yes use git worktree and start multiple instances of cursor/agents

yes this seems to be a fundamental disagreement - i don’t think information is truth but the current price signal is a truth seeking mechanism that is always in flux, high liquidity markets are useful for making decisions with info that approximates truth.

what’s your point here? LA is a fire prone area, no one is making the assumption of having zero chances of fires.

and yes insurance do try to sell you policies that are not useful and risk free for them.

I know this is very controversial and not all markets will be accepted by the public, which is important, but assuming it’s default bad is not the for the best.

i don’t mind, you’ve been the most respectful of the bluesky bunch attacking me today. i picked to defend prediction markets in general because I want them to exist and I see a monoculture here, no one is pushing back against the idea and everyone agreed that this is unquestionably bad.

i don’t meaning caring in the positive connotation, them dropping the insurance is the signal that they’re not confident they’ll make money on this trade (also they were legally not allowed to raise premiums so it’s likely a combination of both).

boot licker of what exactly? information discovery mechanisms?

Thousands of Los Angeles homeowners were dropped by their insurers before the Palisades Fire About 1,600 policies for Pacific Palisades homeowners were dropped by State Farm in July, the state insurance office says.

> insurance companies have NO fucking incentive in your house becoming ashes

www.cbsnews.com/news/fires-c...

there’s story going around that insurance policy for the palisades was canceled because they predicted unpreparedness for the fires. insurance companies are in the business to care.

if you’re in a community where this is common, it’s no different than what insurance companies already do regarding home and fire policy. your safety is already being priced the market will give a live feed of it.

but the price of this market is not the only signal, total market value matters more. for someone to make enough money on a market it would have to have significant money poured in from both buy and sell sides.

I’m defending prediction markets in general but the fact that such a market exists will itself be a signal and cause for concern.

no, markets are not a new innovation and crypto is not new either. the prediction markets conceptually advance journalism rather than technology. i understand real money for these markets is controversial which is why I really like manifold, fake money same concept but maybe less efficient.

i don’t mind that, it’s not much of an argument.

bsky.app/profile/arpi...
i thought you were making fun of me nick, why delete the comment.

im choosing truth and it’s utility for making better decisions

bsky.app/profile/arpi...

i choose to see it as a live indicator of actionable information, no different than actuaries and journalism. th money is grease to make the price outcomes be the product of self honesty.

the price is a signal of sentiment, people already have the incentive to burn and put out fires which is all being tracked in the real world by authorities, this allows for amplifying whatever they stood to gain but the incentive is already there the police are already after them.

do you think this also not incentivising betters to form fire brigades if the price goes up? why do you not see that as positive?

then you don’t get the early buying upside, if you’re not gonna buy early then what’s the point of taking the risk of going to burn houses.

which the authorities can track by looking for wild immediate swings in price, besides it’s not any less abhorrent than actual gangs in LA setting fires so they can loot houses.

nothing wrong with this, prediction markets are a truth discovery mechanism. it’s giving you a live sentiment tracker of future events happening.

i just opened bluesky to vouch for judah, he’s great.