Hello! I've been lurking on Bluesky for years but finally decided to make it official. Posts before this one are migrated from my X account, with varying levels of success.

Is Your Member of Congress Aligned With Trump? A record showing how frequently each member of the House and Senate voted in alignment with, or in opposition to, the president in 2025.

And dig into the data to see how your lawmaker voted in 2025 using the full interactive (by
@lukewines
and Lauren Kim) here: votehub.com/trump-score /8

Republicans in Congress voted in lockstep with Trump in 2025 Analyzing floor votes in the U.S. House and Senate, this project examines how often lawmakers voted with or against President Trump’s stated positions in 2025, what kinds of issues dominated floor…

Check out the full analysis here! 7/ votehub.com/2026/02/04/r...

High party unity has increasingly been a norm and a necessity this era of slim majorities and high polarization. But the cracks are already starting to show in 2026, as lawmakers navigate Trump's controversial foreign policies, government funding, and electoral pressures. 6/

On the other side of the aisle, the redder their district, the more likely Democrats were to vote with Trump. The median Democrat sided with him on just 10 percent of votes, but one (Cuellar) did so slightly more often than the most moderate Republican (Fitzpatrick) 5/

GOP alignment was similar in the House, where 182 of 219 Republicans backed Trump on every vote, as leadership worked overtime to keep intraparty squabbles (like on those tariff policies) off the floor. Every House vote in this study went Trump's way. 4/

The Senate agenda was dominated by nominations, but most GOP defections came on legislation. Of 53 non-nomination votes in this analysis, 39 responded to executive action, like 3 votes to rebuke Trump's tariff policies that drew enough GOP support to pass the Senate. 3/

In the Senate, all but 8 Republicans agreed with Trump 100% of the time. Paul, Murkowski, Collins, and McConnell broke most often from the President. Democrats were largely aligned against Trump, though Fetterman voted most often with him. 2/

Excited to carry on the Trump Score name with @VoteHub! I gathered Trump's positions on 282 floor votes in 2025 to calculate how often each member of Congress agreed with the president, and dug into what issues and dynamics have dominated floor action in Trump's second term. 🧵

@msquared517 In Pennsylvania, this was calculated as the total votes cast in the 3 Supreme Court retention elections, divided by 3. (2/2)

@msquared517 Hi Matt, thanks for reading! So that we could consistently compare turnout results to historical elections where complete turnout results by county are not available, turnout was calculated as the total votes for the ballot item(s) at the top of the ticket. (1/2)

Check it out here: votehub.com/2026/01/27/off-year-turn...
And thanks to @lukewines for helping bring these beautiful visuals to life!

In a new analysis for @VoteHub, @marywitha4 and I dug into county-level turnout in VA, PA, and NJ to explore off-year turnout trends, and how electorates changed after the 2016 election. (Spoiler: suburban voters love to vote.)

Things that were not on my bingo card today lol twitter.com/baseballot/status/195283...

Reunited with my first chart love, the Congress scatterplot! Excited to share that I've been contributing to the Hunter Index, a nonprofit covering politicians' finances. Check out my data viz for our new series: huntrjay.substack.com/p/exclusive-how-politici...

Along with the rest of my incredible colleagues at 538, I was laid off today.

Everyone on this team taught me so much, and made me a better writer, editor, and coworker every day. I can't believe it's only been a year and a half, but it's been a great one.

Do... Do Trump's employees have serial numbers? (Severance-coded) www.whitehouse.gov/remarks/2025/01/remarks-...

h/t @holly_fuong

With full attendance and Massie voting against him, Johnson can only afford 1 GOP present vote. 2+ present = no majority. 5+ would give Jeffries the majority. In comparison, McCarthy won in 2023 with 6 GOP present votes, Pelosi in 2021 with 3 Dems present, 2 Dems against.

In 538's latest, Mary Radcliffe and Cooper Burton took a deep dive into the polling, politics and pros and cons of some of the leading Harris VP candidates. Read the full story here! abcnews.go.com/538/8-potential-kamala-h...

Happy primary day, Pennsylvania! Polls close at 8pm Eastern, and the 538 election night live blog is up and running: abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/pennsyl...

This is certainly a new dynamic reflecting the majority's unprecedented fragility and how hardline conservatives may have overplayed their hand in this Congress. Read the full story here! abcnews.go.com/538/feels-government-shu...

We also heard a lot about Johnson relying on Democratic votes. That's not unprecedented (see Ryan, Boehner), but there WAS something unusual this year – it's the only annual funding bill in at least 25 years to violate the Hastert rule, with a majority of the majority opposing.

It's primary night in Ohio and Illinois (and more!) -- our live blog is in full swing with live results and analysis. abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/illinoi...

Were your student loans forgiven under the Biden administration? @MonicaBPotts is looking for folks to interview for a story. Drop your info here: abcnews.go.com/538/student-loans-forgiv...

Nikki Haley's campaign exposed cracks in Trump's GOP ... but could also help keep the party together.
@meredithconroy_
tackled this, and what Haley's run has to tell us about women in politics. abcnews.go.com/538/haleys-campaign-expo...

A month after New Hampshire, Trump is poised to take another step toward the nomination in South Carolina on Saturday. @geoffreyvs's race preview digs into why Haley's home state looks like it's Trump's to lose.
https://t.co/vuKYUXfyo6

We rounded up recent polls on the news of the week to see what Americans think about extreme weather, Israel aid, the congressional border deal, the Super Bowl and Valentine's Day. Check out the latest #pollapalooza here: abcnews.go.com/538/americans-climate-ch...

We took a look at the latest Senate (and presidential) campaign finance reports to see who's doing well, who's struggling and who might not be running at all. Check out the latest 538 politics chat here! abcnews.go.com/538/senate-candidates-wi...

Check out the full story (and data) from me and Cooper Burton here! https://trib.al/wItoTkM 6/6

On the chamber’s 30-odd non-nomination votes, some endangered (or retiring, in Manchin’s case) Democrats used Congressional Review Act votes to burnish their moderate credentials and go on record against the president’s policies in largely symbolic votes. 5/