WOW.

Tim Cook stepping down. $AAPL

Iran-linked tankers that haven't yet been placed under US sanctions continue to move freely in and out of the region. US Treasury's OFAC has slapped sanctions on 397 Iran-linked tankers but there are another 236 we know about which OFAC haven't yet addressed. #OOTT #IranWar

The Downballot's 1Q 2026 Senate and House fundraising reports roundup We have complete data on more than 900 candidates for Congress

Here's your must-review data dump for the weekend via @the-downballot.com:

A full list of all Q1 Senate and House fundraising reports, from money raised to money spent to cash-on-hand.

Dive in!

www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downba...

Ok to explain why this is important:
1) doing this under cover of exercise confirms what a lot of folks have thought: larger exercises are precursors for an invasion
2) it reveals a confidence in PLA SOF not previously seen in public
3) makes deterrence even harder if operators are already on ground

Might be game on again.
Watching carefully. 😐

WHY ISN'T ANYONE TALKING ABOUT THE REAL NEWS STORIES!!!

There are, they're just turning their AIS off.

bsky.app/profile/tank...

If you're wondering how the blockade is landing, this has been making its way around the naval nerds today

PSA:

I will NOT ask you to join my special trade alerts on WhatsApp.

Those are the spammers.

Economists at the Dallas Fed try to model the effects on PCE inflation of a one-, two-, or three-quarter disruption of oil shipping through Hormuz

The model projects WTI prices peaking at $110, $132, or $167 per barrel depending on the length of the closure www.dallasfed.org/~/media/docu...

US will blockade the SoH

Well.

Other engineers don't think you can "solve" failures wholesale. Your dam will crack, your timing belt will break, your capacitor will blow.
You only get to choose when and at what rate. You can't have both cheap and safe.

SWE is no different: it's risk management and cost tradeoffs.

P.T.S.D.

Drake meme Top (no): Carcinization Bottom (yes): Ralphization

This @nytimes.com piece on Iran's propaganda war is amazing, BUT it leaves out a very important detail:

In the incident involving the U.S. F/A-18 Hornet was not faked. At least not entirely.

The plane was ALMOST shot out of the sky....

A short🧵

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING IS POISED TO MEET THE HEAD OF TAIWAN'S BIGGEST OPPOSITION PARTY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST A DECADE - SOURCES

(Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell summoned Wall Street leaders to an urgent meeting on concerns that the latest artificial intelligence model from Anthropic PBC will usher in an era of greater cyber risk. Bessent and Powell assembled the group at Treasury's headquarters in Washington on Tuesday to make sure banks are aware of possible future risks raised by Anthropic's Mythos and potential similar models, and are taking precautions to defend their systems, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified citing the private discussions. A representative for the Treasury didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. A spokesperson for the Fed declined to comment. The previously unreported meeting, arranged on short notice, is another sign that regulators consider the possibility of a new breed of cyber attacks as one of the biggest risks facing the financial industry. All the banks summoned to the meeting are classified as systemically important by top regulators, meaning their stability is a priority for the global financial system.

This is really impressive speed tbh. Not much gets by Powell.

Spirited spirits

$XLF down just 3 sessions in the last 3 weeks.. bank earnings on tap.. @stockcharts

$VIX sub-20... $MOVE sub-75

I'm not Catholic, but the opportunity to rename the US as "The Papal States" is too funny...

Perhaps they see it as a "Pandora's Box" situation. Once Hormuz is subject to a toll, what's stopping Malaysia from instituting one in Malacca or Yemen from trying on in Bab-el-Mandeb? Once tolls are legitimized, what's to stop a nation from blocking transit for non-toll reasons?

WTF!

The two-week ceasefire plan includes allowing both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a regional official said.-AP

According to various reports, several B-52 aircraft have just scrambled from a British airbase and are allegedly bound for Iran.

That's it for the Mid East, afaik. There are several other ongoing conflicts elsewhere, of course.

Politics & Prose and GW Present: Planet Money Live - with Jeff Guo, Jack Corbett, Alex Mayyasi, and Joseph Politano

Hello DC-area friends!

Do you wanna hear more about tariffs? Do you like Books?Do you want a CUSTOM NPR tote bag?

This Wednesday, I have the honor of joining NPR's Planet Money for a LIVE show as part of their book tour! Come out and join us—tickets are here:
calendar.gwu.edu/event/politi...

A Harrowing Race Against Time to Find a Downed U.S. Airman in Iran

The story of this rescue mission is a hell of a read.

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/05/u...

A Hungarian candidate named Magyar is just too much.