FERC orders American Efficient to pay $1.1B for ‘brazen fraud’ “American Efficient’s years-long fraud profoundly disrupted the organized capacity markets and ultimately increased costs for ordinary Americans,” FERC Chairman Laura Swett said.

Example of fraud in paying for demand reduction not as colorful as famous Camden Yards case, but a lot more money. Same bottom line: demand reduction is best rewarded as reduced demand not "increased supply".
www.utilitydive.com/news/ferc-am...
(Also see energyathaas.wordpress.com/2014/05/12/m...)

Iran War Live Updates: Strait of Hormuz Is ‘Completely Open’ After Lebanon Deal, Iran and U.S. Say

Iran's foreign minister said that the Strait of Hormuz is open, and WTI crude dropped $10/barrel to $85. Before the war it was $65.
www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04...

Useful explainer of gasoline formulations sold in the US. I do wish they had set a bit more about how much more California blend gasoline costs to make. Most of the numbers I hear are in the 5-15 cent range, a small fraction of the CA price premium.
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

LIV Golf Facing Imminent Closure as Saudi Backers Weigh Pulling Funding Saudi Arabia’s sovereign-wealth fund is on the verge of pulling funding for the upstart league that lured star golfers away from the PGA Tour and divided the sport.

Not a done deal, but I would love to see LIV golf collapse. This Saudi sportswashing deal started shortly after they murdered Jamal Khashoggi. Hope the concience-less golfers who joined get to live out their days in Saudi Arabia.
www.wsj.com/sports/golf/...

Spirit Airlines Could Liquidate As Early as this Week The rising cost of jet fuel could spell the end of Spirit.

Spirit may liquidate in weeks and JetBlue may file for bankruptcy in months. Stratospheric jet fuel prices are tough on the airline industry, but unlike airlines outside the US, they don't hedge fuel prices.
www.travelmarketreport.com/air/articles...
viewfromthewing.com/jetblue-foun...

Surprisingly strong forecast for hydropower in the West this summer from EIA, despite the warm winter, low snow, and early heatwave.
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

The Climate Policy Paradox: Why Voters Reject the Tools that Economists Advocate Most Economists overwhelmingly favor carbon taxes and cap-and-trade over environmental regulatory standards, but voters disagree. Our new research shows that simple economic misunderstandings help expla…

In this week's EI blog, Joe Shapiro discusses his fascinating new working paper looking at how non-economists view alternative environmental policies options, and why they hate the options that economists most favor.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/04/13/t...

Diesel Is Having a Moment Almost-record-high diesel prices may make electric heavy duty trucks an even better deal! As you are probably not currently on a European vacation and reading this, or a truck driver refilling your…

Catching up on the Energy Institute blog. Last week, Max had a classic Auffhammerish post on the private versus social cost of diesel big rigs versus electric. Combines two of Max's favorite topics: big trucks and greenhouse gases, and a dollop of humor.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/04/06/d...

The media have focused on disproportionate oil impact in parts of the world that "get their oil through the Strait of Hormuz". Thank you FT for highlighting efficient global arbitrage in crude. There are logistical frictions, and also people whose job is to overcome them.
www.ft.com/content/c749...

An Open Letter to President Trump on Iran Strategy From a Group of Concerned Economists Dear President Trump, While we share the Administration's concerns about the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) nuclear program and destabilizing activities, strikes on Iranian civilian infrast...

I have just signed this. I hope you will consider doing so as well.

docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

The war with Iran has been the primary cause of California's jump in gasoline prices, but the Mystery Gasoline Surcharge has also played a role. It was up by 20 cents, $0.57 in February to $0.77 in March.

In what world is it okay for the Defense Secretary to make multi-million dollar investments in defense companies:
a) Ever;
b) In the run-up to starting a war in the Middle East

FT has the scoop: www.ft.com/content/744e...

In a functional democracy, he would offer his resignation tonight.

DOE Second Guesses Coal Plant Owners The US Department of Energy is pursuing a costly policy to preserve coal capacity. Coal is the most rapidly declining source of electricity in the United States. The black rock generated half of US…

In today's EI blog, Andy Campbell details all of the ways that the trump administration's attempts to bolster the coal generation industry are expensive and disturbing policy.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/03/30/d...

Understand Oil Trade and Transportation

Stanford has put out a great explainer website about oil markets. Every journalist covering the issue (and anyone else interested in oil markets) should read this.
understand-energy.stanford.edu/news/underst...

This figure shows the mystery gasoline surcharge by month from January 2000 2 February 2026. It bounces around zero until February 2015 and then varies as high as $1.40, never close to zero.

The mystery gasoline surcharge – the difference between CA and rest of US retail price after controlling for taxes, enviro fees and higher cost of CA gas – was about $0.57 in Feb, before attack on Iran. Based on AAA info, today it's just over $1. Looks like CA price incr maybe not just crude oil.

California Now Allows More Ethanol in Gasoline — Is This Going to Save Drivers Money? Drivers will be disappointed. First, it is likely that very little E15 will be sold in the state. Second, if E15 were widely adopted, it would not cause large drops in gas prices. Californians pay …

So, trump EPA is allowing E15 for the summer. Worth rereading Aaron Smith's insights on why this is unlikely to have a noticable effect on gas prices. If someone claims a big impact, check if they are being paid by Renewable Fuels Assn.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/12/08/c...

The Energy Economics of War Gasoline prices are way up and diesel up even more. Natural gas prices spiking in most of the world, but unchanged in the US. Economics helps explain why. The energy markets courses that our Energy…

In my Energy Institute blog post this week, I highlight how microeconomics is key to understanding the war's impact on the price of oil, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, natural gas and other energy-intensive products in the US and around the world.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/03/23/t...

Sharing is Caring, Especially With the Electric Grid A new working paper highlights the challenges of working together. This Friday is one of the most exciting days of the year. I am talking, of course, about the leadEnergy Institute’s annual POWER c…

Busy wk before EI annual POWER Conf on Energy Research and Policy. Lucas Davis highlights one of the excellent conf papers in the EI blog. Loop flow issues and spillover impacts in Europe mirror problems Western US faces with congestion revenue allocation.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/03/16/s...

What Do Rising Gas Prices Mean for Californians? | KQED We look at the impact of the war on California’s oil industry and on you: How have you been affected by rising gas prices?

🎙️ON AIR:

We're talking to @ucenergyinstitute.bsky.social faculty director @severinborenstein.bsky.social and @calmatters.org's @gauchoesque.bsky.social about the impact of the Iran war on California's oil industry and on you.

❓How have you been affected by rising gas prices?

📻Listen:

Related to Meredith's blog on Monday - and demonstrating that we don't do as much hallway chat as we should - my oped in the SF Chronicle today on San Francisco's possible purchase of PG&E's distribution system in SF to create a municipal utility. www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/open...

Appeals court upholds California’s net metering 3.0 “Petitioners do not sufficiently describe the benefits of the tariff that the Commission purportedly failed to quantify,” the court said.

State judge upheld California's 2022 changes to its net metering tariff, known as NEM 3.0. Good news, though the change has actually turned out to be a very small step in addressing the state's rooftop solar cost shift.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/05/19/h...
www.utilitydive.com/news/appeals...

This Public Power Movement is Raising a Billion Dollar Question Who should pay to manage wildfire risk in California? As the climate gets warmer and weirder, it’s getting harder to safely move hundreds of gigawatts of electricity across millions of miles of pow…

I need to proofread my dictation software more carefully.

Meredith Fowlie, our utility wildfire risk maven, discusses how new CA legislation that REDUCES barriers to creating a municipal utility might shift the burden of wildfire prevention and damages.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/03/09/t...

This Public Power Movement is Raising a Billion Dollar Question Who should pay to manage wildfire risk in California? As the climate gets warmer and weirder, it’s getting harder to safely move hundreds of gigawatts of electricity across millions of miles of pow…

Meredith Fowlie, our utility wildfire risk maven, discusses how new CA legislation that produces barriers to creating a municipal utility might shift the burden of wildfire prevention and damages.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/03/09/t...

Gas prices are set to go vertical It's not exactly a bold prediction to suggest this will be bad for Trump's political standing.

The prediction markets have a very different view of nearterm gasoline prices than the futures market. I haven't done the full calculation with options prices, but it looks like there is probably an arbitrage opportunity.
www.natesilver.net/p/gas-prices...
www.wsj.com/market-data/...

Brent crude May contract closes at $93, but July 2026 is $83, Sept 2026 contract is $73 and May 2027 is $71. Traders still seem to think war impact will mostly be in next few months.
www.wsj.com/market-data/...

Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ policy shields consumers from Iran-driven oil shocks, economist says | Fox News Video Unleash Prosperity co-founder Stephen Moore says record U.S. oil and gas production will help counter Middle East turmoil and prevent a spike in gas prices in the wake of recent Iran strikes.

Disheartening to see anyone taken seriously who says US (or California) oil production protects consumers from Iran war impact. Producers argue world market sets the price. Correct! Oil price reflects value, not proximity, as recent gasoline price jumps show.
www.foxnews.com/video/639043...

EIA has a very nice In-brief Analysis showing just how remarkable the nearly 2 decades of flat electricity demand have been prior to the last few years.
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

The Electric Vehicle Tariff Boomerang If we want more EVs in the US, all we need to do is allow the world’s most popular EVs, which are made by Chinese brands, to compete directly in the US market. This is why I think a recent landmark…

Jim Sallee's EI blog today on how trump's misguided tariffs will bring inexpensive and impressive Chinese EV's to our neighbors. US auto policy only makes sense if climate change isn't real and EV tech progress will slow drastically. Pretty stupid bet.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/03/02/t...

Data Centers Are Creating a New Kind of Battery Monster Podcast Episode · Shift Key with Robinson Meyer · February 25 · 57m

Fascinating episode of Shift Key podcast on data centers and energy demand. Robinson Meyer interviews Peter Freed (former director of energy strategy at Meta from 2014 to 2024), who seems to be both knowledgeable and thoughtful on the subject.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/d...

High Costs and Few Benefits from California’s Proposed Sustainable Aviation Fuel Tax Credit This credit would reduce road funding, raise gasoline and diesel prices, and deliver small and expensive carbon emissions reductions. In California, road construction, maintenance, and repairs are …

Aaron Smith's EI blog reminds us that the details matter for full impact of enviro regulation. Mandate for "sustainable" aviation fuel will cannibalize renewable diesel for ground transport. Small incremental renewable fuel use, very small enviro benefit.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/02/23/h...