Why I don't expect liberal democracy to go away any time soon: My article on the resilience of liberal democracy, published in @jeppjournal.bsky.social.
Perfectly timed to the day after Orbáns defeat and a small spike in "democracy-optimism".
There are, I argue, good reasons for such optimism.
Millions of people in Sudan are surviving on just one meal a day, as the country's food crisis deepens and threatens to spread, per report published on Monday by a group of non-governmental organizations.
@au.dk is hiring 3 postdocs (2 yrs) on personality cults & strategic communication in autocracies, led by Jakob Tolstrup & Alexander Baturo. They're looking for profiles with text-as-data, survey experiments and/or Chinese politics experience. Start fall 2026. Looks like a great opportunity!
The article is open access: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
It's part of an exciting SI on the self-reinforcing/self-undermining features of liberal orders. Thanks to @cknill.bsky.social , Laura Seelkopf, Bernhard Zangl, Andreas Kruck & Berthold Rittberger for putting it together!
Key take-aways:
- Liberal democracies are generally very resilient to regime breakdown and to autocratizing changes, more specifically.
- These resilience-characteristics do not seem to changed much (if anything) in recent decades
-Strong economic performance further bolsters resilience
Why I don't expect liberal democracy to go away any time soon: My article on the resilience of liberal democracy, published in @jeppjournal.bsky.social.
Perfectly timed to the day after Orbáns defeat and a small spike in "democracy-optimism".
There are, I argue, good reasons for such optimism.
A lot of Orbán's American fans are saying that this election proved he was never an authoritarian in the first place.
This is completely wrong — and, in fact, betrays a complete misunderstanding of both Hungarian politics and modern authoritarianism.
Here's why.
Better-paid local politicians reduce corruption and increase procurement efficiency primarily through selection rather than electoral incentives doi.org/10.1017/S000...
With Hungary’s crucial election a few days away, its National Election Office has published a list of accredited international observers (n. 859). Having spent nearly a decade researching the behavior of international observers, I decided to take a closer look 😊
www.valasztas.hu/en/internati...
So what happens next? Assuming Orbán’s Fidesz is declared the winner, look for the 153 fake observers to be paraded before the media so that their positive endorsement of the flawed poll can be quickly and loudly disseminated.
Ignore them, wait for the preliminary statement of the OSCE/ODIHR.
@plutscher.bsky.social, @draege.bsky.social und @chknutsen.bsky.social untersuchen am Beispiel der Türkei, welche Auswirkungen Regierungspropaganda in elektoralen (im Gegensatz zu besser erforschten geschlossenen) Autokratien hat (OA 🔓): doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Logo for the European Journal of Political Research displaying the text "EJPR European Journal of Political Research" in cream letters on a blue background, accompanied by the hashtag "#OpenAccess".
#OpenAccess from @ejprjournal.bsky.social -
The effects of government propaganda in electoral authoritarian regimes: Evidence from Turkey - https://cup.org/3NGDtu8
- @plutscher.bsky.social, Jonas Bergan Draege & @chknutsen.bsky.social
#FirstView
🆕 #Propaganda & #Authoritarianism 💭
Philipp M. Lutscher, Jonas Bergan Draege & @chknutsen.bsky.social
explore how government propaganda shapes political behaviour in polarized electoral authoritarian regimes using preregistered survey data from Turkey
Very happy and proud to have co-authored this paper in @ejprjournal.bsky.social, with @plutscher.bsky.social & @chknutsen.bsky.social 😊
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Please see Philipp's 🧵 below for the main findings 😊
(7/8) Notably, the deterrent effect on opponents weakened considerably during the 2023 campaign, when mobilization was already high and alternative narratives more accessible.
(5/8) Opponents exposed to propaganda videos report heightened anger and anxiety. Supporters report a stronger sense of societal belonging. These are consistent, robust findings across both experiments and both videos we tested.
@ejprjournal.bsky.social even timed the publication to my birthday 🎉😀
More seriously: so happy to see this published, and grateful to have worked with and learned from @plutscher.bsky.social & @draege.bsky.social
Propaganda—>Diff’t Emotions—>Protest behavior
Check out Philipp’s thread 👇
Join us for our first APSG-APSA Democracy & Autocracy roundtable!
With Anya Schiffrin (@columbiasipa.bsky.social), Bardia Rahmani (Harvard), Erin Baggott Carter (USC, @hooverinstitution.bsky.social), @linettelim.bsky.social (@ucdpolitics.bsky.social) and @scottrw630.bsky.social (@ox.ac.uk).
"the decline in [academic freedom in] the United States has been more rapid and pronounced, particularly in the last year. It has deteriorated by 50% from 2015 to 2025 and is now evaluated as moderate autonomy by country experts" academic-freedom-index.net/research/Aca...
Our decisions are based solely on criteria specific to this project. Those criteria can be viewed in full in the V-Dem Country Coding Unit reference document:
v-dem.net/documents/72...
8(8)
💡What is a V-Dem Country Coding Unit?
A V-Dem “country” is a political unit enjoying at least some degree of functional and/or formal sovereignty. Watch the video or read in the thread to find out more. 👇
🧵1(8)
#PoliSky #PoliSciSky #PolDataSky #PoliticalScienceData
#VDemMethodology #VDemDataset
Freedom House, Bright Light Watch and V-Dem this week all told dire stories about American democracy under Trump. But the details were different---and they matter. newrepublic.com/article/2080...
The grand grift and corruption in this administration is startling and makes all Americans far worse off.
Grand corruption on this scale destroys states and societies.
Nu er det simpelthen ved at blive for meget tegneserie-diktatur til, at jeg tror på, at det fortsat er sandt
I want to introduce a statistical measurement called ‘Value Under Cardboard President’ or VUCP, which measures the harm Trump does relative to a president made of cardboard that does nothing whatsoever.
NEW: Ukraine has been imposing increasing challenges on Russia at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels since the beginning of 2026. 🧵 (1/10)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar031926
Not once does this story mention that offering a federal job in exchange for a political favor is a crime
I should have added that the main responsibility always lies on authors to make things clear and accessible and reduce room for misinterpretations!
And, just to be clear, it was not directed specifically towards you (it could serve as much a reminder to myself as to anyone else).
use
sometimes scores change a bit not due to expert coders changing their minds, but to some experts quitting and others entering.
These issues are exacerbated for countries where there are few expert coders. Generally, validity of the V-Dem data is even better when nr experts is high.
