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Posts by Harold Tobin

Preview
On the Seattle Fault, the Biggest Quakes Aren’t the Most Likely - Eos Smaller quakes from secondary faults—which are not included in national seismic hazard modeling—occur more frequently than previously thought.

A massive rupture on the Seattle fault, which runs right under the Seattle metro area, could threaten millions and cause billions of dollars of damage. But it’s not just the biggest quakes scientists are concerned about. 🧪 eos.org/articles/on-...

1 week ago 17 12 1 0
A map of the Juan de Fuca plate region of the Pacific Ocean, with the coast of BC, WA, and OR on the right. 18 orange dots show the locations of earthquakes on April 12, 2026, all in the spreading ridge vicinity. Black lines show the plate boundaries, including the JdF ridge, the Cascadia subduction zone, and the Blanco Transform Fault.

A map of the Juan de Fuca plate region of the Pacific Ocean, with the coast of BC, WA, and OR on the right. 18 orange dots show the locations of earthquakes on April 12, 2026, all in the spreading ridge vicinity. Black lines show the plate boundaries, including the JdF ridge, the Cascadia subduction zone, and the Blanco Transform Fault.

Since around midnight PDT, there's been quite an active swarm of earthquakes at the Juan de Fuca Ridge, about 250 miles offshore WA. With 18 detected so far, up to M4.2, locations show that these are NOT at the Axial Seamount Volcano. They do not pose a hazard to the PNW onshore. ⚒️

1 week ago 14 4 0 1

Excellent article today in the NYTimes about the need for tsunami evacuation structures in the PNW.

1 week ago 9 3 0 0

Oh, sorry to hear that. George Plafker was a great, great geologist. Figured out subduction megathrusts from good field observations, when the elite of geophysics had it wrong.

2 weeks ago 9 0 0 0

Finally a convincing explanation for the existence of blueschist and eclogite belts. ⚒️

1 month ago 45 8 0 0

Magnitude 6+ events are pretty common in this region however, and I don’t know of any reason to think this one is different from others in the past decade. The statistical increase in likelihood remains slight.

1 month ago 5 2 0 0
Satellite image based map of central to northern Chile and Peru, with epicenter shown just offshore at 28.6 S latitude. Taken from USGS event page linked in the post.

Satellite image based map of central to northern Chile and Peru, with epicenter shown just offshore at 28.6 S latitude. Taken from USGS event page linked in the post.

Map of Chile with rupture areas and dates of numerous large and great subduction earthquakes marked as red ovals. Quakes are labeled with dates and magnitudes. Source is Matt Pritchard (Cornell) via Jay Payton’s earthjay website.

Map of Chile with rupture areas and dates of numerous large and great subduction earthquakes marked as red ovals. Quakes are labeled with dates and magnitudes. Source is Matt Pritchard (Cornell) via Jay Payton’s earthjay website.

Magnitude 6.3 thrust earthquake in the Atacama area of central Chile this morning. This is in the area of a 1922 M8.4. Most subduction quakes are not foreshocks, but chances of a larger event in the short term are now a bit higher, statistically speaking. 👀

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earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...

1 month ago 20 7 1 0
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I visited the location in the photo a few months later in August, 2011. It was a somber scene of bare, clean foundations, junked cars strewn about, and weedy former rice fields.

1 month ago 14 1 0 0
March 11, 2011 tsunami washing ashore on the Sendai coastal plain, sweeping into a coastal village. I visited this spot a few months later in August, 2011.

March 11, 2011 tsunami washing ashore on the Sendai coastal plain, sweeping into a coastal village. I visited this spot a few months later in August, 2011.

15 years ago right about this time of day, the Tohoku-oki earthquake was unleashed, with as much as 100 meters of fault slip documented at the Japan Trench. The resulting tsunami rocked Japan and the world, claiming ~18,000 lives. It was one of only 5 M9 quakes ever recorded. ⚒️

1 month ago 70 27 4 2

Milne was born in 1850 so this 1857 date must be incorrect. His seismograph was invented in the 1880s.

1 month ago 2 0 0 0
Cover of the March-April 2026 issue of the Geological Society of America  Bulletin, including a full-cover photograph of a wide-view scene of bare rock and snow, with a geologist at work highlighted by low-angle sun. Photo is from summer of 2024 field work at the Lakes of the Gods, Olympic National Park.

Cover of the March-April 2026 issue of the Geological Society of America Bulletin, including a full-cover photograph of a wide-view scene of bare rock and snow, with a geologist at work highlighted by low-angle sun. Photo is from summer of 2024 field work at the Lakes of the Gods, Olympic National Park.

Ok, journals don't really appear as bound paper magazines anymore, but it's still pretty cool to get the cover image! Anna Ledeczi's paper on our newly identified paleo-megathrust in the heart of Olympic National Park is now formally out. Read it here: ⚒️ pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulle...

1 month ago 27 4 2 0
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Before the next earthquake hits WA, we need to fix our bricks | Op-Ed An earthquake like the 2001 Nisqually quake will strike again, and it could be more damaging. What is certain is that we can make structures safer.

Did you know that the Feb. 28, 2001 Nisqually earthquake was the costliest quake in the past 30 years of US history? On its 25th anniversary, the Puget Sound region isn't prepared for the inevitable next one. Here's my take for the @seattletimes-rss.bsky.social www.seattletimes.com/opinion/befo...

1 month ago 9 1 1 1
Scan of the front page of The Daily from March 1st, 2001, showing a photo of PNSN seismologists under a headline reading 'Seattle shakes, seismologists roll into action.'

Scan of the front page of The Daily from March 1st, 2001, showing a photo of PNSN seismologists under a headline reading 'Seattle shakes, seismologists roll into action.'

25 years ago, PNSN seismologists rolled into action to respond to the M6.8 Nisqually earthquake. Join us on Feb 24, 6:30-8 PM for a discussion and Q&A with earthquake experts on what we’ve learned since—and what we need to do to get ready for the next one: www.eventbrite.com/e/25-years-s...

2 months ago 19 7 2 2
A banner reads "Seahawks Win!!!" above a seismogram showing the shaking caused by fans during the NFC Championship game between the Seattle Seahawks and the LA Rams at Lumen Field.

A banner reads "Seahawks Win!!!" above a seismogram showing the shaking caused by fans during the NFC Championship game between the Seattle Seahawks and the LA Rams at Lumen Field.

SEAHAWKS ARE GOING TO SUPER BOWL LX!!!! Seattle Seahawks beat the LA Rams, 31 - 27!

Hopefully you got to follow along and catch each incredible play of this nail-biting game in real time, but if not then find the whole-game archive at: pnsn.org/data-researc...

2 months ago 127 36 2 9
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We're ready for you, 12s! The PNSN's field staff revisited Lumen Field this week to ensure our stations were functioning correctly so we can monitor all of the fan generated energy from today's Seahawks game vs the Rams. Make sure to follow our live seismogram during the game at seahawks.pnsn.org!

2 months ago 46 15 0 3
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Video

Rashid Shaheed got things started right away with an opening kickoff return touchdown, the 12s rocked the house, and the Seahawks never looked back!

SEAHAWKS WIN 41-6 and move onto the NFC Championship Game!

@seahawks @nfl

3 months ago 160 38 5 6
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2026 Seahawks - Seahawks-49ers

Follow along with ground motions at Lumen Field as the Pacific NW Seismic Network @pnsn1.bsky.social livestreams our seismometers in and next to Lumen Field! Seahawks up 17-6 late in 2nd qtr. Stream: seahawks.pnsn.org

3 months ago 7 0 0 1
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TOUCHDOWN SEAHAWKS! Rashid Shaheed returns the opening kickoff for a touchdown! Great start, 12s!

@seahawks @nfl @nflonfox

3 months ago 120 42 1 5
Screenshot of NHK News TV at 01:22 JST, 8:22 PST. Table on screen shows actual observed tsunami inundation up to 70 cm in coastal ports.

Screenshot of NHK News TV at 01:22 JST, 8:22 PST. Table on screen shows actual observed tsunami inundation up to 70 cm in coastal ports.

It looks like northern Japan coastal ports have seen tsunami waves arriving already, but so far just 30-70 cm high. Later-arriving peaks could be higher, but that is good news that the ultimate size will be moderate. I hope so! Damage reports sketchy so far, but also some reason for optimism.

4 months ago 26 5 0 1

Oh no! I’m very happy to hear you’ve had a positive outcome. Best wishes for a speedy recovery, John!

4 months ago 6 0 1 0

Weird juxtaposition…! And must be very old interview footage because I haven’t talked to Weather Channel recently as far as I can remember.

4 months ago 3 0 0 0
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Mount Rainier is not ready to erupt: Earthquake experts debunk report of increased seismic activity Scientists at the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network might blow their stacks over having to respond to a rumor about increased tremor activity at the Washington state volcano.

Here’s the article: www.geekwire.com/2025/mount-r...

5 months ago 5 2 0 0
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I love this. @pnsn1.bsky.social

5 months ago 19 2 1 1

Here’s a deep cut: Harold and Maude

5 months ago 1 0 0 0
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Some false reports are circulating that Mt. Rainier is suddenly showing seismic tremor activity — this is not true. The signal being referenced is actually radio interference, most likely due to rime ice buildup on the antenna of one of our seismic stations.

5 months ago 136 35 4 5
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Ugh, sorry about that.

5 months ago 1 0 0 0
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This lab is key for tracking deadly waves. Its sensors are about to go offline. After NOAA cut funding to the lab that’s been monitoring seismic activity for more than 25 years, nine stations tracking tsunami-causing earthquakes for the agency will go offline by the end of the mo...

NOAA cut funding for critical parts of the tsunami and earthquake detection system in Alaska, primarily in the Aleutians. I spoke to Wash Post about negative impacts. But, hey, what are the chances of a deadly tsunami being triggered in Alaska? (Gift article, not behind paywall) ⚒️ wapo.st/4qKvavQ

5 months ago 86 41 5 4

This visualization of Japan’s M6.8 yesterday is phenomenal. Offshore S-net detected it and issued earthquake alert before any land station detection. Numbered circles show JMA intensity (not same as MMI). Offshore is where we need to be in Cascadia as well.

5 months ago 26 7 0 0

Today's Japan M6.8 is in an interesting spot: the zone of "missing" slip just north of the very large shallow rupture in the 2011 M9.

5 months ago 14 3 0 0
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U.S. tsunami warning system, reeling from funding and staffing cuts, is dealt another blow Seismic monitoring stations in Alaska are closing after a denied federal grant, risking delayed tsunami warnings for people living on the West Coast.

Quoted supporting our counterparts and friends at the Alaska Earthquake Center. The cost of the U.S. tsunami warning and mitigation effort is really a pittance. None of it has ever been adequately funded in any administration, and now things are worse. ⚒️ www.nbcnews.com/science/tsun...

5 months ago 35 21 1 2