*BESSENT SUMMONED WALL STREET CEOS TO DISCUSS ANTHROPIC’S MYTHOS

*US ISSUES LICENSE TO ALLOW SOME RUSSIAN OIL SALES TO INDIA

*TRUMP SAYS HIS POTENTIAL CANDIDATES TO LEAD IRAN KILLED: ABC

I very much prefer the lens of “the market thinks these cuts are being delivered to contribute to an environment in which nominal growth is seen as sufficiently stabilizing if not accelerating” to explain the price action

That said there are very high quality data sets on employment that don't rely on random samples: state-level unemployment claims data is totally independent of the feds (though Dept of Labor aggregates it) plus payroll tax roles (those are federal).

I'm not technically an economist but as a financial markets professional I'm going to keep trusting them until there's evidence not to. That said, the odds that we will find evidence not to just went up significantly.

Soft final sales

Asking the OpenAI Whisper audio model to transcribe 30 seconds of silence generates the output "ترجمة نانسي قنقر", which is "translation by Nancy Qanqar".

Nancy Qanqar is a volunteer translator of (among other things) many pirated movies, so that invites an interesting conclusion on data sources.

friendly reminder Luke publishes interesting and though provoking research every day at sherwood.news (and is way underfollowed)

*TRUMP TARIFFS CAN STAY IN PLACE LONGER, US APPEALS COURT SAYS

*TRUMP’S GLOBAL TARIFFS BLOCKED BY US TRADE COURT

*SUPREME COURT SAYS AGENCY LEADER RULING DOESN'T APPLY TO FED

*SUPREME COURT BACKS TRUMP'S OUSTER OF AGENCY LEADERS FOR NOW

60d chart of the U.S. 10YR Treasury yield currently 4.5323%, relative to its 2/19 close of 4.5327%

10Y

Now that it’s over, I think we need to discuss how lame “May the 4th be with you” is

*WARREN BUFFETT TO STEP DOWN AS BERKSHIRE CEO AT YEAR-END

bitcoin acting more like gold than high beta nasdaq is a bad sign

Watched that. Remembered this.

*FED READY TO HELP STABILIZE MARKET, FED'S COLLINS SAYS: FT

*EURO SURGES AS MUCH AS 1.6% AMID BROAD DOLLAR WEAKNESS

4.48%

*SUPREME COURT SAYS US MUST SEEK RETURN OF WRONGLY DEPORTED MAN

*GOLDMAN SACHS RESCINDS RECESSION CALL AFTER TRUMP TARIFF PAUSE

Death going door to door. Death has trumps face badly pasted onto its head. The open doors are labelled stocks, commodities and treasuries. Donny Death is knocking on the door marked "dollar"

4.48%

Hatzius: We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%

Bessent's macro fund returns absolutely sucked shit (unlike, as a random example, Steve Mnuchin's successful turnaround of OneWest) and now everyone in the world is learning why

>26b shares traded across all US exchanges. The previous record of 23.67b shares made on 1/27/21 during GME mayhem

GS: >26b shares traded across all US exchanges. The previous record of 23.67b shares made on 1/27/21 during GME mayhem