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Posts by Pavel Podvig

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Видео Peter Watkins - The War Game (1965) | OK.RU In this British documentary, a hypothetical Chinese invasion of South Vietnam triggers a new world war between East and West. In the town of Rochester, Kent, the anticipation of a nuclear attack leads...

60 yrs ago today, “The War Game”—the shocking docudrama written/directed/produced by Peter Watkins—had the first of four invitation-only screenings at the British Film Institute’s National Film Theatre in London for members of the establishment after the BBC banned its broadcast on October 6, 1965.

5 days ago 32 10 9 2
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A long look at a QUICK STRIKE The grim realities of a faux nuclear war plan from 1958

For DOOMSDAY MACHINES this week, a post that has in some sense been in the making for something like a decade. It is a very close look at the "war plan," QUICK STRIKE, featured in the formerly classified 1958 film "The Power of Decision," produced for the USAF. doomsdaymachines.net/p/a-long-loo...

1 week ago 85 32 4 5

What a nuclear crisis looks like in NUKEMAP logs... these are hourly unique visitors over the last 24 hours, via Cloudflare.

1 week ago 50 15 0 3
Still, Alex Wellerstein, a historian who studies nuclear conflicts, said that even if Mr. Trump does not carry out the extent of his threat, the president’s violent rhetoric damages his credibility as a negotiator and his country’s standing in the world.

Still, Alex Wellerstein, a historian who studies nuclear conflicts, said that even if Mr. Trump does not carry out the extent of his threat, the president’s violent rhetoric damages his credibility as a negotiator and his country’s standing in the world.

This is pretty much the mildest thing I said about the current situation... perhaps for the best, though... every time I talk to a reporter I come away feeling totally unhinged, because I'm being asked "normal" questions about totally insane things.

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...

1 week ago 80 23 2 0

The reason that the US President has the exclusive authority to order the use of nuclear weapons is because Truman set up the system along those lines after WWII. This is often depicted as either a power grab, or because in the nuclear age such decisions "must" be made quickly. This is false.

1 week ago 441 107 5 18
Image of a space launcher leaving a launch pad.

Image of a space launcher leaving a launch pad.

New Meridian-M communication satellite is in orbit russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

2 weeks ago 2 0 0 0
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The US–Israeli History Behind Their War Against Iran Any debates about nuclear security in the Middle East need to be set within the broader historical context of US and Israeli efforts to advance their interests in the region.

A good take on the context of the war in Iran by Sara Al-Sayed for @ucs.org - The US–Israeli History Behind Their War Against Iran blog.ucs.org/sara-al-saye...

3 weeks ago 7 4 0 0
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Middle East war live: Trump sets 48-hour deadline for Iran to open Strait of Hormuz US president threatens to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power plants if waterway is not opened for shipping

1. Hitting civilian power plants is a war crime
2. The US has been committing this war crime, to my knowledge, at least since the raid on Hanoi in which John McCain was shot down, which targeted an electric power plant in a dense urban setting giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

3 weeks ago 306 98 10 0

Post on the website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/03... and on Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf... (Subscribe to get these updates by email. It's free). 2/2

4 weeks ago 2 0 0 0
A shot of the Karelia submarine in 2019

A shot of the Karelia submarine in 2019

Karelia Project 667BDRM/Delta IV submarine is preparing to resume service after a medium overhaul that included refueling (previous one in 2009). 16 Sineva/R-29RM missiles with up to 4 warheads each. (h/t @mrfrantarelli.bsky.social and @thelookout.bsky.social). Links follow 1/2

4 weeks ago 8 1 2 0
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On the Origins and Significance of the Limit Demarcating Low-Enriched Uranium from Highly Enriched Uranium - Science & Global Security Archive

There is this too :-) scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/2016...

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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Uranium enriched to 60% is, of course, already a weapon-grade material in that it does not require further enrichment. A relevant paper from Science & Global Security. Lower enrichments, even HALEU, will work too. And design doesn't have to be implosion. scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/2025...

1 month ago 24 8 0 1
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The Program on Science and Global Security invites applications for the Princeton School on Science and Global Security to be held July 27-31, 2026 at the International Center for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy. Applications close on April 17, 2026 sgs.princeton.edu/school2026

1 month ago 5 5 1 0

The Russian way of war is not working either. Maybe it's war that is the problem?

1 month ago 49 10 1 1
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Iran is a crucial test case for the American way of war The conflict in Ukraine seemed to cast doubt on a military model based on overwhelming air power

"If the American way of war can’t work against Iran, a weak regime with a middling military, there is no chance that it will work in a much harder case — China, say." Excellent piece by Jacquelyn Schneider www.ft.com/content/9fae...

1 month ago 45 14 2 3
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Satellite company @planet.com has announced a *14 day delay* to the release of imagery in the MidEast.

This will be a huge setback for those trying to verify events in the region.

1 month ago 73 38 3 9
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Billions of dollars, decades of progress spent eliminating devastating diseases may be lost with undoing of USAID Public health campaigns had made significant strides toward eradicating diseases like elephantitis and river blindness. But this progress has since unraveled with the second Trump administration.

Billions of dollars, decades of progress spent eliminating devastating diseases may be lost with undoing of USAID.
theconversation.com/billions-of-...

1 month ago 94 52 3 4

The British press, especially Daily Mail etc are best to be avoided. I had something like that (on a smaller scale) a couple of years ago. And they didn't even contact me...

1 month ago 1 0 0 0

Sorry, no. I haven't seen anything

1 month ago 2 0 0 0
Quote from a book (in Russian) that describes ethanol quotas in the Soviet military industry

Quote from a book (in Russian) that describes ethanol quotas in the Soviet military industry

It's only partially a joke that the entire Soviet military industrial complex was a ploy to get access to a legal source of ethanol... (From elib.biblioatom.ru/text/tremaso...)

1 month ago 6 0 0 0

In January @russianforces.org pointed out odd behaviour from the Russian ELS/TUNDRA satellite early warning system. The co-ordinated westward drift in apogee longitude appears to have ended in a co-ordinated manner. 🧵⬇️

bsky.app/profile/coas...

1 month ago 10 2 1 0
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Apply now to the Scoville Fellowship! ⤵️
bsky.app/profile/scov...

1 month ago 1 1 0 0
Quand le Hoggar devint théâtre d’un essai nucléaire10 – Mémoire atomique à In Ecker.
Quand le Hoggar devint théâtre d’un essai nucléaire10 – Mémoire atomique à In Ecker. YouTube video by Health At Work SETIF

The French nuclear test on May 1, 1962. It is known as the Béryl incident - apparently, there was serious release of radioactivity. But the film does not mention it at all. Maybe that was why it was made www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHMr... The explosion is at 11:45.

2 months ago 9 3 0 0
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Of course. But it would be okay to say "at Lop Nur site" then. I wouldn't make much of it, but I thought it's interesting to note.

2 months ago 0 0 0 0

Note that Yeaw said "right near to Lop Nur site" www.youtube.com/live/LHEdJ5e... cc: @stevenjgibbons.bsky.social

2 months ago 7 1 1 0

There is a reason "only" is in parentheses.

2 months ago 1 0 0 0

Surprise, surprise--the military say that they are the (only) people to deal with the threat that they have identified.

2 months ago 8 1 2 0

There are some interesting details, like people in Morocco(?) watching B-52s. Or the idea of rescue missions in the enemy territory. Or "We failed in our mission. 60 million casualties."

2 months ago 7 0 1 0

Wouldn't it be correct to say that the war in Ukraine has shown that Russian "escalate to de-escalate" is not a thing?

2 months ago 12 1 3 0
Nuclear War • Power of Decision (1958)
Nuclear War • Power of Decision (1958) YouTube video by Nuclear Vault

A fascinating film from 1958, originally classified (h/t @wellerstein.bsky.social). The insanity of the scenario is staggering. Not to mention that the Soviet Union had, like, one and a half bomber. (In a way, it's anti-House of Dynamite, everybody is very calm.) youtu.be/jbSI6Tyc6AQ?...

2 months ago 25 2 1 1