What an amazing opportunity

Purple Bountiful 2022 a precursor to Blue Bountiful?

A picture is worth 1,000 words--and 6,995 new active Democratic voters!

Utah statewide YTD thru 4/13/2026 (vs. -343 new active Republican voters YTD)

Note most new Dems this year have registered since historicturnout at local Democratic caucuses just 4 weeks ago. Huge success. #BlueWave2026

A picture is worth 1,000 words--and 6,995 new active Democratic voters!

Utah statewide YTD thru 4/13/2026 (vs. -343 new active Republican voters YTD)

Note most new Dems this year have registered since historicturnout at local Democratic caucuses just 4 weeks ago. Huge success. #BlueWave2026

Few Americans paid attention to this aspect of Trump's agenda, but it was predictable (and predicted by me) that this would happen. Trump is arguably the most anti-legal immigration president ever. Congress should stop him before the damage is permanent. www.cato.org/blog/trump-h...

https://www.cato.org/blog/trump-has-cut-legal-immigration-more-illegal-immigration

Trump has cut legal immigration more than illegal immigration, as I predicted. While illegal entries have fallen, they continued a prior trend, falling more before he came back. Meanwhile, Trump has drastically cut legal entries, reversing the prior upward trend. www.cato.org/blog/trump-h...

Women in Their 20s May Not Be Having Babies, but by 45 Most Probably Will

The record-low U.S. birthrate could be temporary as today’s young women postpone pregnancy. Gift link:

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/u...

A lot of Orbán's American fans are saying that this election proved he was never an authoritarian in the first place.

This is completely wrong — and, in fact, betrays a complete misunderstanding of both Hungarian politics and modern authoritarianism.

Here's why.

How did Hungary's biggest cities vote?

Budapest - Tisza+33
Debrecen - Tisza+23
Szeged - Tisza+39
Miskolc - Tisza+29
Pécs - Tisza+31
Győr - Tisza+25
Nyíregyháza - Tisza+31
Kecskemét - Tisza+25
Székesfehérvár - Tisza+22
Szombathely - Tisza+19
Érd - Tisza+26
Szolnok - Tisza+29
Tatabánya - Tisza+24

Less than three hours after the polls closed, Viktor Orban conceded that he lost. Five years after Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, he still falsely claims that he won.

Tomorrow, I offer my analysis of what this means for the midterms. Subscribe now. bit.ly/4qmEiFz

Im so excited about Hungary.

Last summer I took students to Europe and in Budapest we talked about how backsliding occurs.

I guess I need to do it again and rather than "Threats to Democracy" I should retitle it "Democracy Finds a Way"

People will be closely studying how Hungary's opposition pulled off their win in such a pro-incumbent system. Important to note that the theme was corruption. Democrats need to get much better at calling out Trump's corruption.

no one is doing it like jd vance, a loser across three continents in a single weekend

New York Times and WSJ editors continue to trivialize massive pro-democracy demonstrations. Analysis of "No Kings 3" front pages. Local editors continue to shine. New York Times and Wall Street Journal leadership continue to downplay and minimize mass demonstrations while editors of smaller outlets do a better job communicating these vital pro-democracy events.

See our grades & analysis of 75 + front pages for #NoKings 3.0 coverage.

The influential @nytimes.com @wsj.com continue trivialize the pro-democracy movement & #NoKings mass demonstrations.

Good news: editors of local outlets continue to shine.

🧵 w/many front pages and link to blog post

1/n

Democrats actually did even better in heavily Hispanic Dalton than in the first round, which was already a massive swing from Kamala’s 2024 performance.

Shawn Harris won these two Hispanic-majority precincts by 73% — +3 from in March and a whopping 51% improvement over 2024.

GOP bloodbath in municipal and state races tonight

LDS voters have moved to the left faster than any other group in recent years. Will that trend continue? No group has moved leftward faster politically in the past 20 years than U.S. Latter-day Saints. They're still solidly Republican but less so. A few theories on why, and whether the trend will continu...

An analysis of some of the most robust and current data on Americans’ political views is decisive: No group has lurched leftward faster in their political party identification during the past 20 years than members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

www.sltrib.com/religion/202...

Hitler and the Nazi Party equated themselves with Christianity -- the result was Germany becoming one of the most atheist countries after the war.

It is in Christianity's own interest to rebuff Trump's attempts to co-opt Christianity to legitimize his immoral behavior.

Here's a really practical thing you can do today: If you know a US citizen in a relationship with someone who is/could be facing deportation, get them connected to American Families United. AFU is a truly bipartisan org doing amazing support work.

www.americanfamiliesunited.org

And most running, to be sure, are not ex-Republicans

100%

And record-breaking attendance at the Utah County DEM convention: HUNDREDS attended.

Dems contesting a historic 13/15 legislative HD seats.

Dozens and dozens registered/fading Republicans attended, incl. several ex-Republican Dem candidates who are mad as heck at the MAGA UT state legislature.

Democrats should see the this (anti-)MAGA era since 2015 as a huge victory as over half of 2016 McMullin anti-Trump voters have now voted for Biden and Harris.

That's huge! *Over half* of these often well-educated Republicans! And their resistance to MAGA GOP extremism is growing.

And they vote.

If you're keeping score, the LDS *vote* has swung 28 points LEFT since 2004 GW Bush peak 1 (R +61 in 2004 vs. R +33 in 2024) or -46% vs. a -35% decline in R vs. D voter *self-ID* (R +51 vs. R +33).

Compared to Romney 2012 peak, LDS vote has swung 36 points or -52% LEFT/anti-MAGA (R +69 vs R +33) 👀

To be clear, this Anti-MAGA LDS GOP persuasion is reinforced by a *separate long-term cohort replacement* where older, Republican LDS voters are replaced by unaffiliated, single, multiracial, and educated voters covered well by @tamarrakemsley.bsky.social in her piece
www.sltrib.com/religion/202...

IMO, I view LDS/Mormon vote choice as far more interesting & consequential than how they identify.

Just as Reagan Democrats held onto a Democratic identity while voting increasingly Republican, I see three elections in a row where Romney Republicans keep voting anti-MAGA (McMullin-Biden-Harris).

2017 overperformance: D+10
2018 result: D+8.6 (we’ll say D+9)

2021 overperformance: R+5
2022 result: R+2.7 (R+3)

2025 overperformance: D+13.5 (D+14)

if 2026 follows trends, we can expect D+11-12

Thank you. This is very helpful.

Counting What We Lose Sociologist Elizabeth Wrigley-Field wonders, "If your own life is shorter than it could have been, what does that mean?"

Grateful to my college for this generous write-up of my work, which does a nice job of getting at what I’m trying to do

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....