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Posts by Nicole Grajewski

Print book cover and e-reader version of 'Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine' showing text with symbols from each country including drones.

Print book cover and e-reader version of 'Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine' showing text with symbols from each country including drones.

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‘A fresh understanding of this relationship. Compelling and well supported by evidence.’ @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social

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1 week ago 6 3 1 0
Iran is not a client of Russia's. It is a state with its own revolutionary logic, its own regional reach and its own willingness to confront American power. During this war, by militarizing the Strait of Hormuz, it has demonstrated that it can generate effects that will be quickly and amply felt across the world. It can exert pressure on the United States in ways that Russia, bogged down in Ukraine, cannot. If anything, for Russia these past few weeks have demonstrated precisely Iran's worth.
Iran's path to ending the war on acceptable terms will narrow if fighting resumes and could close entirely if the fighting continues at length. If the Islamic republic falls, no other country in Russia's orbit can fill its role. China is too integrated into the global economy. North Korea, which has supplied Russia with weapons and soldiers in Ukraine, cannot project power far beyond the Korean Peninsula.

Iran is not a client of Russia's. It is a state with its own revolutionary logic, its own regional reach and its own willingness to confront American power. During this war, by militarizing the Strait of Hormuz, it has demonstrated that it can generate effects that will be quickly and amply felt across the world. It can exert pressure on the United States in ways that Russia, bogged down in Ukraine, cannot. If anything, for Russia these past few weeks have demonstrated precisely Iran's worth. Iran's path to ending the war on acceptable terms will narrow if fighting resumes and could close entirely if the fighting continues at length. If the Islamic republic falls, no other country in Russia's orbit can fill its role. China is too integrated into the global economy. North Korea, which has supplied Russia with weapons and soldiers in Ukraine, cannot project power far beyond the Korean Peninsula.

The potential collapse of Iran, a valuable partner for Russia, poses a concern for Putin’s regime. Iran’s unique revolutionary logic, regional reach, and ability to confront US power make it irreplaceable for Russia www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/o... By @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social #putinism #Islamism

1 week ago 8 4 1 0
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Opinion | For Putin, Iran Is Something Close to Irreplaceable

@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social: "Mr. Putin has spent years building a coalition of the discontented around the premise that authoritarian states can outlast Western pressure... Iran, which has absorbed the most pressure and held the longest, is his proof of concept."
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/o...

1 week ago 6 5 0 0
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Analysts say potential US operation to seize Iran's Kharg Island would be risky The Pentagon is considering the seizure of Iran's Kharg Island. It's a risky operation, and Iran could retaliate by targeting the biggest energy facilities in the Gulf, sending prices soaring.

In an NPR interview, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social describes Kharg Island as the “crown jewel” of Iran’s oil infrastructure, highlighting the potential consequences of a US seizure:

www.npr.org/2026/03/26/n...

3 weeks ago 3 2 0 0
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Exclusive: U.S. can only confirm about a third of Iran's missile arsenal destroyed, sources say The assessment, which has not been previously reported, shows that while most of Iran's missiles are either destroyed or inaccessible, Tehran still has a significant missile inventory.

"The United States can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran's vast missile arsenal" www.reuters.com/world/middle...

3 weeks ago 57 25 2 5

I've said this before, but part of why I continue to be bleak on prospects of prompt war termination are because Iran has *very strong incentives* to continue pain infliction (against the US/Israel/GCC and the broader world) to deter a future war by credibly communicating the magnitude of costs.

3 weeks ago 1115 276 27 16
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The Stunning Failure of Iranian Deterrence And why it augurs a more dangerous world.

Much of this is also a consequence of how Iran mismanaged its post-Oct 2023 approach to deterrence, as @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and I discussed last week; the new constellation of Iranian leaders have learned: www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/stunnin...

3 weeks ago 87 10 1 1
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How Is the Iran War Affecting Russia? With Nicole Grajewski and Sergey Vakulenko Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by his colleagues Nicole Grajewski, a non-resident fellow at Carnegie Endowment and the author of Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine, and Se...

🎧 NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social, and Sergey Vakulenko discuss what the war in Iran means for Moscow. How does it affect Russian influence in the region, and its position on global energy markets?

1 month ago 6 3 0 0
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The Stunning Failure of Iranian Deterrence And why it augurs a more dangerous world.

The United States’ actions in Iran are making nuclear weapons look “more attractive than ever,” warn @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and @nktpnd.bsky.social. Today, “would-be nuclear states understand the urgency of developing a weapon in secret.”

1 month ago 23 12 1 2
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The Stunning Failure of Iranian Deterrence And why it augurs a more dangerous world.

Iran’s weakening deterrence capabilities point to a deeper strategic problem unfolding today.

@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and @nktpnd.bsky.social unpack the forces behind Iran’s military expansion and the vulnerabilities now coming forward: www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/stunnin...

1 month ago 5 2 0 0
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The Stunning Failure of Iranian Deterrence And why it augurs a more dangerous world.

In the words of the late IRGC Aerospace Force commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh, deterrence is like riding a bicycle: “You have to keep pedaling all the time, or else the bicycle will fall.” In the end, Iran lost its balance and its deterrent fell with it. www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/stunnin...

1 month ago 17 2 1 0
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States observing Iran are unlikely to conclude that restraint or compliance enhances security. The stronger takeaway is the opposite: concealment, speed, and irreversible capability offer greater protection.

1 month ago 38 16 1 4

Iran’s deterrent did not collapse because any single pillar failed, but because each pillar eroded in ways that compounded the others. Together, they produced the very outcome Iran sought to prevent: a large-scale preventive attack.

1 month ago 8 1 1 0

This left Iran in a structurally unstable position. Iran was close enough to a bomb to invite preventive action, but not capable enough to deter it. Its threshold status became a zone of vulnerability rather than protection.

1 month ago 6 0 1 0

Transparency under the JCPOA and subsequent public signaling of nuclear advances made Iran’s program legible. Adversaries had unusually high confidence in what they needed to target and where. With each step, Iran further reduced uncertainty about its capabilities and intentions.

1 month ago 6 0 1 0

The most consequential failure was the nuclear pillar. Iran pursued a threshold strategy—retaining the material, expertise, and infrastructure for rapid breakout without crossing the line—but did so in a way that made it more legible and exposed to preventive attack.

1 month ago 5 0 1 0

The Axis of Resistance, intended as a buffer, became a liability. The autonomy of these groups created escalation risks Iran could not control and helped consolidate a counter-coalition rather than deter one.

1 month ago 5 0 1 0

Missiles, once the most credible pillar, became a source of exposure. Starting with Operation True Promise I in 2024, Iran revealed operational patterns and limitations while providing adversaries with a vast amount of data.

1 month ago 6 0 2 0
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The core argument is not that Iran lacked capabilities. It is that it misused them. Each pillar was revealed, degraded, or politically misaligned in ways that reduced deterrent credibility over time.

1 month ago 8 1 1 0

Iran spent decades building a layered deterrent architecture: missiles, the Axis of Resistance, and nuclear threshold status. It was designed to raise the cost of attack beyond what adversaries would accept. For a time, it worked. Then it unraveled.

1 month ago 9 0 1 1
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The Stunning Failure of Iranian Deterrence And why it augurs a more dangerous world.

In our new @foreignaffairs.com piece, @nktpnd.bsky.social and I examine how Iran’s deterrent unraveled and what that failure signals for future nuclear aspirants. www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/stunnin...

1 month ago 62 28 1 3
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The Stunning Failure of Iranian Deterrence And why it augurs a more dangerous world.

I have a new piece out in @foreignaffairs.com, with @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social, on Iran’s deterrence missteps from late-2023 onward that created the conditions for this war. We reflect on the implications for nonproliferation going forward. www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/stunnin...

1 month ago 23 2 0 0
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Iran’s Northern Neighbors Are Facing Fallout From the War, Too The conflict is threatening stability in Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The war in Iran, now in its third week, has had serious regional consequences. That puts Armenia and Azerbaijan “on the front line of regional instability,” writes Zaur Shiriyev.

Read here: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

1 month ago 6 3 0 0
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Why Russia Is Watching Iran Burn The Kremlin is in no hurry to save its closest partner in the Middle East.

Russia and Iran have close ties, culminating in a major treaty last year. But as the war in Iran continues, Russia has largely “stood idly by” -- why?

@alexgabuev.bsky.social, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and Sergey Vakulenko explained for @foreignaffairs.com: www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/why-r...

1 month ago 12 5 0 1
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New post on Iran’s targets during its initial retaliation on Feb. 28. It examines the targeting logic behind three parallel campaigns: striking U.S. C2/ISR infrastructure, imposing costs on the GCC states, and pressuring Israeli civilian centers. www.axesandatoms.com/p/irans-febr...

1 month ago 22 9 2 1
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Why Are China and Russia Not Rushing to Help Iran? Most of Moscow’s military resources are tied up in Ukraine, while Beijing’s foreign policy prioritizes economic ties and avoids direct conflict.

"Most of Moscow’s military resources are tied up in Ukraine, while Beijing’s foreign policy prioritizes economic ties and avoids direct conflict." Alexander Gabuev and Temur Umarov explain why neither Russia nor China has offered any tangible support to Iran.

1 month ago 10 3 0 2
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Exclusive: Russia is giving Iran specific advice on drone tactics, Western intelligence source says Three vessels were hit by projectiles near the Strait of Hormuz, the UK’s maritime agency said. Countries have agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil in an effort to stem gas prices. Fo...

CNN report here edition.cnn.com/world/live-n...

1 month ago 8 2 2 2

Given Russian-Iranian technical cooperation since 2022, reporting that Moscow is sharing UAV employment lessons from Ukraine suggests that at least some wartime operational learning and possibly incremental technical improvements may now be informing Iranian planning.

1 month ago 12 2 1 0

Recent Iranian UAV strike packages appear more complex than earlier campaigns, with greater variation in altitude/routing and clearer evidence of layered raid structures. Some approaches to defended areas appear designed to complicate radar coverage and interceptor sequencing.

1 month ago 5 0 1 0

Whether these operational lessons and upgrades have been systematically transferred back to Tehran is difficult to demonstrate conclusively. But observable changes in Iranian drone employment suggest some degree of adaptation.

1 month ago 5 0 1 0