Using data from 1984-2022, they find strong short-term sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks, while long-term spending is shaped by economic fundamentals and regional dynamics. They emphasize fiscal pressures and call for resilient budgeting, sustainable financing, and stronger regional cooperation.

Defense Spending Under Pressure: An ARDL Study of Indonesia’s Economic and Strategic Realities This study examines the economic and geopolitical determinants of Indonesia’s defense expenditure from 1984 to 2022 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to capture both short-term and long-term dynamics. Recognizing the contextual relevance of Indonesia’s Total People’s Defense and Security System (SISHANKAMRATA), the analysis relies on conventional military expenditure data (% of GDP) due to the absence of consolidated multi-ministerial records. The results show that in the short run, defense spending is highly sensitive to macroeconomic shocks: inflation, exchange rate volatility, and foreign direct investment exert negative effects, while debt, trade openness, and regional military expenditure strengthen budgetary allocations. In the long run, macroeconomic fundamentals (debt, growth, inflation, and foreign investment) together with neighboring countries’ military spending drive defense expenditure, whereas regional average spending has a negative effect and U.S. military expenditure does not show a structural impact. These findings underscore the dual pressures of fiscal fragility and regional security competition in shaping Indonesia’s defense budget. Policy implications highlight the importance of inflation-adjusted and exchange rate–resilient budgeting, sustainable financing mechanisms such as defense bonds or a Defense Sovereign Wealth Fund (D-SWF), and deeper ASEAN defense cooperation to balance security needs with fiscal discipline. This study contributes a macro-level perspective on defense economics under conditions of institutional fragmentation, offering a framework for future comparative and panel-based research across decentralized security systems.

What drives Indonesia’s defense spending? How do economic and regional factors shape it?
In issue 1/2026, Muchamad Bachtiar, Bambang Irwanto, Irdam Ahmad, Zainal Abidin Sahabuddin, and Trismadi Trismadi analyze Indonesia’s defense spending using an ARDL model.

Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...

Based on a survey experiment with US citizens, the findings remain mixed. The study finds no decisive evidence that co-partisan messaging drives support for limiting civil liberties, suggesting polarisation does not consistently shift attitudes under external threat.

Liberties and Partisanship under Straining US-China Relations How does support for civil liberties prevail in times of external threat? Simultaneously, how does internal polarisation affect how tightly citizens hold to these liberties? We argue citizens may follow partisanship in evaluating foreign threats, supporting erosion of liberties if co-partisans advocate it in favour of national security. We conduct a survey experiment on a representative sample of 3281 US citizens, treating them with vignettes of potential conflict with China attributed to randomly varying partisanship. We interact such treatments with respondents’ own partisanship, then measure support for various civil liberties. Our findings yield mixed results and we are unable to decisively demonstrate that co-partisans are better at encouraging the surrender of civil liberties. This is congruent with other recent research that also shows partisan polarisation may neither lighten nor worsen in times of external threat.

How resilient are civil liberties in times of external threat, and how does political polarisation shape them?
In his contribution to SPP's Issue 1/2026, Afiq bin Oslan shows: Partisan cues matter, but do not clearly increase the willingness to restrict liberties.

Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...

📢 Introducing you to our issue 1/2026 in the coming days and weeks. You are welcome to delve into articles from around the globe 🌍

To start off, we share this issue's Editors' Note by Editor in Chief Uwe Wagschal and Managing Editors @judithreinbold.bsky.social & @ronaldschleehauf.bsky.social.

The researchers of C.K. Tedam University of Technology & Applied Sciences in Ghana identify males, individuals with diabetes, and those with no formal education as facing a significantly shorter time to disease onset, highlighting the critical need for targeted health interventions in the region.

Which demographic groups are most at risk for rapid Tuberculosis onset? In issue 3/2025, Ernest Zamanah and Suleman Nasiru employ a Bayesian framework to analyze Tuberculosis cases in the Bolgatanga Municipality, Ghana.

Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...

They utilize an FMOLS model for data about a region in which public debt approaches 60% of NSDP. On the basis of their results they highlight an urgent need for policies that better channel the remittance funds into productive investments to reduce reliance on market borrowings.

The Impact of International Remittances on Public Debt Sustainability in Kerala: Evidence from the FMOLS Approach Remittances from Kerala’s migrant workers and professionals constitute a vital financial inflow, surpassing their relative significance in most other Indian states. With public debt nearing 60 % of NS...

Can international remittances safeguard public debt sustainability? In issue 3/2025, Anjana Sabu and Vineeth Mohandas analyze the financial landscape of Kerala, India and find deteriorating debt sustainability despite substantial remittance inflows.

Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...

In their analysis they examine data from 1991 to 2022. On this basis they warn that without people-oriented economic investments, even currently stable democracies remain susceptible to political reversal.

Determinants of Political Instability in ECOWAS (1991–2022) This study examined GDP per Capita, military expenditure, trade openness capital formation, inflation and unemployment as determinants of political instability in ECOWAS from 1991 to 2022. Four countr...

What are key drivers of political instability in West Africa? In issue 3/2025, Richard Gbemudia and Stanley Akachukwu highlight GDP per capita, military expenditure, and unemployment as decisive factors to explain why only some ECOWAS nations experienced coups.

Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...

From economy and healthcare to tradition and climate: emotional responses are area-specific and age acts as a key predictor. The article is part of Special Issue "Emotional dynamics of politics and policymaking" by Guest Editors Georg Wenzelburger and Beatriz Carbone of @politicsunisaar.bsky.social.

Emotional Reactions to Protective Policies on the Political Spectrum The need for safety is one of the basic human needs. States implement different protective policies to fulfil the task of granting safety to their citizens. Aim of the present study conducted online o...

How do emotional reactions to protective policies vary across the political spectrum? In issue 3/2025, Marta Penczek-Zapała and @kasiahamer.bsky.social of @polskaakademianauk.bsky.social analyze the emotions evoked by protective policies in Poland.

Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...

He proposes an amended concept (based on the European Social Survey) that adds an emotional layer to the framework of political responsiveness. This article is part of the Special Issue on "Emotional dynamics of politics and policymaking" by our Guest Editors Georg Wenzelburger and Beatriz Carbone.

Bringing Emotions into the Study of Responsiveness: The Case of Protective Policies Research on representation and responsiveness is based on the idea that voters have concerns about certain policy problems and that representatives respond to these concerns with concrete policy outpu...

How do emotions influence political responsiveness? In his contribution to our issue 3/2025, Georg Wenzelburger of @politicsunisaar.bsky.social argues that by focusing on preference-policy linkages, previous research has often underestimated the role of emotions.

Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...

We welcome contributions on:

🔹 Public Revenue
🔹 Public Expenditure
🔹 Public Debt and Fiscal Sustainability
🔹 Fiscal Consolidation and Political Conflict
🔹 Innovations in the Analysis of Public Finance

📢 Call for Papers – Special Issue on The Politics of Public Finance
Guest Editor: Bernhard Kittel

📅 Submission deadline: October 31st, 2026
📩 Submit your manuscript here: mc.manuscriptcentral.com/dgspp
📧 Questions? Contact us at: spp@politik.uni-freiburg.de

We welcome contributions on:
🔹 Climate & Energy Policy
🔹 Digital & AI Policy
🔹 Economic Policy & Infrastructure Development
🔹 Demographics
🔹 Media & Internet policy
🔹 Lifestyle governance
🔹 (Geo-)political Influence and Military Capabilities

📢 Call for Papers – Special Issue on China: Politics and Policy
Guest Editors: @ettensperger.bsky.social & Lars Konheiser

📅 Submission deadline: January 16, 2026
📩 Submit your manuscript here: mc.manuscriptcentral.com/dgspp
📧 Questions? Contact us at: spp@politik.uni-freiburg.de

A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis of Determinants Influencing Military Expenditure: New Methodological Insights and Implications for Defence Budget Allocation The aim of this article is to conduct a meta-analysis of existing research on the determinants of military expenditure. Using data from an initial screening of 179 studies, 15 studies were selected fo...

Their approach offers new methodological insights and supports a more evidence-based foundation for defense budget allocation.

Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...

In issue 1/2025, Muchamad Bachtiar, Irdam Ahmad, Zainal Abidin Sahabuddin, and Trismadi Trismadi conduct a meta-analysis of military expenditure determinants across 15 studies. They find war, ongoing spending, and external threats to be key drivers - while national conditions correlate negatively.

Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Violent Conflict and Fatality in Nigeria: A Point Process Modeling with SPDE Approach For many decades, Nigeria has been plagued by a consistently high rate of violent events, resulting in countless fatalities and the displacement of citizens. This study aimed to model the spatio-tempo...

Their findings reveal a concentration of violence in the northeast and a 42% chance of at least one fatality per violent event - underlining the urgency for targeted interventions and evidence-based policy.

Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...

In issue 1/2025, Osafu Augustine Egbon and Ezra Gayawan present a spatio-temporal model of violent conflict and fatalities in Nigeria. Using a Cox point process and SPDE approach, they analyze georeferenced conflict data to identify regional patterns and high-risk areas.

Pandemic Intensity Estimation using Dynamic Factor Modeling Individual and policy reactions to the coronavirus pandemic had disparate impacts on viral transmission and were heterogeneous in their influence on economic activity and personal outcomes (Kerpen, Ph...

To enable officials and governments to comprehensively measure disease intensity, they develop their model from various US-American economic and pandemic data series.

Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-2024-0042

In our issue 1/2025, Aaron Cooke and John Vivian develop a restricted data-rich dynamic factor model to evaluate vaccination efficacy during the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. Their model can be used for other populations, as they provide an open-source Python package.

A State-Level Policy Change That Would Revitalize the Electoral College The academic literature is rife with analyses of the US Electoral College’s flaws, but proposals to improve the system often rely upon old ideas. For example, the idea of replacing the Electoral Colle...

In detail, he suggests allocating a state’s electoral votes to each county’s plurality winner, proportional to voter turnout in that county.
Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-2024-0058

In issue 1/2025, John O’Reilly proposes the County-Elector Plan to revitalize the Electoral College. Implementable by states, it would avoid a constitutional change and future gerrymandering. Thereby, electoral competition would be shifted from a few battleground states to several hundred counties.

📅 Submission deadline: October 31, 2025
📧 Questions? Contact us at spp@politik.uni-freiburg.de

📢 Call for Papers – Special Issue on Elections

We welcome contributions on:
🔹 Electoral outcomes & voting behavior
🔹 Campaigns & debates
🔹 Electoral systems & reforms
🔹 Comparative perspectives
🔹 Innovations in electoral analysis

📩 Submit your manuscript here: lnkd.in/e23ee9ik

💡 As we step into 2025, we are also excited to share that SPP is transitioning to Gold Open Access
@degruyterbrill.bsky.social, ensuring that all articles are freely available under a Creative Commons license! We’d like to thank our subscribers who made this transformation possible.