No active intervention from the US for Russia? Well that's a relief.

So it seems that it all boils down to a question of Starmer's judgment, or lack of it.

Onneksi meillä on sentään hyvä hallitusohjelma.

Ilmeisesti tehokkaimmat, ja käytännössä melkein ainoat, keinot on rajoittaa uusien siirtokaapeleiden lupia ja säädellä ankarasti uusien datakeskusten rakentamista. Ainakin jälkimmäiseen tarvittaneen uutta lainsäädäntöä.

”Ei voi puhua jääkaudesta” – professori kertoo, miten merivirtojen hidastuminen vaikuttaa Suomeen Golf-virta on osa Pohjois-Atlantin merivirtojen kiertoliikettä eli Amocia, jonka mahdollisesta romahtamisesta on ristiriitaista tutkimustietoa.

Teoriassa mahdollista, mutta ei kovin todennäköistä professori Timo Vihman mukaan.

yle.fi/a/74-20221269

Should be eternal peace day, I think?

No sympathy. Russians only care when the war affects their own life.

Yes, but the Finnish far right is a little bit behind other European far right movements. Also, almost all our politicians still say that we can trust the US and Nato is doing fine and so on. Obviously all based on a big lie, but has kept the American brand a bit less toxic here.

They should put the show out of its misery. Should have happened decades ago.

France Goes Deep A review of French long-range and deep strike development projects

🚀 I published a new Missile Matters post reviewing France's long-range and deep-strike rearmament programs.

France is developing 12 distinct systems — more than any other European state.

Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/french-lon...

Short summary below.

1/5

Must be one of those words journalists like to use in order to avoid repeating the same word all the time.

Enforcing the message that we should never trust the US.

Eihän varsinainen keskustelu ole edes alkanut vielä, joten vähän aikaista sanoa? En usko että koskaan jäämme ihan yksin, ainakin Ruotsilla ja Norjalla on ihan oikea kansallinen intressi jeesata tarvittaessa.

Yeah I get that, my point was mostly that if they have to ration food on board it's most likely because there's an issue with the supply ships or getting to port, so parcels won't be delivered either.

I seriously doubt that Russia wants, in addition to its failed war in Ukraine, a direct conflict with Nato. Obviously they have all kinds of ideas of how to get out of the quagmire they are in, but that doesn't mean they have any good ideas.

German companies are obviously prone to overengineering stuff, but I think the real problems slowing Germany down are on the procurement side of things. If Germany wants to order 200 basic tracked howitzers for quick delivery there are ways to make that happen. They need Zeitenwende 2.0.

The idea that you can somehow handle Trump is obviously flawed. You can only bribe him to do what you want, and he already owes too much to the people who have bribed him earlier, so it's not practical. Aside from all moral and legal issues of course.

Obvious bs story, who would think they can send a parcel to a ship that for some reason has to ration food.

He was also a product of liberation theology, which had some connections to the Soviet Union. And Russia is astonishingly still benefiting from the Soviet anti-colonial image that was created all those years ago.

Ei asia ole ihan noin yksinkertainen. Suomen mahdollinen ydinase olisi todennäköisesti osa laajempaa pohjoiseurooppalaista pelotetta tai ainakin sellaisen yhteistyön tulos. Doktriinia en ole miettinyt valmiiksi, mutta ihan varmasti se ei olisi automaattinen kostoisku ydinaseilla.

Beyond parody.

Apparently the ceasefire is between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by Iran?

And the United States is obviously the biggest loser in all this. Superpower status almost gone already, and probably too late to do anything about it.

"Tänään eduskunnalle antamassaan ulko- ja turvallisuuspoliittisen selonteon päivityksessä Yhdysvaltoja pidetään ”ennakoimattomana” ja sen retoriikkaa ”kovana”."

Hienoa että vihdoinkin uskalletaan sanoa ääneen että Yhdysvaltoihin ei voi luottaa.

Unfortunately I don't think Israel will do anything. I still support their right to defend their country, but it seems that the present regime has gone rogue and is happy to break every law and convention.

En tietenkään tarkoita että aloittaisimme ydinsodan matalalla kynnyksellä, tarkoitus olisi nostaa kynnystä aloittaa tavanomainen sota.

Ihan mahdotonta sanoa mitä olisi odotettavissa. Halusin lähinnä sanoa että Suomen perusstrategia aiheuttaa viholliselle niin suuret tappiot että se rupeaa neuvottelemaan ei välttämättä toimi. Täytyy varautua pitkäänkin sotaan.

Whatever is left in the British oilfields is almost literally a drop in the ocean. And obviously none of Trump's business what happens to it.

Noiden ydinaseiden määrästä ja laadusta olen myös hieman eri mieltä, riittävä määrä taktisia aseita muodostaa strategisen pelotteen.