most hot take political podcasting and streaming is reactionary by design and necessity; if you’re trying to eke out a living with this stuff (and not just treating it as a hobby), the takes must flow, rain or shine, night or day, people aren’t paying for “i suppose we will have to wait and see”
probably the basic thing to understand is what matt darling explains here: economic fundamentals like unemployment and wages were in fact very good predictors of economic sentiment pre-2020. like you have to at least start there
besttrousers.substack.com/p/the-vibece...
Congratulations to the French people on your many new 79-space parking lots!
Unhinged. In the best way.
JUST IN: John Eastman, the conservative attorney who helped devise President Trump's last ditch strategy to overturn the 2020 presidential election, has officially been disbarred, per the California Supreme Court:
This has an audience of like two people. What is the intersection set of politics bluesky and YouTube romantasy shorts enjoyers?
The only Valhalla I need is Bookhalla!
Why do you think I left political science? We only are allowed to trust the math, but the data is shit. And what we call case studies these days are usually there to illustrate the simplistic statistical arguments!
(I am exaggerating a little, but less than I'd like.)
Useful thread. Just one person's opinion, and I'm not a security person and never had a desire to be, but I *did* study bureaucracy and feeder pipelines are a big deal. Yale Law School sounds like a bad one.
At least in development, it's Peace Corps, which entails low-level real-world experience.
I'm assuming there are orbital mechanics challenges or something, juat wondering if SciAm has anything more detailed.
Or microwave transmission, for that matter?
Are the technical hurdles for using laser power transmission just that large? (I understand the battery weight limit issue given the 14-on/off thing, but with a solar satellite...)
Trump has zero ground to gain with Evangelicals. They already heavily break for him, with the exception of Black churches (for obvious reasons). He has a lot of ground to lose among Latinos, on the other hand!
I agree that hybrid is annoying, especially because of applying out-of-region for jobs. But you are also being remarkably contrarian for someone without any numbers to back up their claims. Maybe take a chill pill and come back to bsky in a couple hours.
This is probably part of the story. Although there is more room for flex in that than there used to be, especially for people with ADA.
OK, but politically? He very, very much does not.
For those not in the know, the US Conference of Catholic Bishops is both a major policy-setting org, and the primary lobbying arm of the Catholic Chruch in the US. This is a big deal.
Yeah, but those articles were wrong.
1.) Pandemic did not change relationship with work. People started working more.
2.) Return to office mandates don't show up statistically. Telework rates are higher now than 2022.
Correct. It's the IRL version of the old West Wing episode about people just saving their tax checks rather than buying a TV. (There is some effect related to the reduced capital return on investment and Bezos's investment activities, but its very small.)
Me, teaching: "Why do you find this quote more convincing than the other one?"
Kids: "I dunno, its a longer paragraph?"
Me: "That's it? Damn, I must be hella convincing then. I can talk, and talk..."
Kids: *vigorous nodding*
Careful on the oversell, here, Will. It's not a good thing - I'm with you and Matt on that - but it's not clear the effect is permanent yet, either.
Its also not clear how people assign responsibility. Its often just to whoever is in power, *regardless* of policy.
Depends on who you tax, and their "marginal propensity to consume." Generally if you hike taxes on th wealthy you get less of a contractionary effect than taxing the less wealthy.
You'd get some "sterilization" of the inflation effect, but not a ton. And not much point if its a broader tax.
Like... Saudi Arabia buys F-35s. Why wouldn't the Chinese sell lower-end satellites to the Iranians?
I'm not sure why this is surprising?
All of that said, I think its worth noting that most recessions have more to do with financial and structural labor shocks. So I wouldn't oversell this line to the general public for the next crisis.
And yeah, as a Bsky (and progressive Dem) narrative that makes sense.
No argument there. We stan Okun in this household.
That's a reasonable take. I generally agree, but I also think the narrative from the Peterson Institute types is that we are always ovsershooting, and the more worrisome lesson is still the one from 2008, I think.
Although maybe people expect some pain and the political fallout matters more.
Ah yeah. Feeling a bit off today so missing things.
Hmm. OK, so a bit of both then.
Absent stimulus, sure. But with robust stimulus, and the shock being shorter and sharper than expected, you wouldn't.
Like, the lesson is we misunderstood the particulars of the 2020 shock and overcorrected a bit, in a single, idiosyncratic case.