The US blocked a $500-million shipment of dollar banknotes to Iraq – 2nd time since the Iran war began
The cash is Iraq's money, proceeds from oil sales held at the New York Fed
Iraq needs the notes to keep its cash-based economy functioning
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Porous blockade:
• Iranian ships are sailing past US blockade line at Hormuz
• This article says they've moved 9 million barrels of oil to the market
• That's about 1 million barrels of oil per day, given that the blockade began on 13 April
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Tuesday TACO:
• Trump has extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely
• After saying on Monday it was “highly unlikely” that he'd prolong the truce
• He'll maintain a blockade on ships going to and from Iran
Oil reaction? Price is up to almost $100
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump on Iran:
• Ceasefire expires Wednesday evening US time
• He's unlikely to extend the truce
• Pakistan talks to begin Tuesday night or Wednesday morning
Iran has yet to confirm participation
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
For more, you can watch my take on @BloombergTV around minute 4:00 here
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrTd...
This report says the UAE is asking the US for a currency swap
Don't think this is about dollar shortages:
• The UAE is wealthy
• The Iran war has reduced but not stopped oil exports
• It just signed its own swap deal with Bahrain
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
"Trump said the Navy stopped and boarded an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, “blowing a hole” in its engine room after it ignored warnings to stop"
Ceasefire!
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
I told Vivian Nereim of @nytimes.com that the Saudi story always begins & ends with oil
That surging oil prices have helped Riyadh offset export losses from the Iran war
And that a decade into Vision 2030, economic performance is still linked to oil
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/w...
Probability of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end-April?
Near 40% yesterday
Close to 20% today
Source: Polymarket
Doesn't look like de-escalation → "The US has already turned back 23 ships that have sought to leave Iranian ports .. the broadening of the campaign will enable the US to take control of .. vessels around the world, including ships carrying Iranian oil"
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Hormuz & Lebanon were always the 2 main hurdles to a ceasefire in the Middle East. They still are.
Hormuz: Iran says the waterway is closed. The US blockade continues.
Lebanon: A truce came on Thursday. Israel struck targets on Saturday.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Markets think the Iran war is over
• Oil fell to $90 per barrel from $95 a week earlier
• US stocks have rallied to an all-time high
• The dollar has nearly erased all war gains, having lured investors seeking safety during conflict
5/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The Iran war is costly for the world
• The IMF sees slower growth & higher inflation
• Uncertainty is so deep it published 3 scenarios, not one – we did the same a week ago
• Under the worst case ($110 oil), the world would tip towards recession
4/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Lebanon truce
• Trump announced a 10-day Lebanon-Israel ceasefire on Thursday
• He said the US was prohibiting Israel from bombing Lebanon any longer
• Israel said it hadn’t “finished the job” against Hezbollah & its troops would remain in Lebanon
3/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Iran says Hormuz is open
• It linked the reopening to the Lebanon ceasefire
• The US had imposed its own blockade on Iran earlier in the week
• Ship traffic through the strait remained a fraction of pre-war levels
2/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
5 things that happened this week:
Trump signalled an end to his 7-week Iran war
• Claimed Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear programme indefinitely
• Said Iran agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again
• Iran hasn’t confirmed these claims
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump is optimistic about a permanent ceasefire with Iran, but Gulf & European leaders think a deal could take months
Trump also announced a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire
Polls show most Americans disapprove of the war; oil is at $98
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
When countries need cash, they turn to allies
Recent examples:
1. Pakistan secured a $3bn loan from Saudi
2. Bahrain signed a $5bn currency swap with UAE
3. Jordan to receive $2.3bn in UAE investment
4. Iraq got a waiver from Iran to pass Hormuz
Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal
UAE "said in-person classes at schools can restart on April 20 .. as a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran holds"
"Distance learning began on March 2 and was extended until April 17 for all nurseries and public and private schools"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The UAE will invest in Jordan
• Amount: $2.3 billion railway project
• Vehicle: L'imad – a newly created sovereign wealth fund
• Official: biggest investment in Jordan in 25 years
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Hormuz splits 8 nations into 4 stories:
1. Iran & Oman: oil still flows → higher earnings
2. Saudi & UAE: partial reroutes → prices offset lost output
3. Kuwait & Qatar: export hit → but wealth cushion
4. Iraq & Bahrain: export halt → can’t afford it
Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal
Italy "Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suspended a more than two-decade old defense pact with Israel in light of the ongoing war with Iran"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Saudi will lend $3 billion to Pakistan
UAE asked Pakistan to repay a $3 billion loan earlier this month
Saudi & Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact in September
UAE & Saudi had a rift before the Iran war
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reckoning with Israel’s One State Reality— @stelhami.bsky.social and I joined @ezraklein.bsky.social podcast. It was good.
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/14/o...
We even had a tree for that
A striking point in this account of how Trump went to war is: insiders – like outside analysts – were unsure if initial strikes would cripple Iran & prevent retaliation
"No amount of military insight could truly gauge what Iran would do in retaliation"
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...
The IEA sees demand destruction → "Global oil demand will decline this year for the first time since the 2020 pandemic as a price surge caused by the Middle East conflict wipes out growth"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Saudi is pressing the US to drop its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
It fears Iranian retaliation in Bab el-Mandeb, now its main oil export route
It has secured Houthi pledges not to target the kingdom or its shipping
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
