The last guest for this season of Becoming a Best Ball Bro is the great @connorallennfl.bsky.social! We chat about his favorite stacks, handling player hype, and so much more.
Finale coming your way next week.
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/3eVk...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=wj-I...
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Books have started to adjust props toward the median but if you are up to date on camp reports, coachspeak, role projections, etc there are tons of lines to pick off.
I have already released 7 season-long props, some of which are still available! (All of them are unders)
6. Why do season-long unders do so well?
There are so many extra outs for an under to hit instead of an over. An under can hit due to:
• Injury
• Poor performance
• Benching
• Roster changes impacting workload
• Poor QB play tanking the offense
• Bad OL play +many others
5. So, should you ever bet overs? It's tough.
The ONLY category (out of 29 tracked) to show a multi-year profit on overs is QB Rushing Yards at 58%. This trend was supercharged by the most recent season and on a super small sample.
• 2021: 50%
• 2022: 63%
• 2023: 40%
• 2024: 80%
4. The 3rd highest hit rate over the last 4 years is Receiving Touchdown UNDERS at 62%
• 2021: 58%
• 2022: 64%
• 2023: 64%
• 2024: 60%
3. The 2nd highest hit rate over the last 4 years is RB Rushing Touchdown UNDERS at 63%
• 2021: 72%
• 2022: 62%
• 2023: 59%
• 2024: 61%
2. The single most profitable long-term bet has been Passing Yard UNDERS, hitting at a wild 69% over four seasons!
2021: 78%
2022: 71%
2023: 64%
2024: 67%
1. Blindly betting the under on season-long player props has hit over 60% for four consecutive years!
Under hit rate by year:
• 2021: 63%
• 2022: 60%
• 2023: 60.5%
• 2024: 60.3%
Sportsbooks have already posted HUNDREDS of NFL season-long player props for 2025!
I analyzed 1,053 props from the last 4 seasons and found 6 trends you need to know before betting the season-long prop market:
🔥🔥🔥
Justin Fields signs with the Jets on a two-year, $40M deal with $30M guaranteed.
Fantasy angle: Fields has supported WR1's in the past and has flashed fantasy upside as a runner.
Betting angle: Can't wait to bet the under on the Jets win total asap. Should open at 5.5 or less
This could be really fun. Mitchell brings them some juice that Pacheco couldn't really access off that injury
🚀
Chiefs are signing RB Elijah Mitchell on a deal up to $3.5M per Jordan Schultz.
Potentially big opportunity for Mitchell with both Hunt and Pacheco averaging under 4 yards per carry last season
Appreciate it, Danny!
if you're looking for an X alternative for Free Agency news, here's a good way to instantly get a list, or your timeline, up on NFL content
The Bears have now replaced the entire interior of their OL:
OG Joe Thuney
OG Jonah Jackson
C Drew Dalman
Big changes happening in Chicago
🤝
Likewise Omar
Chris Godwin back to the Bucs!
Currently going as the WR35 and 64th overall in early Underdog drafts...
On the other hand, Montgomery out-carried Gibbs 17-11 last time around against the Packers and recently was involved with leaking some plays/protections on Tik Tok. That may have no impact but I think there is a non-zero chance.
Reasoning:
"With no DJ Reader in the lineup, this Lions Rush defense is going from an elite unit to one of the most injured of the week.
"He’s posted 18, 26, and 19 carries over his last three games and currently ranks 3rd in yards with 987 and 4th in attempts with 221."
Thursday Night Football Play on @bnfantasy.bsky.social !
Play: Josh Jacobs to have 2+ more rushing yards than Jahmyr Gibbs!
💸NEW OFFER: Your first entry is sweat-free up to $500 with code: SF500
Tail: buff.ly/412Pb6A
🦃 3 Thanksgiving player prop bets! 🦃
The first prop bet is on Jahmyr Gibbs with @rynoonan.bsky.social and is FREE!
I also broke down 3 of the factors for why I believe i'm having a better season betting on player props compared to the previous ones.
t.co/HTdmimnv3D
4for4's rest-of-season Thanksgiving/Black Friday Sale is live. You can get a rest-of-season Pro sub for just $4.44, which includes my projections and League Sync. The Betting sub for $17 is also 🤌. (Be sure to read the auto-bill language for next season so you are aware.) 👇
www.4for4.com/plans
Every play tracked here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
We have an insane deal right now for Thanksgiving/Black Friday.
Get everything at 4for4 and all of my plays for just $16.99 for the rest of the season!
Subscribe: 4for4.com/plans
Recap 2/2
✅ Mike Evans o53.5 rec yards
✅ D'Andre Swift U59.5 rush yards
✅ Kendrick Bourne OVER 23.5 receiving yards
✅ Ameer Abdullah under 34.5 rush yards
❌Xavier Legette under 33.5 rec yards
❌Kareem Hunt O17.5 carries
My best season of NFL player props continues
@4for4football.bsky.social!
Week 12: 7-3, +2.92 units
YTD: 83-49 (62.83%), +28.44 units
RECAP (1/2)
✅Jerome Ford U20.5 rush yards
✅ Jameis Winston O208.5 pass yards
❌ Keenan Allen U42.5 rec yards
✅ Demarcus Robinson U27.5 receiving yards
