#Waller’s warning about #inflation is significant as he is both a dove and has called the economy right more than anyone: check out my latest #Substack 👇 - plus: implications of #Hungary’s #election for #Europe and the #euro.
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Does shrinking the #Fed #balance_sheet really enable rate ✂️ My latest #Substack 👇
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
The stakes of the election could not be higher: if Orbán wins, #Hungary will continue its slide into autocracy domestically and will keep blocking joint action at the EU level wrote @zecsaky.bsky.social in her @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight, read here:
Question that’s puzzling me for years: given 1956, how come majority of Hungarians have voted for a pro-Russian Orban?
The vast majority of Hungary's 7.6 million voters have made up their minds regarding where their crosses are going on Sunday's ballots. Few of the 350K or so who haven't and who might yet vote are unlikely to be persuaded by the razzamatazz provided by Vance's soiree in town 1/
Piece on the #geopolitical role of the #euro and what the #ECB can do to support it.
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#eurozone selling price expectations saw a sharp rise in March, but so far only for #industry.
#inflation #oil #Iran
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
Resilience: world #exports vs #US effective #tariff rate
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
No matter what Trump’s response is (and we have a pretty good idea what it will be), no defense secretary has ever so elegantly denied the U.S. commitment to Article 5.
Have you heard the one about the Iranian ploy to dethrone the dollar by demanding payment in CNY instead of USD for oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz?
No joke—it’s raising quite a ballyhoo!
It’s the latest bout of alarmism over dollar dominance. Here’s my take:
fortune.com/2026/03/30/p...
Stunning performance of #China #exports since the #Trump #tariffs 👇
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Will he #TACO? President #Trump faces a #trilemma in #Iran.
Check out my new #substack 👇
How #ECB has responded to #oil shocks in the past and what it means for now (incl. this week's #ECBmeeting). #Iran #inflation #energy #oilshock #Europe #centralbanks
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
IMO, it’s important to be precise about what shocks world is undergoing rather than just $ smile safe-haven bla-bla.
1. Febs 2022 & 2026 were negative global energy supply shocks —> positive US ToT shocks.
2. Feb & April 2025 were US global public goods withdrawal —> RoW fiscal expansion shocks.
The #ECB’s liquidity lines could become Europe’s equivalent of the Fed’s global dollar backstop — if policy-makers dare to scale them up.
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @thinicemacro.bsky.social
& @sandertordoir.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/Cr4aLFO
🛢️Fun fact on #US #economy and #oilprice spike👇
share of #gasoline and #energy in #US #consumer #spending at all-time low of 2% in Dec 2025 (latest PCE), equal to Jan 2002 and lower only during Covid (WTI 19$).
#FOMC
#Iran #war #oil #oilprice
#ThinIceMacro
#globalmacro
Higher European defence spending and the EU’s reputation for institutional stability could strengthen global demand for euro-denominated assets.
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @thinicemacro.bsky.social
& @sandertordoir.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/Cr4aLFO
former @ecb.europa.eu economists argue for strengthening the international role of the euro: The ECB’s bid to strengthen the euro’s global role by @thinicemacro.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social 20 February 2026
www.cer.eu/insights/ecb...
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @thinicemacro.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/Cr4aLFO
important piece by my colleague @sandertordoir.bsky.social & @thinicemacro.bsky.social - geopolitical power and the currency go together, and as the dollar's domination is shaken, there is an opportunity for the euro, and Europe, to play a bigger role.
New piece with former fellow ECB hand @thinicemacro.bsky.social.
At the Munich Security Conference, the ECB made its geopolitical move, opening repo lines to central banks globally.
It was probably the most consequential policy announcement at the conference.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ecb...
‼️ Joint piece with @sandertordoir.bsky.social on the #ECB #geopolitical tools and how it advances the role of the #euro 👇
#CER
#ThinIceMacro
🇯🇵 #Takaichi landslide #election victory is an opportunity for a policy reset in #Japan: she needs to restore the credibility of the policy #framework- #BoJ and #fiscal 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB will be on hold in next week’s meeting, so market focus will be on the #euro.
👉 Language on #fx next week shouldn’t be much more than the usual
❗️Another leg down in #USD could elicit stronger language
My meeting preview: 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB verbal intervention on #USD weakness has started, and it’s bipartisan:
Kocher (Austria) - hawk: “ECB would need to act if euro keeps gaining”
Villeroy (France) - dove: “Strong euro is element that will guide ECB policy.”
Still, a long way away from action. #EUR #euro
Small example of how far-right populists in Europe will ... how can I put this?, struggle to co-operate.
cf also AfD views on France asking the #ECB to help with French debt costs.
www.linkedin.com/posts/spyros...
In 🇩🇪, a few thoughts on the situation in #Japan 🇯🇵 #JPY #JGB #BoJ #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro #econtwitter
Is it just me or was Carney’s speech mainly addressed at Europe? Digested read: “wake up, stop whining, get your act together.”
The next #ECB Pres should be German 🇩🇪, I argued - reprinted by the @financialtimes.com (thank you @olafstorbeck.ft.com).
With plenty of qualified people around for the position, 🇪🇺 can afford to make a choice for the right #political, even #geopolitical, reasons.
Link to the full piece 👇
