Fuel duty revenues dropped in March to their lowest since July 2023.
Most interesting bit of the UK public finances data today:
Fuel duty revenues dropped in March to their lowest since July 2023.
Strongly suggests people were buying less petrol petrol last month.
Is it time to cut the cord?
Our latest substack from Jonathan Marshall and Matthew Cavanagh considers the Government's plans to 'de-link' gas and electricity prices ⤵️ buff.ly/4s3sowS
🚨 New Substack
The Government's plans to de-link gas and electricity prices represent an important step forwards, but as it stands the tax incentive needed to drive change may be too weak.
Read more 👉 buff.ly/4s3sowS
The Government has made important progress in its plan to ‘de-link’ gas and electricity prices, but needs to beef up its tax threat if it wants to make good on them
The @resolutionfoundation.org take on a big but underpowered announcement:
resolutionfoundation.substack.com/p/cutting-th...
Good to see removing the Carbon Price Support form part of this. Something @resolutionfoundation.org suggested way back in 2023
Advert for event on Monday 13 April 2026 from 9:30 am to 10:45 am
We're hosting events in April to unpack the effects of war in the Middle East on the UK economy.
The first will focus on the coming cost of living crunch, with Jeremy Hunt MP, @kellyipsosuk.bsky.social @dharavyas.bsky.social @jonnymarshall.bsky.social @ruthcurtice.bsky.social ⤵️
buff.ly/srukFo5
England's first Land Use Framework is finally here. It's been a long time coming and there's a lot to welcome. But when it comes do decarbonising land it leaves lots of the trickiest details - on how to not just inform land use decisions but shape them - to future work
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Winter isn't coming quite yet, but the government should start planning now for a possible spike in energy bills this winter.
In our latest susbtack, @jonnymarshall.bsky.social breaks down how the government should use the next few months to prepare a social tariff.
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The barrier here has always been data: linking income, tariff type and energy consumption in one place. This is tricky but not terminal, and the Government should use the time it has to make sure it is prepared for the worst
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
There is no shortage of options. We modelled removing policy costs, expanding the Warm Home Discount, boosting UC, and an EPG re-run.
None come close to a social tariff for getting help to those who need it most – and only a social tariff can account for the three criteria listed above
We've long argued that bill support should target lower incomes and scale with energy need. Fixed tariffs add a third requirement: any scheme needs to account for what deal households are actually on
Clearly bad news – but there is time to prepare. Four in ten households are on fixed deals and are well-shielded from price changes. The remainder won't feel any change until at least the summer
High and spiky gas prices mean April's fall in energy bills is likely to be short lived, with July's price cap expected to be hundreds of pounds higher
🚨New @resolutionfoundation.org note out today on how Government can be ready to protect households from the squeeze this winter 1/ www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
What a difference a week makes. It's almost as though our entire energy system is based on something fundamentally unstable
Speech had surprisingly little on global context. Truth is Iran has the potential to put government cost of living plans completely off track. UK exposed to disruption to LNG supplies from Qatar. Impact of gas price moves so far if sustained would be over £500 increase in energy price cap in July.
And the Government's discount expires in 2029. Unless extended, the remaining £55 gets added back to bills overnight – leaving ministers facing a difficult choice, potentially just ahead of a general election
Bills over 2026 are on track to be more than £200 lower in real terms than in 2024. But network and policy costs will add around £150 by 2029 – and while lower wholesale prices should offset most of that, energy markets are unpredictable
And shifting costs from billpayers to taxpayers benefits those on lower incomes most. Savings are worth twice as much for the poorest fifth as the richest fifth - with higher earners contributing more through the tax system
The fall is driven mainly by the Government moving policy costs off bills – cancelling ECO and funding 75% of the Renewables Obligation from taxation instead. The average saving from this is around £135, but one-in-four households will benefit by more than £200
Energy bills are finally starting to come down – the next price cap will be £117 (7%) lower than today's. Much-needed good news needed for millions of hard-pressed families🧵
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Tomorrow, Ofgem is expected to announce that the energy price cap for Q2 2026 will be nearly £120 lower than current levels.
This policy will deliver a boost to living standards from April and should help to keep bills below current levels until at least 2029.
Our analysis ➡️ buff.ly/zrvoZMp
The discount is only funded until 2029, leaving a cliff edge just ahead of a likely election. This means that extending (or expanding) bill support is likely – but it won’t be free. Government should settle the framework for how costs are split between bills and taxation sooner rather than later.
But bills are set to tick up over this decade. New costs for network infrastructure and policy costs are baked in, and the value of the Government’s discount will fall as the Renewables Obligation contracts it funds start to expire
By moving some costs from bills to the tax system, savings are worth twice as much to the poorest households as the richest – leaving households in the bottom nine income deciles as net beneficiaries on average.
💡 New @resolutionfoundation.org note on energy bills out over the weekend 💡
2026 energy bills are on track to be more than £200 lower, in real terms, than in 2024 – overwhelmingly driven by the Government’s discount kicking in this April.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Today's report isn't usual territory, but does show our commitment to evidence. It would be easy to write a report saying protect consumers at all costs. Great analysis by @zackleather.resolutionfoundation.org persuaded us that wasn't the right answer. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
🧵 New research on decarbonising UK farms and what it means for living standards.
The good news is decarbonisation should be manageable and won't cost the world - but it'll still be hard, as farming's in a fragile situation. Here's what we found 👇
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...