TACO

Revolut aims for $200bn valuation in stock market listing Bumper IPO would trigger increased stake for founder Nik Storonsky but group has no plans to float shares before 2028

Both in the financial press today:

"Revolut aims for $200bn valuation in stock market listing ... but group has no plans to float shares before 2028" (FT)
www.ft.com/content/dc9d...

"Revolut prepping $100B secondary" (Axios)
www.axios.com/2026/04/21/r...

Marketing ...

Elite law firm Sullivan & Cromwell admits to AI ‘hallucinations’ Firm whose partners bill more than $2,000 per hour apologises to judge for software-driven errors in bankruptcy case

"Sullivan & Cromwell admits to AI ‘hallucinations’"

"Head of S&C’s restructuring practice apologised ... for mistakes that included misquoting the US bankruptcy code & citing cases incorrectly in a court filing"

"S&C has an enterprise licence for ChatGPT"

www.ft.com/content/657d...

Assuming all the numbers are correct and every customer is similar, then in FY25:

Intacct took ~$37m revenues from Quickbooks
And each of the 500 customers was worth ~$75k

$SGE $INTU

Sage $SGE vs. $INTU

"~¼ of our new customer acq. for Intacct comes from Intuit" (FY26Q1)

"Revenue growth for Intacct in the US ... a ~$650m base now, of 23%" (FY25Q4)

"We typically in an avg. year in the US probably acquire ~500 QB graduates & migrate them to Intacct" (FY25Q3)

WARREN: That's not my question. Are you refusing to tell us if you have investments in vehicles set up by Jeffrey Epstein?

KEVIN WARSH: Those assets will be sold if I'm confirmed

Also: www.iea.org/reports/glob...

On a side note, Czech general Jan Žižka was circling the wagons in the Hussite Wars in the 1420s, long before Christopher Columbus was even born
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_wagon

Their definition of "value investing" is on P/B quintiles

If you simply look at S&P 500 Value, it has underperformed benchmark every year in 2021-25 except 2022, and underperformed both L5Y and L10Y

UK value investor newsletter:

"In 9 out of 10 decades, value investing has outperformed"

But their data for 2020s stops at 2022 and, for the other 9 decades, the one value investing didn't outperform was the most recent one

You may as well say:

"In 9 out of 10 decades, the Internet didn't exist"

America's response to the 1918 influenza epidemic Every year, world leaders gather in poppy fields and cemeteries across Europe to commemorate the outbreak of World War 1. They lay wreathes in memory of the 17 million military and civilian victims of...

For anyone else reading, "The Flu Epidemic of 1918":

"25% of the US Army personnel and 40% of US Navy personnel are thought to have contracted flu. About 43 000 died from influenza and pneumonia, compared with 50 280 battle deaths in the war"

www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

Tractor Supply Co. $TSCO down ~8%, new 52-wk low

26Q1 comp. sales +0.5%
Total sales +3.6%
GP +3.6% (GM flat)
EBIT -6.3% (SG&A +6.1%, "deleverage of fixed costs" + "accelerated new store opening")

Reaffirms FY26 guide
Comp. sales +1-3%
Total sales +4-6%
EPS $2.13-2.23 (PY $2.06)

Lindsell Train UK Fund Nov-24 monthly commentary

"Up 35% in November and hit all-time highs ... Sage shares are still meaningfully undervalued"

$SGE shares peaked shortly after, at <5% from Nov-24 month-end level, and are currently ~30% lower

Home Depot courts contractors as US economy weighs on the DIY set Home improvement giant spends billions to attract new business from professionals beyond traditional customer base

"Home Depot $HD courts contractors as US economy weighs on the DIY set" (FT)

CEO: "With housing turnover as low as it is, totally flat with no growth in new construction, our growth has to come from share capture right now"

Estée Lauder Seeks €5 Billion Funding for Puig Deal, Report Says Estée Lauder Cos. has hired JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. to take the lead on structuring a financing package of about €5 billion ($5.9 billion) to fund its potential tie-up with Spanish company Puig Brand...

"Estée Lauder $EL Seeking €5 Billion for Puig Deal, Report Says" (Bloomberg)

Sodexo $SW: Consumables were 22% of revenues in Europe in FY25 (27% across the group)

That Compass $CPG's done so much better is a surprise
(but shares down ~20% since start of 2025)

FY25 EBIT Margin much higher at 7.2% (N America: 8.2%)

CPG revenue mix ~20 ppt more tilted to the US (65%)
Materially higher in Business & Industry (39%) and Sports & Leisure (14%)

UK school meal providers warn against push into ‘the world of lentils’ Government wants healthier options on menu as 26% of children in England are overweight or living with obesity, according to NHS

School meals in Europe are a lousy business

Context: "UK school meal providers warn against push into ‘the world of lentils’" (FT)

Sodexo $SW expects 3.2-3.4% underlying EBIT Margin in FY26 (FY25: 4.7%) (10-Apr, after Iran war started)

Europe margin is below group average (FY25: 4.3%)
Education is a small part of Europe (14% in FY25) and has revenue declines (FY26H1: -1.6%)

Shares down 32% L5Y, 23% L1Y

Cigarette volumes are falling but nicotine volumes are growing (both in the US and globally) with vapes and nicotine pouches

Nicotine is the addictive substance
Burning is the reaction that produces cancer-causing chemicals

Context: FT column "Will social media addiction go the way of cigarettes?"

Pernod Ricard Is Said to Begin IPO Process for India Unit Pernod Ricard SA, the maker of Absolut vodka and Chivas Regal whisky, has begun work on a potential initial public offering of its Indian business, according to people familiar with the matter.

"Pernod Ricard Said to Begin IPO Process for India Unit" (Bloomberg)

India is $RI's fastest-growing region

3.8x Net Debt / EBITDA (Dec-25) with EBITDA falling (EBIT -7.5% organic FY26H1) motivates strategic moves

This is record $BF.B supposedly prefers

Another interpretation of the article's points is the controlling family regards a standalone Brown-Forman $BF.B as unsustainable, but doesn't want to be cashed out at a low point in the cycle

BF CEO Lawson Whiting (57) in role since 2019
Longstanding CFO (56) retired this year

Jack Daniel’s Whiskey Owner Said to Favor Sale to Pernod Ricard The family that owns the maker of Jack Daniel’s whiskey favors a potential sale to the French distiller Pernod Ricard SA over an alternative proposal from its closely held American rival Sazerac Co., ...

Brown-Forman "Favors Deal With Pernod Ricard"

$BF.B "sees Pernod $RI as the better fit because the combined company would be diversified across geographies & types of spirits", per "a person"

80/20 stock/cash discussed
Sazerac reportedly all cash

Jack Daniel’s Whiskey Owner Said to Favor Sale to Pernod Ricard The family that owns the maker of Jack Daniel’s whiskey favors a potential sale to the French distiller Pernod Ricard SA over an alternative proposal from its closely held American rival Sazerac Co., ...

Brown-Forman "Favors Deal With Pernod Ricard"

$BF.B "sees Pernod $RI as the better fit because the combined company would be diversified across geographies & types of spirits", per "a person"

80/20 stock/cash discussed
Sazerac reportedly all cash

Self-identified HF manager:

"I've met and spoken with Trump ... He despises drugs ... There is zero chance he would support legalization"

The exit polls in Bulgaria were off by as much as 7 points

"Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria, a leftist political group, came first with 44.7 per cent of the vote"

www.ft.com/content/0a4f...

CNN put together a montage of Trump saying as far back as March 9 that his war against Iran "is going to be finished pretty quickly," then him saying that same thing over and over for the past six weeks

A 2016 article quoting a 2008 paper (so both preceding AI):

"In non-agricultural employment in the US, the week was 69 hours in 1830 ... By 1930, a full-time work week was 47 hours; each decade, American workers were working 2 hours less every week ... By 1970 the work week was down to 39 hours"

The Y-axes are doing a lot of work in these charts

"Oil Contractors Face Profit Hits From Mideast War Fallout"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

(Share prices haven't changed much since Iran war)

Haliburton $HAL: Middle East was 26% of revenues in 2025, the #2 region behind North America

US was 39% of revenues
No other country was more than 10% of revenue

No single customer was more than 10% of revenues