it's a bit of a messy draft class but that's why I like the tiered system that Michael Donodeo, @jacobstl.bsky.social, and @seidler.bsky.social used on our BP Draft Big Board. It goes 50 deep and has tons of great insights:
Here are some NCAA reads as MLB heats up. Posted some notes on Patrick Forbes, Chase Shores, and Wehiwa Aloy.
Free to read with a basic BPro subscription:
www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/ar...
Busch Stadium graphic with WARP projections for each position.
visual depth chart for STL IF
visual depth chart for STL OF
visual depth chart for STL SP
really nice breakdown of a St. Louis Cardinals team that is in, frankly, a weird spot, courtesy of @jacobstl.bsky.social.
www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...
My 2025 Cardinals season preview for Baseball Prospectus: www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...
New Shiny App is live. You can select any hitter and see how their wOBAcon would change, had every batted ball been hit in your selected parks:
jacobestl.shinyapps.io/wOBAPlotApp/
really strong article from @jacobstl.bsky.social on the potential impact on the Rays lineup from moving from the Trop to Steinbrenner field, including three players who should benefit:
Tyler O'Neill's xwOBAcon and EV90 by month
Apr: .536 / 106.7
May: .453 / 106.8
Jun: .463 / 106.5
Jul: .445 / 108.5
Aug: .482 / 106.2
Sep: .522 / 107.5
One of the biggest exit-velo freaks in the league
Willy Adames wRC+ with:
Bases empty: 94
Men on: 144
RISP: 187
Giants ranked 23rd in wRC+ with men on and 25th with RISP. This will be huge for them
RHP Ryan Watson (SFG) is a R5 reliever to watch.
FF had great results (29% Whiff%/.278 xwOBA) despite avg movement. Gets a ton of extension (7 ft avg) and is throwing from a low slot (5.5) for a 6'5" pitcher
SW/CB are high-whiff offerings that play off each other nicely.
Working on an xIVB/xHB model that uses arm angle, vertical release angle, and horizontal release angle.
For FF, unexpected IVB is much more crucial to Whiff% than HB. The xwOBAcon plot shows how both are essential for suppressing damage.
Hey Everyone,
I know I’ve been pretty aggressive about promoting our subscriptions and our value proposition of late. But I just talked with our (lovely) ownership, and the fact of the matter is we've seen our subscriber base shrink the last two years.
It's rare that a catcher of this age has this much offensive talent. He's mashed at every level and deserves a ton of playing time in 2025.
Another thing I wanted to mention about his approach is how he added 3.5 mph to his average bat speed with less than 2-strikes, compared to an MLB average of 1.9
He ranked 3rd in wOBAcon and 4th in xwOBAcon on the Cardinals with less than 2K.
The only hitter in baseball with a higher xwOBAcon and Zone-Contact% than Herrera against breaking+offspeed is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Herrera's Z-Swing% against them falls from 85.4% in pitchers counts to 65.8% in hitters counts. Part of his very impressive plate approach.
Herrera was recalled on August 26th after being in MiLB since mid-June.
He posted a 192 wRC+ and .516 wOBAcon in his second stint, and added 2.5 mph to his 90th pct exit velo against breaking and offspeed pitches.
Herrera has gotten limited playing time over the years, but with Contreras' move to 1st, it might be time for him to be the every-day catcher.
Despite a fluctuation in PT, his xwOBA never fell below league average in any 100-PA span last year.
Ivan Herrera just had the 3rd-highest wRC+ among rookie catchers in the last 10 years (min 70 G)
Here's a quick thread on why he's one of the most valuable Cardinals assets 🧵
Jose Barrero, signed by the Cardinals to a MiLB deal, just recently hit the hardest tracked ball of his career at 111.6 mph in the Dominican Winter League.
I made a starter pack of some of my favourite baseball accounts
Check them out!
go.bsky.app/N6pYxQa
Wrote about some Cardinals prospects www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/ar... @baseballprospectus.com
Michael Conforto is a great under-the-radar bat this offseason. Here are his xwOBAcon and 90th% bat speeds by month:
Apr: .370 (78.3)
May: .442 (77.1)
Jun: .386 (77.0)
Jul: .322 (77.9)
Aug: .520 (79.8)
Sep: .499 (80.6)
Had a 137 wRC+ in those final two months.
