Ah yes, the last chance to take an offer that will reappear in only slightly different form tomorrow

In my view fair summary of where the last two days leave us.

And how even to make judgements in the absence of a clear political approach to government.

Wonder whether we need to be doing more Starmer / May comparisons - legal / judicial background, not very good at politics or people, lacking overall vision etc

Not finding any of the posts suggesting Robbins evidence to be devastating to be particularly convincing. Problems are rather more high level than process.

Very senior well paid individual was under severe pressure. Sorry, but was the job supposed to be easy? (whingeing seen frequently across business and government to be fair) bsky.app/profile/pipp...

Thornberry: "This [the nomination of Mandelson] is a wholly exceptional circumstance, surely?"

"No," Robbins replies.

And that failure of judgement is why Robbins is out of a job. You cannot treat a prime ministerial nomination to a diplomatic post the same as a routine FCDO appointment.

More pertinent I think to ask who appointed Robbins? And why this is yet another failure?

The bigger issue, the sense that Starmer wants people with magical solutions who will inevitably fail because they don't exist.

Given it was hammered in Parliament, no.

Not that it was ever going to be easy to work with the Number 10 of May or Starmer. But I always have the sense of someone who doesn't quite have the sure touch needed in these very high pressure situations as compared to some of the very best senior officials I've met.

Among the Brexit disagreements that will be never be resolved is whether Olly Robbins was a courageous negotiator undermined by politicians or woefully out of his depth in failing to understand how negotiations or the EU work.

At any rate there were already serious question marks.

Donald Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ held talks with DP World over Gaza reconstruction Proposal examined having Emirati company manage supply chains and logistics as part of US plan for devastated enclave

"DP World, which is controlled by the government of Dubai, has expanded rapidly and handles some 10 per cent of global trade daily..." - we really need to talk about the interaction of government and major companies... www.ft.com/content/873b...

Yes. And no... continues.

Seriously, a national government can claim growth from a multinational investment but if that also stops competitors then the long term picture is worse.

Probably though at least in Brussels there has been some sign of urgency recently. Not in London.

This though is the missing piece of too many discussions - global corporates provide resilience against government actions to restrict markets but create their own threats as we also see particularly in the tech space, as well as probably reducing overall growth. Untangle that...

Palantir manifesto described as ‘ramblings of a supervillain’ amid UK contract fears Alarm caused by posts of Alex Karp, tech firm’s CEO, championing US military dominance and of AI weapons

I haven't commented on Palantir specifically but their actions are clearly in line with the rise of corporate giants as significant actors in the world order which is routinely under-discussed by pieces that only focus on what national governments do. www.theguardian.com/technology/2...

Define "substantial" and outline the timescales you are working with...

Well democracy is part of the discussion given that national security is a clear Member State competence

Timeline cleanse: I just got on a bus. An elderly woman was trying to pay but her card didn’t work. She was standing flustered by the driver. A boy, maybe 12 or 13 years old, who was queuing to get on said to the bus driver, “sir can I pay for her?” and then went ahead and paid for her

You're a long way from what is a lively debate in Brussels

No, not taking, Draghi's vision never looked convincing to me

Resolution has applied my model to data up to 2025. As the chart shows, we can be less confident as time goes on. But firm-level evidence from Bloom et al shows a 6% loss. I think it's time to retire the OBR's 4%, which was a simple average of pre-Brexit forecasts.

Methodological note: When it comes to Brussels opinion I synthesise what I hear because it is a compromise making machine where nobody quite gets everything they want, and everyone is pushing something. This negotiators approach generally works well but needs constant refreshing.

Related to the UK's EU debate and in particular the national delusion that is exceptionalism like we're going to have the world's best regulations when we don't understand the world.

Of course, distinguished writers, just the bits that were missing I was focusing upon

Facile question, that is being discussed every day right now in Brussels between national governments, MEPs, everyone else.

Yes I think you're right and look forward to reading your considered thoughts...

So PS we're nowhere near talking about conditions for UK membership of the EU, the next phase is going to be about the joint why, plus there really still are too many people still believing there are fantastic regulatory and trade dividends so far mysteriously absent.

And yet... the optimistic take on UK-EU relations is that only 6 months ago the importance of freedom of movement wasn't recognised in London. Reset talks progress. This has been about repair.

But the next stage must be about renewal, and that is where the conversation must now turn.

On the EU side the ambitious European Parliament President Roberta Metsola is the main figure trying to set out a new vision, and there are various others. But on the UK side, there is still a lack of senior Labour figures prepared to go to Brussels. This is a huge vacancy.

Things move on, the inaccuracy now to be corrected is that the EU has 10 things more important than the UK, because most of them have a UK angle - and that is where the relationship conversation is turning. In essence, prosperity and security. But can a way through be found?