"Adjusted for inflation, Trump wants to spend $260 billion more on the military in 2027 than the US did in 1945.
It isn’t World War II-level spending; it’s parody-level."
www.stephensemler.com/p/trumps-bud...
The widening gap between American war spending and public investment.
A lot of Americans aren't prepared for what's coming because they're not even paying attention to what's happening right now.
Chart by @stephensemler.bsky.social
1. This take denies the reality of economic hardship.
2. Biden had abandoned his quasi- progressive economic vision by March 2022.
3. Biden vowed to pandemic era protections permanent. He ended up not, and even went out his way to end several of them.
US budgets less for improving lives, more for ending them. Discretionary spending by function, constant 2026 dollars. This chart shows war spending increasing steadily since 2017 and shows public investment spending peaking in 2020 before steadily falling ever since. Trump’s 2027 budget includes $1.5 trillion in war spending and only $432.3 billion in public investment. Amounts reflect discretionary funding plus supplemental discretionary funding via reconciliation. Budget function 050 in war category; others minus 700, 750 in public investment. Data: Office of Management and Budget, Congressional Research Service.
Budgets are moral documents
www.stephensemler.com/p/trumps-bud...
The ADL has gone from a civil rights organization to a pro-Israel antisemitism tollbooth
bsky.app/profile/step...
Build baby build? Housing submarkets and the effects of new construction on existing rents Anthony Damiano and Chris Frenier aUniversity of Minnesota; bHealth Care Cost Institute ABSTRACT There is vigorous debate among scholars, and activists about the role that new market-rate apartments play in alleviating housing affordability issues at the neighborhood level. This study evaluates how new large (>50 units) market-rate apartment buildings affect rents in nearby buildings. In contrast to other recent work, we posit that the effects of new construction may vary by the quality of existing housing. We test this hypothesis by using a panel of building-level rents from Minneapolis, Minnesota, observed between 2000 and 2018. While we find no effect of new high-end housing on the market overall, we find countervailing effects of new construction on different parts of the rental market when broken out separately. We find that lower-priced rental housing close to new construction had rents 4.4% higher than those in other low-quality buildings farther away in the first 5 years after new construction. In contrast, we find that new construction had the opposite effect on higher-priced housing: rents were 1.7% lower near new construction. This study reiterates the importance of housing submarket theory and how focusing solely on average effects of housing interventions may miss important and nuanced effects across different parts of the market.
Newly published housing research! We find that the effects of new construction on rents varies by the quality of the existing housing. In the first 5 years rents went up 4.4% near low quality buildings and went down 1.7% near high quality buildings (1/x) 🧵
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Trump’s budget proposal didn’t fall from the sky. Where the president wants to take us, we’ve been headed for a while.
www.stephensemler.com/p/trumps-bud...
Here’s latest data I have for state/local police. Need to update.
www.stephensemler.com/p/did-we-def...
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Here’s police funding as well. Though only federal, not state/local.
Real data nerds wield the power of the pen for virtuous purposes
Your tax dollars at work, folks.
Nice to have company as I beat my head against the same wall, cheers
Also that Purdue food security data you cited is even more valuable now that Trump admin canceled the annual USDA survey.
Food insecurity in the United States increased in 2025 This Data Snapshot charts household food insecurity from January 2022 through November 2025.
Housing cost-burden for renters at an all-time high
Tapping the sign (AGAIN) that there are a lot of objective indicators saying people are struggling and economic indicators are in fact getting worse. It takes two seconds to look these things up.
US budgets less for improving lives, more for ending them. Discretionary spending by function, constant 2026 dollars. This chart shows war spending increasing steadily since 2017 and shows public investment spending peaking in 2020 before steadily falling ever since. Trump’s 2027 budget includes $1.5 trillion in war spending and only $432.3 billion in public investment. Amounts reflect discretionary funding plus supplemental discretionary funding via reconciliation. Budget function 050 in war category; others minus 700, 750 in public investment. Data: Office of Management and Budget, Congressional Research Service.
Budgets are moral documents
www.stephensemler.com/p/trumps-bud...
this is legitimately fascinating as an a real life demonstration of why trump is flailing
Trump’s budget proposal cuts $300 billion in public investments (infrastructure, health, agriculture, science, etc) but still increases overall spending by $361 billion. How? Record increases for war and policing.
This is how you budget for the 1%
www.stephensemler.com/p/trumps-bud...
Well said & thank you for supporting my work!
bsky.app/profile/step...
Trump’s budget proposal didn’t fall from the sky. Where the president wants to take us, we’ve been headed for a while.
www.stephensemler.com/p/trumps-bud...
The land of the free
What do you mean “ftfy”, that’s what I argue in the piece you didn’t read.
What do you mean “ftfy”, that’s what I argue in the piece you didn’t read.
Not as different as some would expect. Here’s the 2023 enacted budget:
www.stephensemler.com/p/only-about...
Right on. But current Dem leaders have ruled that out. They’ll vote for war powers resolutions, but refuse to touch war funding. E.g., Jeffries’ office discouraging Dems from offering amendments zeroing out the Big Beautiful Bill’s $157B in military spending.