New post:
"Elections 2026: London"
In my final preview I've split London into ten different battlegrounds to show how the capital's politics is evolving. With predictions for each borough.
In collaboration with the brilliant @londoncentric.media
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/elections-...
This is a long but fascinating read from @ldfreedman.bsky.social on how Ukraine has rapidly turned into a world leader in drone technology, and how that has got Russia worried.
Have the Ukrainians regained the lead in the drone race? The Russians seem to think so. In this post I look at the evidence that there has been a step change in Ukrainian capabilities. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...?
New post:
"Elections 2026: The Five Battlegrounds"
With national politics fragmenting I've sorted all councils up for election outside London into five groups to help explain how things are evolving.
Incl predictions for all 104 councils.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/elections-...
Nice obituary of Pete Duncan, the legendary scholar and teacher of Russian politics. Generations of students and colleagues benefitted from his kindness, his knowledge, and his academic rigour. A unique, and uniquely valuable, scholar. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/a...
“War exacts a toll so severe that only the clearest and most necessary purposes can justify it. If…Iran is still in the fight and still able to exact major military and economic costs, then it is fair to ask what purpose this war truly serves.”
warontherocks.com/tactical-suc...
With Orban comprehensively defeated in the Hungarian elections @samfr.bsky.social considers what lessons might be drawn in the wider struggle against the radical right (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-fall-o...
There was even a Linebacker 1 and a Linebacker 2
The great military historian Lawrence Freedman with an excellent summary of the causes of US defeat in Iran.
Please read consider following.
@ldfreedman.bsky.social
samf.substack.com/p/the-causes...
This is my assessment of why Trump’s war went so badly wrong. Underestimating an enemy and a belief in a quick victory are familiar sources of failure, compounded in this sense by incredible ultimatums and delusional claims. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
This is my assessment of why Trump’s war went so badly wrong. Underestimating an enemy and a belief in a quick victory are familiar sources of failure, compounded in this sense by incredible ultimatums and delusional claims. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
“Rather than discrete events with a beginning, a middle, and an end, wars might be better understood as the result of poor and dysfunctional political relations that are difficult to manage by nonviolent means,” wrote Lawrence Freedman in a 2025 essay.
New post out:
"Understanding MAGA"
I look at the four different strands that make up MAGA philosophy (such as it is), the contradictions between them, and whether it can survive as a movement post Trump.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/u...
I enjoyed doing this podcast with the ‘Not Just Money’ podcast, discussing the Iran War and much else.Top Military Strategist: How The Iran War Is Breaking Global Stability |... youtu.be/K2UznnEedm4?... via @YouTube
As proposals start to emerge for a ceasefire in the Iran War what chances to they have for success and what might be needed to get Iran to open the Strait (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...?
Lawrence Freedman’s new book On Strategists & Strategy.
Weekend reading: finished @ldfreedman.bsky.social’s On Strategists & Strategy, a delightfully eclectic collection of essays ranging from first person reminiscences to reflections on the implementation of strategy, Iraq, Ukraine and, with deadpan effect, the Barbie Movie.
I’ve just got back from a week in Washington DC, where Iran War main topic of discussion. I was struck by how the weakness of the administration means that it is ill equipped to deal south a crisis of this magnitude. samf.substack.com/p/trump-runs...
New post just out:
"Iran and the consequences for Britain"
We don't know how long the war will last but it's already caused enough damage to upend politics here.
I look at the economic and geopolitical rammifications + how government can respond.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...
While attention naturally focuses on Iran the war in Ukraine continues. Russia may be in the early stages of a spring offensive and so far it is not going well. I explore in this post (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/has-the-ru...
As has been the case for a long time, going by this well-evidenced and -written overview, what we're seeing in Ukraine isn't a stalemate that will eventually settle into a new fixed position, but rather two sides pushing hard against each other, grappling desperately for an advantage. Unstable, iow.
While attention naturally focuses on Iran the war in Ukraine continues. Russia may be in the early stages of a spring offensive and so far it is not going well. I explore in this post (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/has-the-ru...
If Trump wants to prevent a massive Republican defeat in the midterms how might he do this and how likely is it that he would succeed? Sam discusses his options and explains why it is not so easy, and the effort could harm Republicans. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-lifeli...
New post just out:
Can Trump steal the midterms?
He certainly wants to but it's no so easy. I look at all the things he could try and the challenges with each.
And why his attempts may hurt the Republicans rather than boost their chances.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
Very good, informative post as always. And I agree about Ossoff, definitely got the look of someone who could try for President one day.
Another post on this from Sam on Thursday.
The midterm elections in US have become even more important than before. Dems should win House but until recently assumed couldn’t win Senate. Has this changed. Sam looks at 9 key states. £/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-lifeli...
“His basic problem, whatever his bones tell him, is that even if Trump wanted to declare the war over today and order a ceasefire then there is no guarantee that Iran would follow.” A brilliant essay from @ldfreedman.bsky.social on the war in Iran. samf.substack.com/p/the-split-...
True
I agree. I think there is an internal debate about how far they should go, although IRGC in driving seat. I don’t know enough about it but I recall from Ukrainian discussions on Black Sea de-mining that mines are easier to spot mow than they used to be.
The quality of this external analysis is in sharp contrast to the absurd carelessnesss of the principal actors