an aftershock.

Read more:

M7.5 earthquake near Tonga is the largest of 2026 (so far) Light to moderate shaking and tsunami warning for residents of Tonga

Today saw the largest earthquake of 2026 (so far): a M7.5 near Tonga, with moderate shaking.

Residents of Tonga were told by authorities to evacuate in case of a tsunami, even though the US Tsunami Center said it was safe. Read our post to find out why both groups might have been right.

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Magnitude 5.8 earthquake strikes near Cuba Another earthquake along the fault system south of the island

A M5.8 earthquake struck offshore southern Cuba last night - on the heels of a nationwide blackout. This raises memories of the 2024 M6.8 earthquake, days after a hurricane. Fortunately, this latest earthquake was not damaging, but it is reminder of the hazard of compounding disasters.

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M5.3 earthquake strikes along the North Anatolian Fault A moderate earthquake on a fault with a long history of triggering

Earlier today, a M5.3 earthquake struck northern Turkey.

The earthquake occurred on the North Anatolian Fault - a very large, very active fault with a history of many deadly M7+ earthquakes over the last century, starting in the east and moving west.

How does this event fit in?

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Can we tell if an earthquake is going to be a foreshock? A recent study says yes, but we find otherwise.

Will a large earthquake be followed by an even larger event? A 2025 paper proposed a new method for classifying foreshocks in advance, with an apparent success rate above 90%.

But does it work?

Our deep-dive analysis found serious problems that we believe invalidate the result. Read more:

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Can we tell if an earthquake is going to be a foreshock? A recent study says yes, but we find otherwise.

Will a large earthquake be followed by an even larger event? A 2025 paper proposed a new method for classifying foreshocks in advance, with an apparent success rate above 90%.

But does it work?

Our deep-dive analysis found serious problems that we believe invalidate the result. Read more:

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M5.3 earthquake shakes Kolkata and Dhaka "Like all of the world is shaking and the sky will fall on the earth."

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A M5.3 earthquake struck western Bangladesh earlier today. The USGS estimates that more than 150 million people in this densely populated delta experienced at least intensity IV shaking. What do we know about this earthquake, and the geology that caused it?

Deep Mw7.1 earthquake strikes Sabah, Malaysia A signal from a deeply subducted slab?

A M7.1 earthquake struck below northern Borneo today - a large event, but because it occurred 620 km deep, not damaging. The event raises questions: how can an earthquake occur so deep, where the rocks are hot and squishy? And why here, so far from Southeast Asia’s many subduction zones? ⚒️ 🧪

A line curve showing number of awards for fiscal year 2026 compared to fiscal years 2021-2025 across NSF. The fiscal year 2026 curve lies well below curves for other fiscal years.

NSF Update

Funding curve overall. A little bit of progress in the past week, but only a little bit.

Now by Directorate...

1/11

M6.2 earthquake rattles central Chile A delayed aftershock of the 2015 M8.3 Illapel earthquake?

A M6.2 earthquake rattled Chile yesterday, apparently a delayed aftershock of the 2015 M8.3 Illapel earthquake. (Yes, aftershocks can continue for a decade or more!) In the meantime, Chile deployed a cutting-edge offshore fiber-optic system to monitor seismicity, which recorded this event! ⚒️ 🧪

This swarm in San Ramon revived yesterday, with a new burst that included a M4.2. We wrote an update, and removed the paywall from our previous post to allow broader access.

If you read our posts, please consider supporting our work by becoming a paid subscriber.

The California State University system spent $16.9 million last year giving ChatGPT to all students, faculty, and staff. We are asking the CSU chancellor not to renew the contract with OpenAI when it expires.

Anyone can sign the petition — link below!

Pulsed swarm of seismicity offshore Mindanao, Philippines Unusual activity on a dangerous megathrust

⚒️ 🧪 A swarm of earthquakes has been rattling western Mindanao, the Philippines' 2nd-largest island. Some areas have been preemptively evacuated. The fault system here has a record of damaging, tsunamigenic earthquakes, and this swarm is unusual. So, what’s going on, and what can we say about hazard?

Pulsed swarm of seismicity offshore Mindanao, Philippines Unusual activity on a dangerous megathrust

⚒️ 🧪 A swarm of earthquakes has been rattling western Mindanao, the Philippines' 2nd-largest island. Some areas have been preemptively evacuated. The fault system here has a record of damaging, tsunamigenic earthquakes, and this swarm is unusual. So, what’s going on, and what can we say about hazard?

M4.1 earthquake shakes Toronto After two feet of snow, residents ask: minor earthquake or rumbling snowplow?

A M4.1 earthquake rattled Toronto last night. Many residents of the city, who just experienced record snowfall, thought (hopefully?) that the shaking might be the rumbling of a plow.

This was the largest quake to hit the region in 20 years. Why did it happen, so far from a tectonic plate boundary?

Ah, that makes more sense! That is pretty impressive. Here is a map from the USGS showing felt responses for the Virginia earthquake - people reported intensities of II-IV in the Toronto area, which overlaps with the recent felt responses.

A lot less! The 2011 Virginia earthquake was much larger (M5.8) and in a more populated area.

M4.1 earthquake shakes Toronto After two feet of snow, residents ask: minor earthquake or rumbling snowplow?

A M4.1 earthquake rattled Toronto last night. Many residents of the city, who just experienced record snowfall, thought (hopefully?) that the shaking might be the rumbling of a plow.

This was the largest quake to hit the region in 20 years. Why did it happen, so far from a tectonic plate boundary?

M4.7 earthquake in Utah rattles Salt Lake City We take a look at the fascinating Bear River Fault

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A magnitude 4.7 earthquake rattled Salt Lake City on Thursday. Although large earthquakes are (eventually) expected on the nearby Wasatch Fault, this event occurred to the east, near the intriguing Bear River Fault Zone. Was it responsible? We take a look.

M4.7 earthquake in Utah rattles Salt Lake City We take a look at the fascinating Bear River Fault

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A magnitude 4.7 earthquake rattled Salt Lake City on Thursday. Although large earthquakes are (eventually) expected on the nearby Wasatch Fault, this event occurred to the east, near the intriguing Bear River Fault Zone. Was it responsible? We take a look.

M4.9 earthquake strikes inside Joshua Tree National Park, California A small earthquake in a tectonically complex region

Did you feel the M4.9 earthquake that struck southern California two days ago? How about its largest aftershock (M4.3)? The earthquake occurred below Joshua Tree National Park, on an unmapped fault northeast of the San Andreas. Read more:

earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m49-earthq...

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M5.6 earthquake collapses buildings in Pakistan Strike-slip event in the western Tibetan Plateau

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A M5.6 earthquake in northern Pakistan caused several buildings to collapse yesterday. How does this strike-slip event fit into the menagerie of Tibetan Plateau earthquakes?

earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m56-earthq...

M5.7 earthquake in western Japan causes minor damage An exploration of the enigmatic San-in Shear Zone

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A M5.7 earthquake in western Japan caused minor damage yesterday, preceded by very small foreshocks in the week prior. Why did it occur here, so far from the subduction zone? What do we know about the faults in this part of Japan? And is any of this related to the nearby volcanoes?

M5.7 earthquake in western Japan causes minor damage An exploration of the enigmatic San-in Shear Zone

⚒️ 🧪

A M5.7 earthquake in western Japan caused minor damage yesterday, preceded by very small foreshocks in the week prior. Why did it occur here, so far from the subduction zone? What do we know about the faults in this part of Japan? And is any of this related to the nearby volcanoes?