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The data shows that probation & parole are double-edged swords: They could be important tools for moving people out of harmful correctional facilities, but they're designed to anticipate failure over success, creating a "revolving door" at a high cost.
Graph showing that technical violations are the main reason for incarceration of people on probation and parole
Failure of these systems because of conditions is high: Supervision violations account for more than 25% of all prison admissions.
This is not a system designed for success.
For example, both probation & parole impose an excessive number of conditions that can be nearly impossible to comply with all the time, like curfews or paying hefty fines.
If they're missed, that could be a violation that lands someone in prison.
The reality is that when states use community supervision as a default "alternative" to incarceration, they're actually setting millions of people up for failure.
And that's because parole and probation do not work — instead, they often lead to incarceration.
Graph showing mass punishment rates by state as of 2026
And this is not a partisan issue. Mass punishment in every single state is alarming. Just take a look at the so-called “progressive” state of Minnesota.
It has one of the lowest incarceration rates in the U.S., but has one of the top 10 highest probation rates:
By our count, 1 in 61 people nationwide are under some form of correctional control. In fact, if the number of people on probation & parole alone were its own state, it would be roughly the size of Connecticut.
...So much for the land of the free.
Pie chart showing there are 3 million people on probation, 649,000 on parole, and 2 million in correctional facilities in the U.S.
Mass incarceration doesn't stop at the prison walls.
On any given day, there are at least 5.6 million people under correctional control. And the vast majority of them are on probation or parole:
Graph showing the growth of mass incarceration and mass supervision in the U.S.
🚨NEW REPORT: Most people think of probation and parole as pathways away from the carceral system — but that couldn't be further from the truth.
New data reveal how community supervision has grown in parallel with mass incarceration and widened the net of social control 🧵
Guaranteed income for people in reentry is a smart policy move that helps people succeed, reduces recidivism, and quickly pays for itself.
Community Spring's program should be replicated across the U.S. Learn more about what your state can do 👇
But with the Just Income program, participants received $7,600 over 12 months. And for every 100 people in the study, those payments led to 12 fewer being reincarcerated — that averages out to a net gain for taxpayers of over $13,000 per person in the program!
U.S. map showing how much each U.S. state spends incarcerating people
Finally, it's important to remember that the U.S.'s overreliance on mass incarceration comes with a hefty price tag — and it’s covered by taxpayers.
Each year, Florida spends $41,000 to incarcerate a single person.
usafacts.org/articles/how...
Graph showing that the benefits of guaranteed income for formerly incarcerated people extend to their families and communities
The benefits of the program also extended beyond the single person receiving payments. Recipients were able to pitch in for household expenses, cover food costs, and help others.
This means guaranteed income not only benefits people in reentry, but their larger communities:
Graph showing that guranteed income for formerly incarcerated people increases the likelihood of full-time employment over time
And contrary to popular belief, guaranteed income in Florida did *not* create a disincentive to work. In fact, it helped people find suitable and sustainable work that leads to more stable employment:
Graph showng that guaranteed income for formerly incarcerated people results in lower rates of recidivism
That's where Community Spring's Just Income program comes into play. The Florida-based org gives formerly incarcerated folks $800 per month for a year — with no strings attached.
As a result, participants saw lower recidivism rates and improved probation compliance:
Pie chart showing that 151,000 of Florida's residents are locked up in various kinds of facilities.
But guaranteed income can help offset these struggles. Take a look at what's happening in Florida, for example.
The state has one of the largest carceral systems in the world, and with more than 680,000 people exiting prison or jail each year, there is a lot of need for support.
Graph showing unemployment among formerly incarcerated people compared to the general public.
Notably, these struggles are disproportionately imposed on Black Americans,
who are overrepresented in the country’s correctional facilities.
To make matters worse, Black people have the highest joblessness and unemployment rates among formerly incarcerated folks.
Getting back on your feet after release is not easy. People face employment discrimination, and often have to pay steep fees that come with post-release supervision (like drug tests).
And failure to meet these financial hardships comes with dire consequences: Reincarceration.
Screenshot showing median annual incomes for incarcerated people prior to incarcerated
Each year, about 8 million people leave jail and prison.
For them, the stakes are extremely high. Incarcerated folks are more likely to have experienced poverty & unemployment — issues that only get worse after release.
www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/inco...
🚨NEW: The cost of living is constantly on the rise. For people leaving jail or prison, who face mounting barriers to employment, it can be almost impossible to keep up.
The solution? Guaranteed income.
Data shows it keeps people out of prison — and saves taxpayers thousands 🧵
Graph showing that 113 million adults in the U.S. have an immediate family member who has ever been to prison or jail
Across the U.S., 113 million adults have an immediate family member who has ever been to prison or jail.
Mass incarceration has far-reaching consequences that don't stop at the prison gates.
Graph showing that technical violations are the main reason for incarceration of people on probation and parole
And failure of these systems because of conditions is high: Supervision violations account for more than 25% of all prison admissions.
This is not a system designed for success.
Both probation & parole impose an excessive number of conditions that can be nearly impossible to comply with all the time, like curfews or paying hefty fines.
If they're missed, that could be a violation that lands someone in prison.
The U.S. often treats probation and parole as "alternatives" to incarceration. But in reality, these systems widen the net of correctional control and set millions of people up for failure.
Because parole and probation do not work — instead, they often lead to incarceration.
"Parole is not a get-out-of-jail-free card. While parole does mean I’ve been released from prison, it’s also not exactly freedom. Much of my life feels like an adherence to a strict set of guidelines that dictate everything I can and cannot do."
Pie chart slicing showing that almost 7,000 girls are confined by various legal systems, often for non-serious and even non-criminal offenses
Hundreds of girls in the US are confined by the juvenile justice system for “status offenses,” like running away or truancy.
Confinement for these offenses is particularly troubling because those behaviors tend to be responses to abuse.
More care, less confinement.
Graph showing mass punishment rates by state
1 in 61 people nationwide are under some form of correctional control — and the vast majority of them are on probation or parole.
The data is clear: The "land of the free" is committed to a system of mass punishment.
