It’s a story of someone over his head, reckless, ignorant, and deaf. Half the things he’s learned this year a 6-year-old could have told him.

@patsignoret.bsky.social this is funny.

Regime change via bombing can (excuse the pun) backfire. It’s way too early to glean how this will turn out.

Iran’s new power struggle 
www.economist.com/the-world-in...

Indicador IMEF: "En febrero de 2026, tanto el Indicador IMEF Manufacturero como el No Manufacturero
mostraron señales de mejora moderada, aunque dentro de un entorno aún frágil." www.indicadorimef.org.mx/boletines/20...

Trump loses his tariff power YouTube video by Paul Krugman

An update: We're now starting to see how much Trump lost with the tariff ruling www.youtube.com/watch?v=El0K...

Two different measures of business inflation expectations have essentially returned to pre-pandemic levels.

The Atlanta Fed survey (dark line) asks businesses how much they expect their own unit costs to change

The Cleveland Fed survey (teal) asks business executives where they expect CPI to run

An Illustrated History of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Greater polarization amongst businesses

Donald Trump’s tariffs exert heavy burden on midsized US companies

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Best of luck at your new job!

Americans think everyone is corrupt Voters have weird views about this, and progressive advocacy groups do a lot that’s counterproductive.

@mattyglesias.bsky.social Regarding this: open.substack.com/pub/matthewy...

The Mexican government's motives are closer to those of Russia than to those of Norway.

Grateful to the Iowa State University Department of Economics for their Outstanding Alumni Award. I’m thankful for the professors and colleagues who shaped my thinking — and I try to carry that forward in my work every day.

It’s fun to read of how Jethro teaches Moses the power of delegating in Exodus 18.

EVERCORE: “DOGE failed.”

@patsignoret.bsky.social

“.. the narrowing of the trade deficit we have experienced in the wake of the front-running of tariffs may be fading. It shows that the low-hanging fruit on adjustments to supply chains, including switching to domestic manufacturers, has been plucked.”

@kpmgus.bsky.social
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

happening this morning in Minneapolis -- ICE agents drawing guns on observers. I reiterate again that it is only a matter of time before DHS kills more innocent people in Minnesota. Congress needs to shut this shit down right now.

Hear, hear!

China’s Debt-to-GDP Ratio Tops 300% in 2025 on Slower Economic Growth, Think Tank Says

1/4
Yicai: "China's macro leverage ratio – a measure of total debt relative to nominal GDP – rose by 11.8 percentage points to 302.3 percent in 2025, exceeding the 10.1 point increase recorded in 2024, according to a new research report by CASS.
www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-...

"expecting lending standards generally to remain unchanged and demand to strengthen across all loan categories"
"more likely to approve loans to firms benefiting from high AI exposure"

2/2

The January 2026 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

"tighter lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes"
"unchanged lending standards and weaker demand across most categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans"
www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/s...

1/2

Confirms reacceleration thesis. Warsh or te least the FOMC may be disappoint Trump.

The Schoolchildren of Minneapolis As thousands of ICE agents arrived, kids started staying home from school. A local principal, teachers, and parent volunteers have banded together to keep the families safe.

The Schoolchildren of Minneapolis www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...

ICE’s Assault on a Minnesota School District Liam Ramos, whose photo became a symbol of Operation Metro Surge, is one of several students in Columbia Heights who are now in federal custody.

Painful to read but we must bear witness and be informed.

ICE Assault on a Minnesota School District www.newyorker.com/news/the-led...

the 'bitcoin is digital gold' crowd has gone awfully quiet

MAGA military geniuses are talking about Minnesota protestors like they are the Iraqi insurgency, the Taliban, and the Viet Cong all rolled into one.

How ICE Already Knows Who Minneapolis Protesters Are

A Minnesota woman observing ICE agents in her car was cornered on one-way streets. An agent approached, called her by name—citing facial recognition. Days later, her Global Entry and TSA privileges were revoked, with no explanation.

Six EU countries hold call in push for 'two‑speed' Europe Ministers from six leading European economies, including Germany and France, will discuss on Wednesday plans to push ahead with joint projects without the rest of the EU, to facilitate agile decision-...

A real change in how Germany approaches the EU is happening. Berlin used to prioritise the unity of the 27 and now seems much more open towards coalitions of the willing.

Next step is initiative by Finance minister Klingenbeil to build an avant-garde with 🇫🇷🇵🇱🇮🇹🇳🇱🇪🇸:

Donald Trump increases tariffs on South Korea to 25% US president accuses Seoul of ‘not living up to’ agreement struck with Washington last year

The lesson of the past two weeks, whether you’re the EU, South Korea or any other trading nation: you may THINK you have a “deal” with Donald Trump.

You don’t. 🤡

@financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/9982...

Good. And I hope to hear from Republican senators (more than the few speaking up). Also, it is not just about training. It’s about the mandate and cover they’ve been given by their leaders and their individual ethics.

The killing of Alex Pretti is a heartbreaking tragedy. It should also be a wake-up call to every American, regardless of party, that many of our core values as a nation are increasingly under assault.