Oil Shock Resilience with Chinese Characteristics What the Iran War Reveals About Beijing’s Grand Strategy

Sorry Doro, how about this? geoeconomic.substack.com/p/energy-res...

China’s Edge in an Oil Shock: Electric Cars and Renewables

Pleased to be quoted in today's @nytimes.com, supporting their reporting on the Iran war with a China angle: “China’s push for renewable energy is not motivated by the environment but by the need for energy security and also as a driver of growth.”

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/b...

If the US aimed to hit China via Iran, they got the game wrong.geoeconomic.substack.com/publish/posts/detail/190...

The China "Solar Dominance" Panic Life in the Chinese solar tech business is like a gladiator's life. So what?

What does a year of German rearmament get you? If you're China, almost decade of cash to change the world's electricity infrastructure. geoeconomic.substack.com/p/the-china-...

On EVs, Europe Mistook Market Signals for Demand Brussels and National Capitals Needs to Learn about Whole Value Chain Planning to Stay Relevant

In the early days of Europe’s electric turn, the future arrived the way it often does on the old continent: as a folder. It had a title, an annex, a consultation period, and a gentle assumption that if the rules were correct and the incentives stable, reality would comply. How did this dream curdle?

My Icelandic family remembers the Americans made a better impression amongst the locals.

I agree with the criticism, but will be more detailed in next post

The American Toll Booth and the European Industrial Complex:
Europe's Problem Isn’t Just Trump. It’s What America Became.geoeconomic.substack.com/p/the-toll-booth-and-the...

Low chances

Donroe’s Rotor: Washington’s Complicated Meeting with China in Latin America Can the US do hemispheric strategy in the Southern Cone like it's 1957?

Donroe’s Rotor: Washington’s Complicated Meeting with China in Latin America. Can the US do hemispheric strategy in the Southern Cone like it's 1957? substack.com/home/post/p-...

Geoeconomic (@geoeconomic) Forget decoupling. German automakers go back to China to stay alive in the EV race.

Forget decoupling. German automakers go back to China to stay alive in the EV race.

It has become received wisdom in Brussels and Washington that there is a new “euro-sclerosis”: that the EU economy is lagging the US

This view is wrong

A little primer on the measurement of productivity – and why reports of the economic death of Europe are greatly exaggerated🧵

Macron in Chengdu The yard keeps growing. And the fence around China keeps shrinking.

Macron in Chengdu
The yard keeps growing. And the fence around China keeps shrinking.
geoeconomic.substack.com/p/macron-in-...

So This is How an Empire Coughs: Notes From the Financial Multipolarity Birthroom Don't hold your breath for a monetray hegemony transition, say Tobias Pforr, Fabian Pape, Johannes Petry

US is playing big old imperial haggling games in Europe this week end. But go to the monetary engine room is see that monetary hegemony is over. geoeconomic.substack.com/p/so-this-is...

So This is How an Empire Coughs: Notes From the Financial Multipolarity Birthroom Don't hold your breath for a monetray hegemony transition, say Tobias Pforr, Fabian Pape, Johannes Petry

Fantastic work. My pop summary on my Substack geoeconomic.substack.com/p/so-this-is...

Screenshot of the title page of linked article: "Noisy Politics, Quiet Technocrats: Strategic Silence by Central Banks" By Benjamin Braun and Maximilian Düsterhöft

🚨New article🚨 The consensus is that contestation pushed central banks to talk 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 about inequality & climate.

Our theory: At first, CBs seek to ward off politicization by talking 𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 about controversial topics.

We tested this 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐜 𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐡𝐲𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐬.🧵
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

The Wartburg Syndrome How the Old Continent Risks Becoming the New East Germany

Forget derisking. 2025 is about the the quiet MAGA-fication of the European mainstream, one green regulation rollback and green subsidy cut at a time. geoeconomic.substack.com/p/the-wartbu...

When Adam Smith was first translated in China and why that matters today geoeconomic.substack.com/p/the-long-m...

Theory: Economic decline feeds the far right. Romanians be like

Spare a State Subsidy for the Chainsaw Libertarian How the American State Keeps Milei’s Libertarian Revolution Solvent

To survive in the bond market, libertarianism needs subsidies. My latest geoeconomic.substack.com/p/spare-a-st...

🚨 Today, Common Wealth launches the Green Planning Commission.

A major new initiative to tackle the twin crises of our era: climate breakdown & the affordability crisis.

To meet these challenges, we need a new era of democratic planning.

🧵

https://www.common-wealth.org/green-planning-commission

For most of the post-Cold War era, Europe never intended to build autonomy in critical minerals. Why would it?geoeconomic.substack.com/p/the-smelter-and-the-so...

Well-put. Old enough to remember Wade's bon mot.

already 10+ years ago wade jacoby said that europe was a trade dependent status quo power in a world in which the status quo was disintegrating and trade was stagnating and this (car industry lobbying) is one big reason why the EU is not up to the challenge
h/t @palmapolyak.bsky.social

Central Banking for the End of Times Frankfurt measured the risk, Beijing moved the money, and Washington looked away.

When central banks were asked to "do smth" about climate, the Fed sat it out, the ECB experimented then retreated but the PBOC planned green and brown money at scale. geoeconomic.substack.com/p/central-ba...

VC à la CCP How Beijing fused planning and venture capital, outflanking the West’s innovation game

China’s approach to venture capital isn’t Silicon Valley 2.0 — it’s industrial strategy with a term sheet. And it explains better than subsidies or state banks why the country is a technological innovation superpower. geoeconomic.substack.com/p/vc-a-la-ccp

America, the Bumerang Master How Washington Built Chinese Leverage Over...Washington (on Tan, Dallas, Farrell, Newman)

Washington thought coercion would keep China down. But as @yelingtan.bsky.social @Mark Dallas @himself.bsky.social & @abenewman.bsky.social show, it did the opposite. Dependence became danger — and China learned to turn US pressure into its own power. geoeconomic.substack.com/p/america-th...

Party-State Decarbonisation The contradictions of China's decarbonisation

China is not just building clean energy faster than anyone else. It is trying to become something new.

Call it the electrostate. Still, big caveats loom, says Chris Saltmarsh in a superb @ripejournal.bsky.social article geoeconomic.substack.com/p/party-stat...

Geoeconomic | Substack Cornel Ban, associate prof at Copenhagen Business School and fellow at Boston University's China Initiative at the Global Development Program. Click to read Geoeconomic, a Substack publication with hu...

Friends, I have a substack with my thoughts and others on current events and megatrends from an international political economy perspective. geoeconomic.substack.com