Chart shows real pay growth ex bonuses approaching zero in three months to Feb
Couple of bits caught the eye.
Real earnings growth rapidly approaching zero, even ahead of Iran war effects.
If you use CPIH like ONS does, real ex-bonus earnings growth actually turned negative on single-month basis in Feb.
UK labour market data a bit of a mixed bag. I found it hard to read.
• surprise drop in unemployment rate looks a bit of a red-herring in terms of gauging labour market tightness - driven by student numbers
• vacancies at almost 5-year low
• avg weekly earnings growth cooled by less than expected
Strictly speaking, employment did rise a little bit - although inactivity is the story here with regards to the unemployment rate.
Among 16-64yos, students accounted for over three-quarters of the increase in inactivity by reason.
ONS says the surprise fall in the unemployment rate reflects rising inactivity - particularly people becoming students - rather than rising employment.
V interesting. As I keep saying, economic statistics really matter (& need funding). A state that doesn’t know what’s what (about itself and its oppos) is in trouble.
I really hope this means he will be bellowing at the top of his voice like an absolute nutter.
That's great! Good luck
Imagine an AI bust might be quite disinflationary too
ICYMI
Bank of England chief economist criticises colleagues' 'wait and see' messaging www.reuters.com/business/ban...
UK manufacturers divided on capacity to meet sovereign push, survey shows
www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
Opening text of a thread by Palantir from X Because we get asked a lot. The Technological Republic, in brief. 1. Silicon Valley owes a moral debt to the country that made its rise possible. The engineering elite of Silicon Valley has an affirmative obligation to participate in the defense of the nation. 2. We must rebel against the tyranny of the apps. Is the iPhone our greatest creative if not crowning achievement as a civilization? The object has changed our lives, but it may also now be limiting and constraining our sense of the possible. 3. Free email is not enough. The decadence of a culture or civilization, and indeed its ruling class, will be forgiven only if that culture is capable of delivering economic growth and security for the public. 4. The limits of soft power, of soaring rhetoric alone, have been exposed. The ability of free and democratic societies to prevail requires something more than moral appeal. It requires hard power, and hard power in this century will be built on software.
Palantir put out a 22-point summary of their CEO's book The Technological Republic. It's pitched as a defence of the West, but if you read it through the VDA framework, verification, deliberation, accountability, what it's actually doing looks rather different.
twitter-thread.com/t/2045574398...
BBC journalist and all round good egg Sean Farrington is running the London Marathon for Down's Syndrome Manchester, a cause very close to his heart.
Any donation would make a difference, no matter how small!
www.justgiving.com/page/seanfar...
I found "our sunshine" here jarring somehow.
And profitability is an important driver of adoption.
Also see lots of comments on solar farms vs panels on buildings etc.
Surely we need both. Solar farms for the sheer GWs and economies of scale, smaller systems for local efficiency/resilience
Yes in my case there was lots of incredulous "Really?!... I had no idea!"
I think I mentioned the Peak District and it all became clear, to much laughter.
I just remember thinking, 'wow, that show isn't at all what I thought it was'
One of my cringier moments was talking to someone at a party - a long time ago - about favourite TV shows.
He mentioned 'Twin Peaks', which I hadn't seen.
I thought he was talking about 'Peak Practice'.
I remember my friend's dad thought 'See No Evil, Hear No Evil' was called 'Blind Justice'
Magnificent.
• Pill says BoE's top focus should be inflation over other trade-offs (Bailey had stressed need to protect demand, jobs)
• "I'm not sure waiting is necessarily the appropriate response to the sort of inflationary dynamics which have the potential, at least, to have some self sustaining momentum."
BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill is critical of his colleagues' "wait and see" messaging on interest rates 🥊
At Barclays roundtable, Pill says:
• "wait-and-see" could be mistaken for looking neutral over inflation threat
• message should be that hold is right setting for economy, not just waiting
“U.S. officials have informed some European counterparts that some previously contracted weapons deliveries are likely to be delayed as the Iran war continues to draw on weapons stocks, five sources familiar with the matter said.”
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
We import two-thirds of our cheese and that is a DISGRACE
One thing I do think is really under-represented is the role of PR people and press officers, in being the gatekeepers to powerful people and interests.
I'd say most journalists spend way more time dealing with them, than the people we really want access to!
I did not know Vance followed this account and following that account is very much a statement.
The manifesto includes a call on the UK government not to block this but I suppose the more interesting question is what happens if they say “sure, give it a go if you want, see how it goes”.
A pifflingly minor consequence of the latest GDP data is that the wee factoid the government liked to wheel out - that the UK was the fastest growing G7 economy during the first half of last year - is no longer true.
That honour, such as it is, is now Japan's, followed by USA, and UK.
