Iran Financial Markets Flank Renewed Roller Coaster Iran’s stock exchange, as in last year’s half as long US/Israel attacks, was closed while fixed income and gold trade carried on, and with banks will soon fully reopen if the ceasefire holds after a t...

#Iran's stock exchange, 700 listings but only 20% free float, -25% on military intervention threat as central bank/Treasury bill return rate blew out to 40%, negative in real terms with inflation 50%. #Lebanon stocks -12%. Read analysis for free this week: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

QI Equity Gain Erase Muffles Mojo After a two month +15% tear, both the MSCI core and frontier stock market indices on March’s Mideast war battering veered marginally negative for the quarter at -1/2% and -1.5% respectively.

#EmergingMarkets equities, after 2 months +15%, @MSCI core and frontier marginally negative for quarter after start of #IranWar. #Asia -2%, #GCC +1% as @Aramco's +10% offset -30% for UAE property. EM index dominated by @TaiwanSemi_TS, 13%. Deeper dive at: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Q1 Debt Markets Dodge Dire Straits After a month of Gulf war which merited passing reference to previous 1990s and 2000s confrontations with scant application to today’s all-embracing asset class geography and taxonomy, fixed income ma...

#EmergingMarkets fixed income flat in Q1 after #IranWar sell-off. Oil-reliant #Turkey resorted to cenbank gold reserve intervention. #Iraq/#Lebanon sov spreads +250 bps, #Mozambique/#Senegal teetering on default. MidEast external corporates -2.5%. More at: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Senegal Overstretch Saga Shadows Francophone Debt Diversion The Iran war stopped QI Sub-Sahara African sovereign bond issuance at $6 billion, double last year’s pace, in its tracks with all but Kenya from the dual CFA West and Central zones with their common c...

#Senegal worst African distressed spread at 1200 bps and on outs with IMF. 1/3 of WAMU borrowing in Q1, most in T-bills to cover huge $475 million global repayment this month. External commercial debt payments $4.5 billion this year. Subscribe for more: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

East Asia Oil Import Pincer Beckons Bond Backstop Since the Iran war outbreak East Asian financial markets have been particularly whacked, with Korea summoning its stabilization fund after a 2-day 20% stock setback, as their outsize reliance on Midea...

#IranWar‌ has battered East Asian financial markets with their outsize reliance on MidEast oil imports. @AsianDevelopmentBank latest bond monitor tracks 9 markets with total of $30 trillion. #China biggest, 80%, and tops Green issuance. Read analysis at: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Mideast War Week Wields High Frequency Onslaught This week as the MSCI stock index gain halved to +7% and bond counterparts barely stayed positive with JP Morgan’s local and hard currency corporate and sovereign varieties all +1% year to date, the I...

#Israel/US #Iran war draws comparisons to #Russia-#Ukraine. Stocks from 10 countries massive setbacks: India, Taiwan, Korea worst. 2026 had been widely hyped as equity banner year in EM. #Saudi_Arabia and #UAE markets down -8% and -5%. Read analysis at: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Latam Liftoff Peels Second-Tier Layers Latin America’s +20% on the MSCI stock index dusted other regions the first two months as it reverted to darling status last seen in the early 2000s, when its combined share of the benchmark was 15% c...

#LatinAmerica's stock exchanges +20% on @MSCI first 2 months, reverted to "darling" status last seen 20+ years ago. #Brazil foreign inflows $8 billion, #2 globally after AI hub #Taiwan. FX/bonds in play in #CostaRica, #Panama, #DominicanRepublic. More at: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

FDI Feint Glorifies Global South Base As foreign fund investment in emerging markets tracked by high-frequency EPFR and local official data maintains a scorching $10 billion/week clip, attention has turned to FDI flows counted globally by...

#EmergingMarkets attracted 55% of #ForeignDirectInvestment last year according to @UNCTAD's annual trends report. Overall global FDI +5% ex-offshore centers. @FT FDI Markets found G-7 leapfrogged by EM in new economy sectors. Subscribe for analysis at: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Zambia Comprehensive Comeback Belatedly Blesses Debt Framework Five years into its G20 joint official-private restructuring saga as the original 2020 entrant, Zambia’s kwacha +15%, and local bond and stock indices +20% continue their tear the first two months of ...

#Zambia stocks, bonds and currency continue 2025’s rally as it exits IMF program. Credit ratings hiked but debt/GDP still 95% as elections approach with current President HH likely to win 2nd term. GDP growth +6% on copper production/prices. Subscribe for more: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

EM January Repeat Riff Needles Nostalgia Nod The blistering performance and record-setting growth pace from 2025 continued for emerging market debt and equity through January, prompting inquiries from student and young professional readers in pa...

#EmergingMarkets debt and equity continued 2025's strong performance, record setting growth pace in Jan. $40 billion dedicated equity flows, external corp bond issuance $90 billion. Mood, upswing comparable to launch of asset class 40 years ago. Read the history: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Indonesia Prabowo Preen Fans Floating Anxiety Indonesia’s stock index was at the bottom of the MSCI -5%, as well as the FX pack -3% in January after a one-day -8% route on provider reminder of 7.5% free float, half the core roster norm.

#Indonesia stocks worst on MSCI #EmergingMarkets in January, -5%, currency -3%, after index provider warned index cut or demotion to frontier. Foreign investors dumped $200 million in stocks, bought same amount local bonds, hold 15%. Subscribe for analysis: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

World Bank History Slaps Frontier Market Frenzy After 2025 frontier debt and equity 40%+ gains outpacing the emerging market index composite, the World Bank has weighed in with a 25-year skeptical retrospective since the category was founded across...

#FrontierMarkets debt and equity performance outpaced #EmergingMarkets in 2025. @WorldBank traces evolution in a skeptical 25-year retrospective noting average stock market cap at only 18%/GDP, high debt service, sovereign defaults. Our analysis at: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Frontier, Local Bonds Hoist Annual Index Prize While emerging market bonds have outperformed developed counterparts post-covid, 2025 witnessed asset class enthusiasm especially around the top +20% range returning local and frontier JP Morgan indic...

#EmergingMarket bonds continued to outperform developed ones in 2025. Combined gross issuance from external sovereign/corporate $735 billion. #SouthAfrica, #Mexico, #Brazil, #Uruguay best, #Venezuela, #Lebanon led frontier. Subscribe for analysis at open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Iran Zeroes Out Economic Comeback Choreography The past year and a half since self-styled economic reformer Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian won election to succeed his hardline predecessor killed in a car crash has been a non-stop succession of p...

#Iran is in headlines but longtime followers have been monitoring succession of power/water and currency/banking/fiscal crises. #Tehran Stock Exchange +45% in 2025, mirroring inflation rate, with P/E ratios in single digits for 5 years. Read analysis at: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Emerging Market Stocks Recapture Asset Class Acclaim The past year young student and junior professional readers of our book “Emerging Economies and Financial Markets” https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-85669-3 with no firsthand memory hav...

#EmergingMarkets +30% in 2025 on @MSCI_Inc and #frontiermarkets +40% on foreign inflows of $30 billion. Total EM market cap $10 trillion vs. just over $20 billion in 1987 when Kleiman International started. Frontier cap $180 billion. Subscribe for analysis: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Russia-Ukraine Juncture Jangles Financial Market Casualties With indirect peace feelers brokered by the US reaching a crescendo Russia and Ukraine securities markets with their own adaptation and survival strategies may also be entering another phase where the...

#Ukraine, #Russia in spotlight after Prez Zelensky's US trip. Kiev local FX/government bond return 15% YTD, 2029 bond low 60s after meeting. Russia local 10-year yield 14.5% on record RUB 8 trillion issuance, local stocks +20%. Subscribe for analysis at: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Venezuela Refugee Recoil Sways LatAm Voters As the US ramps up its military and psychological campaign for “illegitimate” President Nicholas Maduro’s exit the 2027 defaulted benchmark sovereign bond has roughly doubled in price to 30 cents this...

#Venezuela 2027 bond doubled in price this year as US ramps up campaign for Maduro exit. 7 million Venezuelan refugees in 17 countries throughout #LatinAmerica impacting economies and recent/upcoming elections across the region. Subscribe for analysis: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Thailand-Cambodia Feud Unearths Economic Landmines After a several month pause and putative ceasefire negotiated by US President Trump on his string of Nobel Prize aspiring peacemaking efforts, the Thailand-Cambodia border war erupted full force last ...

#Thailand-#Cambodia border war weighs on both economies. Baht continues to surge, +8%/$ YTD, while Thai stocks -10% on MSCI, worst in Asia, on foreign sell-off. Riel up 3%/$, government debt/GDP 30%. Thailand's heading to 60%. Subscribe for analysis: kleimaninternational.substack.com/p/thailand-c...

West Africa CFA Franc Becomes “Coup for All” Zone With Benin and Guinea Bissau joining the past week, intended and successful coups have now reached the majority of the eight country West Africa Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) sharing a common cu...

#Benin, #GuineaBissau joined majority of #WAEMU neighbors with intended/successful coups as #cotedivoire Prez inaugurated again. #Benin now Africa bond darling, up 9% YTD, and pioneer in #SDG borrowing. Guinea Bissau domestic debt 50%/GDP+. Read more at: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Refugee Specter Stalks South Asia Snapback The Afghan refugee shooting of two soldiers in Washington briefly brought attention to closed US entry since the Trump Administration took office, and the reverse deportation campaign forcibly returni...

#Afghanistan's refugees are in spotlight after DC shooting while #Pakistan has sent back a million this year and #Bangladesh hosts refugees from #Myanmar. #SriLankafloods have displaced millions. Interest service/debt high in region. Subscribe for more: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Saudi Arabia Road Show Takes Civil War Detour In chapter six of our book “Emerging Economies and Financial Markets” https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-85669-3 we describe the rise of sovereign wealth funds when Saudi Arabia’s PIF ha...

#SaudiArabia's stocks -5.5% YTD on @MSCI_Inc with volume down 25% with $3 trillion market cap. Still no clarity for non-rez equity majority ownership. On-track to enter JP Morgan's local GBI-EM benchmark. Aid to #Yemen $1 billion, #Sudan in focus. More at: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Congo-Laos Bond Bender Evokes Exotics Era Euphoria Our book “Emerging Economies and Financial Markets” https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-85669-3 unknowingly has given frontier sovereign debt buy and sell-side research operations another...

#Congo and #Laos with CCC ratings, 90% debt/GDP ratios and no IMF programs in place came to market with coupons in the 10% range. Congo absent since defaults in 2016-17 while Laos liquid FX reserves less than $2 billion. Subscribe for analysis: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Uzbekistan White House Splash Solidifies Central Asia Second Tier In book talks on “Emerging Economies and Financial Markets” https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-85669-3 such as we were privileged to deliver in New York City this past week to Columbia U...

#CentralAsia takes the spotlight after DC summit. #Kazahstan was the first portfolio/FDI destination and now investment grade. #Uzbekistan FX/govt bonds +25% YTD as #Kyrgyzstan and #Tajikistan top medium-term regional growth, 8-9%. Subscribe for more: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Caribbean-Central America Storm Track Transfixes Investor Niche The Jamaica Category 5 hurricane, almost a year after a previous one, this time triggered a $150 million World Bank catastrophe bond payout as all meteorological criteria were met, although the amount...

#Jamaica s $150 million World Bank cat bond was triggered by last week's hurricane which will send the nation into recession. #Suriname returned to the bond market to buy time before its offshore oil starts to pay out. More on #Caribbean/CentAm region at: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Kleiman International's Substack | Substack Emerging economy/financial market all points bulletin with historic flavor. Investment-development analysts 40-year wisdom, career-tested color. Click to read Kleiman International's Substack, a Subst...

#Jamaica, #Tanzania top #EmergingMarkets posts past week: Jamaica focus of world as #hurricane Melissa hit; Tanzania election carnage descent; Tanzania shilling flat/$ 10 mo; Tanzania Prez Hassan 95% re-elect; Jamaica stock index -5% past yr. More at: kleimaninternational.substack.com

Poland Developed Stock Index Quest Outlasts West Goading We have just finished the rollicking memoir ­“Frontier” of a London-based Central Europe investment banking colleague Jonathan Young (Manannan Press) overlapping with our own four decade ago arrival t...

#Poland's quest to be the first stock exchange in Central Europe to be upgraded from #EmergingMarkets status comes as it joins neighbors #Hungary and #CzechRepublic in turning in 50% gains Q1-3. Subscribe to read a brief analytical history of the markets: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Africa Market Development Index Draws Decade Divide In our book “Emerging Economies and Financial Markets” https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-85669-3 we have taken particular pride as original US technical assistance providers to African ...

#Africa financial markets annual @AFMI index covers 30 countries across 5 components. #SouthAfrica and #Mauritius on top with start-up/nascent ones in #DRC, #Madagascar, #Ethiopia at bottom. @KleimanInt provided technical assistance to many. Read more: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Markets weigh Washington’s new Latin America power play - LatinFinance Investors see opportunity and risk as the U.S. mixes financial aid with military pressure

#LatinAmerica-US financial/military relations focus of our wide-ranging discussion with @LatinFinance as Washington buys #Argentina's pesos under "economic Monroe Doctrine" and expands military operations near #Venezuela. latinfinance.com/daily-brief/... #EmergingMarkets

Investors Eye Israel, Egypt after Hostages Released Local markets cheered the hostage release deal with Hamas, sending the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange to an all-time high and the shekel to a 3-year high against the dollar.

#Israel and #Egypt are on investor radar screens after hostage release deal. Tel Aviv stocks hit all time high, local index up 81% since Oct. 7 2023. #Egypt FX reserves at record with inflation at lowest in 40 years. Privatization lags. Subscribe for more: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...

Stock Market Q3 Commands Asset Class Crown We have been reminded regularly in formal and casual interactions around our book https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-85669-3 that Gen Z, in the vanguard of anti-government movements in S...

#EmergingMarkets stocks up 25% on @MSCI Q1-3, led by LatAm +40% with EMEA and Asia +25%. #Greece led +75% on ratings upgrades and debt/GDP post-crisis low with #Colombia #2 on "Anyone but Petro." #Indonesia, #Philippines at bottom. Subscribe for more: open.substack.com/pub/kleimani...