New #NWSL predictions!
Wins by Orlando, KC, and Washington push them into a top-5 with San Diego and Portland. It's tight at the top, but San Diego's current point total gives them the edge on the shield.
Another 5 teams have around a ~50% of the playoffs behind them.
New #NWSL predictions!
Big shakeup at the top of the table, with San Diego Wave taking over as the Shield leaders. Kansas City falls to their lowest projection in years.
Spirit, Courage, Gotham, and Dash are straddling the playoff line, but it's very close from 2nd - 9th.
New #NWSL projections after a chaotic set of midweek games!
KC Current stay first, but the Shield race is much more wide open, with 4 teams having a 10%+ chance. Gotham slips all the way to 8th following their defeat.
There's basically no difference between the projections for 2nd - 6th.
They had the death squad for the Bayern game and tied Chelsea. Madrid is their only other real competition but they'd be midtable in the NWSL or WSL.
New #NWSL Elo Season Projections following week 2!
KC's loss opens the Shield race up, with their odds down to 36% (still comfortably the highest!)
Among the leaders, the model believes in Angel City (6th) more than Houston (10th). The two expansion teams are at the bottom after tough games.
The perfect racing performance - loved by the model, loses anyway.
#NWSL predictions following the first week of games!
North Carolina into 3rd over the Spirit, and KC continues to separate from the pack - a strong week one performance gives the model no concerns about their turnover.
Sharing my #NWSL preseason predictions one more time before the season starts tomorrow!
Since last post, I normalized the offense/defense ratings so 100 is average for both. You can see how different from average the model thinks your team is in both phases of the game.
I've also got a plot of how each team's offense and defense sizes up
With the season starting next week, I've got my Elo #NWSL predictions! I've added offensive and defensive rankings to each team, which allows for goal differential predictions and smoother results.
The results are based on last season's ratings (with an adjustment to account for the new year).
This was a good breakdown!
On the KC side, I think Bethune + Debinha + Sentnor is a tricky combo. I overlaid their heatmaps from last year here, and there's a lot of overlap in the middle of the park.
If your goal is to win games, this makes no sense.
If your goal is to make money by buying youth and selling them back to England in a few years, well...
Oh yes I might have misunderstood.
I do think the leagues broadcast deal is lower than the reported amounts because the league pays for production.
Utterly embarrassing for the #NWSL that the winner of the #WorldSevens takes home a $2m cash prize for a three day tournament and the salary cap in the NWSL is $3.5m.
do you think Gianni is embarrassed by his whole dog and pony show
I can't remember where exactly but there was an interview clip from championship week where she talked about wanting to be like Alex and the other USWNT players who came before her and fight for what's right
I think there's enough owners who would rather have a second-tier league with lower costs than a world-class league, which sucks. I'm not sure the long-term solution to that either, even if the Rodman contract is resolved.
I think you're right, but like the PA says the Spirit could just buy out her contract and avoid any salary cap issues if their projections are off.
The league is still in the "we have to just survive a couple more years" mindset from the first years of the league. I get it. I was there. But we're like, a decade older than either of the previous leagues. Its time for us to go to a thrive mindset instead of survive.
Nah she went to Denver
This is the most optimistic post I've seen by far on the Trin news.
Gotham dragged the Spirit into a coin flip of a game and they came up lucky. There really wasn't much else to it, it just depended on who won the finishing luck.
One more game for the NWSL Championship!
The Elo model favors Gotham FC over the Washington Spirit for the title, though it is in the range of a tossup.
The model generally prefers Gotham's xG performance in the last month or so, and they get credit for winning both playoff games on the road.
Create a fucking designated player exception. This league makes me so mad sometimes.
Semi-finals for the NWSL start tomorrow! Elo sees the Washington Spirit and Gotham FC as favorites, but neither is an overwhelming favorite, so an upset is definitely possible!
NWSL Probabilities for the semi-finals and finals ⚽
KC's loss has blown the whole thing open, and Gotham are the favorites following their upset win! Each of the 4 remaining teams have decent odds to win, and there's no runaway top team at this point.
The @americansocceranalysis.com model is driven by the possession value ratings of the players in the announced XIs.
The Elo model from @trevorl.bsky.social uses team xG and raw goals from the 2025 regular season.
The model from @qebrian.bsky.social uses xG and some strength adjustments.
NWSL playoff odds using my Elo model!
Kanas City Current are unsurprisingly favored heavily, but the field is open beyond them. Look out for Racing Louisville and Gotham FC, who both have good odds if they can get past their first round matchup.
It's an average number of points over 10,000 simulations, so the numbers aren't necessarily even. The final predicted positions and probabilities are more important at this stage 😄
