my dearest martha,
semis conductors are now higher for a 16th consecutive session. my fellow bears are taking heavy fire. supplies are running low. we are now forced to ration margin. though general kolanovic insists the tide will turn our way. prayers he is true. give my love to harrison and eliza
Thanks for a constructive discourse anyway.
Today felt different vs prior April sessions, as I described. You clearly were right pre today. Will see how it goes from here
…earlier stocks slid, SOX SMH slid, UST rates up, VX VIX almost back to contango, oil, crypto - all clearly reactive to Iran news (+ Warsh hawkish on rates).
Several block orders of SPX puts went through during the day, 1 month tenor.
So things were / are not “bullish vortex” albeit for TACO. 👊
So you are playing the taco, upstream from the bullish vortex.
Same wrt your earlier reply to someone re Iran escalation.
Call a spade a spade. A political trade.
I like to imagine 30 years ago we’d be sitting opposite each other and I’d be hunting you down with a stationary phone to throw at you after breaking my keyboard while you are counting your bonus.
Shoot the messenger!
(in jest)
Can we stay friends friends if I admit I want you to fail bad here?
🗿
INTC Intel Not my niche but seems newsflow well timed w mkt rally + hitting all the right keywords to supercharge stock:
4/1 - deal w Apollo in Ireland!
4/3 partner w Google AI!
4/7 Terafab w Spacex TSLA xAI!
4/9 more Google Ai and Cloud!
Excellent IR timing or serendipity
Obvi short macro or trade wiggles when the opportunity screams at you, etc.
But for us the “revelation” was that what was supposed to be “levered shitbeta” often lags pure beta ES in a healthy bull driven by MAG7 (ignoring the catalyst alpha ofc)
this👇🎯 re ES NQ vs RTY (NYMO etc) + our own revelation post 2020: LONG ES (or proxies) in bull mkt to pair w / hedge a L/S book of idio single names in biotech (catalysts + some spec sit like deep distressed + short crowded consensus).
Because narrow breadth in bull mkt = many singles left behind
CBOE’s actual text “0DTE trading gave Si Katara the time and mental space to be present for the precious moments of his daughter’s first year.”
I am not big on memes and snark but have a feeling this one is gonna be one for the ages.
Oh shit you said breadth is terrible to none other than him.
RIP
“Destructive policies, yet markets unchanged… people love buying assets” — nothing new under the Sun, bro. Same as always.
Chart: German DAX index 1930-1950, pushing up till Barbarossa
Or Ru MOEX index into 2022 Feb 22, despite loud warnings of impending invasion.
wake up, buy 0DTE puts, workout, come back, profit
+ exactly 1 yr ago 4/14-15 was also a local relief rally peak in S&P then down 6.6% bottoming 4/21.
“Tarifffs aren’t real and can’t hurt us” ≡ “Oil crisis isn’t real and won’t hurt us” ?
On the topic, a legendary doc
I don’t get this criticism against Hyperliquid or any other sizable alternative. ES futures opened down too, and then slowly recovered. Is Globex a poopie face dog com? Is CME now a shitco? Have we never seen dips or spikes that fully retrace, like on almost every Econ data release?
Hi Scott, what’s the link to your story?
Physical clearing ≠ paper (futs), so here’s one estimate I’m reading from a realist (I deliberately filter out perma-doomers and perma-oil bulls).
Just sharing to point out that the “SHTF” price is imminent, save for some miracle, or some drastic govt action (which would break things elsewhere)
+ 2008 may be a better analog macro.
Mkts, esp stocks, price 2026 Oil crisis as a paper/self-imposed one like Covid + tariffs.
But it’s a phys shortage w tangible effects onto every consumer small and large akin to GFC.
In 2008 oil peaked ~$145 on July 7th. LAGS!
www.macrotrends.net/1453/crude-o...
U may be right.
Timing may be imminent:
Andurand has posited that this month’s Oil futs roll may be inverse of the infamous Covid roll.
We’ve seen this roll / delivery / closeout dynamics contribute to the break in SI silver earlier this year.
Now guess when CL rolls? This coming week 🫨
Just for fun: SMH 441.54 SNDK 879.66 today’s ATH — maybe the highs for a while.
Or Monday, max.
Will get Aubrey Plaza as my prize if right.
No special insight, not short, but lots of talk today from peeps I respect that the top is in
bsky.app/profile/fron...
SNDK is ticking down, it’s like when you see rays of bright light coming from over the horizon and realize the nuclear mushroom is about to hit NQ
Very informative free daily data re Iran war and macro by BCA Research
www.bcaresearch.com/collection/b...
