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Given how voters usually respond instinctively negatively towards anything Starmer does, these seem like pretty good numbers for him

I had not seem the chat on here, but yes: bsky.app/profile/dami...

This is not a robust way to assess the potential of a new party, the “new entry” is given prominence vs the alternatives - so what you see is more of a survey effect than a real vote intention. I imagine the % of people who even know what this party *is* is close to 1%

Much of the pol sci analysis has positioned McSweeney as a veto player against a proper policy reset. If that's true, then Keir Starmer now has his first real opening to reset on policy lines - the question is whether he now uses it - I think we can avoid rushing to judgement.

I like to think they decided his European role for Trump whispering purposes is “good cop” vs Macron’s bad cop…

Sign me up!

Anyway, obviously very, very important not to be blasé about an actual armed conflict with the US, but I do genuinely think over this year the US is suddenly going to find out that "being the most powerful country in the world" is still fundamentally reliant on having allies.

Strong agree.

Josephine (French Edit) YouTube video by Chris Rea - Topic

RIP Chris Rea
youtu.be/FJCg_3DfKvU

Indeed, there was already Labour => Plaid switching, there was not as you say much more Labour lemon to squeeze from the point the poll was in the field. I do buy your argument that a poll showing a Reform victory was highly plausible dragged (otherwise) non voters out to the polls to stop that…

Survation October Newsletter: Long Nights, Illuminating Insights

This month, we've covered Welsh politics, the Labour deputy leadership election, and much more.

Read in full: shorturl.at/D7Bav

Subscribe to our mailing list here: eepurl.com/mOK8P

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I don’t this poll is evidence to that regard, more like - when you’ve got this type of churn going on 2 weeks out, and *then* the constituency gets told LAB/CON are out and only a Plaid vote stops Reform, there will be movement…

Hi Will, are you saying you are sure there was no movement in the last 3 weeks of the campaign? No further tactical switching, no effect of GOTV from the parties?

Note of caution on More in Common’s MRP showing a chunky Reform overall majority. It is based on a *10pt* REF lead over LAB. The pollster’s regular VI is just a 3 pt lead. MRP is not very good at getting national shares correct and needs assistance - which does not appear to have happened here.

Ballot Box Scotland Democracy in Detail

Ballotbox.scot with their usual excellent coverage of our Scotland polling this week:
ballotbox.scot/survation-se...

Some thoughts on our new poll of Labour members on behalf of @labourlist.bsky.social:

Disappointed By Labour's Direction, Labour Members Turn To Lucy Powell in the Deputy Leader Race:
mailchi.mp/survation/ne...

Refs: Our MP Left Right Project with @royalholloway.bsky.social @vlazarov.bsky.social and UK in a Changing Europe

mpsleftright.co.uk

Full data tables from this week’s Survation & @labourlist.bsky.social Labour Members polling on the Deputy Leadership: survation.com/archive/2025...

Bridget Phillipson had the strongest net positive rating among members of any MP we tested: +35% (good candidate – bad candidate). By contrast, Powell was more divisive at just +1%. Running as the “anti-Starmer” candidate now could be a tough sell given the nature of the role.

However, if Phillipson becomes Labour’s Deputy Leader, most members will be reasonably happy. Survation found:

>80% of member say it’s important the DL is from outside London
>73% say it’s important the candidate is female
>A majority say being outside government is unimportant

Emily Thornberry might have been a unifying candidate across the "Labour family". For example, 46% of Labour members who backed Rebecca Long-Bailey in 2020 told Survation she’d be a good Deputy Leader candidate - compared to just 28% for Phillipson and 25% for Powell.

Both candidates are perceived as being to the right of the median Labour MP. Here’s Bridget Phillipson:

Labour's Next Deputy Leader?
In terms of an ideological battle, there’s likely little perceived difference between Lucy Powell and Bridget Phillipson. In our councillor perceptions study of MPs on economic issues (mpsleftright.co.uk), both scored near-identical results.

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention

RFM 30 (+3)
LAB 24 (-)
CON 19 (-1)
LD 11 (-2)
GRN 8 (-)
OTH 6 (-2)

F/w 28th August- 2nd September 2025. Changes vs 2nd June.

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I think if a concerned member of the public spotted these on a person, and called it in, the police would have a lot of explaining to do to not be taking it seriously. A jury would not have convicted here, given the law (there was a good reason to possess), but the police operated within guidance.

Polling & Political Strategy: An Inside Look At What Parties Really Know About Voters In the most recent episode of The Political Marketing Podcast I had the privilege of sitting down with Damian Lyons Lowe, CEO of Survation, one of the UK’s most influential market research firms.&n…

Could Labour’s hope for the future be gaining tactical votes from Green & LibDem supporters? 👀

Polling guru @damiansurvation.bsky.social breaks down this strategic dilemma in the latest episode of The Political Marketing Podcast.

politicaladvertising.co.uk/2025/07/19/p...

In this context “fastest growth in the G7” claims look particularly silly - when you have 7 country’s statistics agencies with different methods being compared to each other on a *quarterly* basis.

Great post about the limitations of ONS data and why being governed by statistical noise is the current state of affairs!

Signs you are getting old #342. The homemade Father’s Day cards reach political satire level: