One can hope! We could have been preparing with energy independence for years, and we have overall failed to meet the moment.

It'll be different, that's for sure. And some places affected more than others. I do wonder if some countries will have WFH recommendations or mandates to reduce demand on consumer gasoline

Effectively, to absorb this near 20% oil supply shock, the world has to shut down use for either making things and/or travel as much as we did in 2020. Hopefully this is resolved soon, as we will not like what is about to come.

I'm having major February 2020 vibes, where a major impact is coming in the near future, and again it feels like markets and most people don't see coming.

This time it's not a virus, but a supply shock.

15-20% of the oil production is offline, the same amount as during global lockdown.

Here's their data. In no way is that medium. They've called much higher values than this "low".

Pay no attention to those stated levels. They unfortunately have a very poor algorithm for their high/med/low callouts. They'll say high when it's low and low when it's high. I've contacted them multiple times to address this but they have not had any success yet.

Here is WWScan's national trend data since end of 2022. Prior to that they had very limited coverage outside of California.

April 10th Update:

Both NWSS and WWScan data sets suggest the lowest transmission levels in more than 4 years. BA.3.2 (Cicada) modestly impacting primarily the under 18 group.

Estimates:
🔸118,000 new infections/day
🔸~1 in 550 currently reasonably infectious (5 day window)

It's absolutely nuts that the CDC still has BA.3.2 (Cicada) under 1%, buried in the "All Other" category. This was modeled all the way to mid April.

➡️ The reality is BA.3.2 was likely ~10% over 4 weeks and is ~20% today in the US... 2000% higher than what they modeled.

Honest question, why hasn't the market crashed yet? This feels like Feb 2020, when we saw what was coming, but no one flinched.

And this is a supply shock, not a demand shock!

In hindsight, the name "Cicada" fits like a glove for BA.3.2.

All cicadas are ages 0-17, and that is precisely the most susceptable age group for BA.3.2.

There are 10,000x MORE stars in the universe than grains of sand *on all the beaches and deserts on earth*

In that context, our radio signals first sent out 100 years ago have not even reached the next grain of sand. The rest of the universe has no idea we're here.

Anyone with even a high school background in biology would know "cross breeding" with aliens is an insane impossibility. If aliens were on earth (they're not), their genetic code language and cellular mechanisms would be different than earth life. You'd have better luck crossing humans with a radish

Great work on this tool, Mike.

↘️
@kkjetelina.bsky.social 's YLE has a wonderful analysis here, calling out the continuously receding peaks in hospitalizations over the past 4 years. We see the same trends in wastewater. The question that plagues WW is whether the signal/infection has decreased over the past few years.

BA.3.2 continues to increase in prevalence, primarily in the 0-18 age group. This will probably not affect wider trends in the short term, but we will continue to monitor it. Below are the regional trends from NWSS:

March 29th Update:

Nearing record lows in transmission since Omicron in late 2021. Midwest and South are low, while Northeast and West are at very low transmission levels.
Estimates:
🔸135,000 new infections/day
🔸~1 in 500 currently reasonably infectious (5 day avg window)

Very interesting trend of EPIC ED data... note the overrepresentation of kids compared to 50+ (and overall average) since Feb compared to prior years.

Could this be due to BA.3.2 targeting kids?

Nice comments, Ryan!

This is the sequence data as a percentage of each variant in each age group (only including XFG*, NB*, and BA.3.2*)

It could be that their immune systems are more trained for newer variants, and the original strains were closer to BA.3.2. We don't know for sure yet.

A few of us were looking into this recently as well in Luxembourg, & it was remarkable how few BA.3.2 sequences were from the elderly, and how many were from younger groups. We may have narrowed the co-circulation target. Worth digging further.

Ty @josetteschoenma.bsky.social for pulling these data

While the final outcome for BA.3.2 is uncertain, its distinct characteristics—extensively remodeled/shortened spike NTD & SD1/SD2, novel S2 mutations, & wholesale deletion of ORF7a/7b/8—make it the best candidate for co-dominance we've seen yet, which could mark a new era in SARS-2 evolution. 1/34

This is the worst type of messaging, and further undermines trust in public health
🔸️Meningococcal meningitis absolutely spreads through respiratory droplets
🔸️Masks significantly limit transmission, especially via source control. 10% Case fatality rate. I'd be wearing one if I were at Kent.

Flu A has almost fully retreated, but Flu B has picked up some of the vacancy. The worst part of Flu season is clearly behind us.

Data from Biofire

About 50k

Was taking a break from social media, but I plan on posting more again

March 10th Update:
After a relatively low transmission winter, we had a long shoulder, but numbers are starting to trend further down. Still elevated in the Midwest and Northeast. NWSS & WWScan:

Estimates:
🔸325,000 new infections/day
🔸~1 in 200 currently infected

Yes those with significant growth advantage absolutely have. I think most everyone else reading my post understood that was implied.

The growth rate in Germany was ~70% about 6 weeks ago.

Shot/chaser!

Within 3 hours of this tweet, we've had three massive flares!!

X8.1 🔆
X1.5 🔆
X2.7 🔆

Wow this could be an exciting week