With a sprinkle of panic ✨

a purple background with the words the final countdown below it ALT: a purple background with the words the final countdown below it

Tenure docs due mid-August. Very much feeling like…

Which cafe?

I definitely needed these translations. If anyone has a broader stats/ML/AI terminology translation guide — I’d find it very useful 😅

Hoping to change this, so I’ll be looking to bring on a PhD student in Fall 2027 (application due Nov 2026) to focus on analytics exclusively for women’s professional 🏀 using women’s data.

In the meantime, we’ve got a little working group going that’s laying the foundation + lots of games to go!

Toronto has a new WNBA team & I’m beyond excited. Season tickets excited!

Over the past few months a group of us have collaborated with students & the data analyst at the tempo to look at the state of analytics for women’s basketball. It’s pretty bare 😥

Abstract submission deadline getting closer (May 1, anywhere on Earth). Excited by all of the submissions received thus far, and excited to learn about all of the amazing research being done in statistical ecology.

Look forward to seeing you all in Mérida, México!

cover of the book "Bayesian Workflow" by Gelman, Vehtari, et al. Coming out later this year, in the summer probably.

I would have preferred to have the "draw the rest of the owl" meme on the cover, but this will do. Seems like it is on schedule, and we'll leave some typos so you know we didn't write it with AI.

New pre-print! I cover a range of open capture-recapture models (single survey/robust design, multistate/multievent, in (Cormack-)Jolly-Seber variants) in Stan, and provide efficient log likelihood functions. I also introduce a method to account for unequal survey intervals in the entry process.

Looking for a postdoc to teach and develop Bayesian methods
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/31/l...

I'm looking for a post-doc to help organize Bayesian Data Analysis course avehtari.github.io/BDA_course_A... (200 students) and to do research on Bayesian workflow users.aalto.fi/~ave/publica... at Aalto www.aalto.fi/en, Finland. Background in Bayes needed. Up to five year contract possible.

Statistical Rethinking 2026 is done: 20 new lectures emphasizing logical and critical statistical workflow, from basics of probability theory to causal inference to reliable computation to sensitivity. It's all free, made just for you. Lecture list and links: github.com/rmcelreath/s...

Nutpie: state-of-the-art mass matrix adaptation for HMC
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/20/n...

I mean, just look at this cutie! Almost as cute as a cat.

A must if you’re presenting HMMs for animal movement, the HMM for wild haggis movement by @rolandlangrock.bsky.social @theomichelot.bsky.social cran.r-project.org/web/packages...

Detecting Stellar Flares in Photometric Data Using Hidden Markov Models Detecting Stellar Flares in Photometric Data Using Hidden Markov Models, Esquivel, J. Arturo, Shen, Yunyi, Leos-Barajas, Vianey, Eadie, Gwendolyn, Speagle, Joshua S., Craiu, Radu V, Medina, Amber, Davenport, James R. A.

I guess also a difference of how you use it! For prediction of states, or modeling the data well.

We’re also doing HMMs for stellar flare detection in astronomy, hoping to get better estimates of the start/end flares and also how much energy is produced: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3...

Out of date now too, but (hierarchical) HMMs for speech recognition was fun to learn about.

My first shark paper — there were observed white shark prey attempts (they jump out of the water!), and we could analyze how they use different movement strategies for hunting.

Off the top of my head (while on ✈️), there’s some old papers on using HMMs to recognize Tai Chi movements I always found cool.

Polar bears + differentiating between movement/behavior patterns & sea ice drift! @marieaugermethe.bsky.social besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirec...

I might have to change my research to AI so I can work with cat images all day

Best talk of the day, super unbiased of course. #CatLady

Vicente Ordóñez from Rice University

Reminds me of parallel tempering. #BayesLife

Day 2 so far — the Canadians are here!

Vincent Mai from LawZero talking about reinforcement learning.

David Fleet from UofT talking to us about computer vision.

Ca y est ! Le PDF et le eBook sont disponibles GRATUITEMENT 🥳😍 www.quae.com/produit/1988... Editions Quae

Long first day but it’s interesting being at an AI conference, my first!

Talk highlight — Decoding Sperm Whale Communication by Orr Paradise.

And of course the presentation on BRUVs for the hackathon!

My first time at SALA, summit of AI in Latin America. So much AI, so much español 🙌🏽

Excited to help with the hackathon today with Cesar Peñaherrera Palma and Jean López from MigraMar www.migramar.org/en/index

Once in a while I take my group out to dinners or lunch. As an appreciation of them and a chance to hang together. We’ve got 🇲🇽🇦🇷🇧🇷🇨🇦🇲🇺 covered!

All Bayesian, except for the postdoc that’s gone rogue and only does AI for ecological monitoring. 🐟

Call for abstracts is now open for the next International Statistical Ecology Conference (ISEC) taking place on January 8-15, 2027, in Mérida, México!

Abstract submission form can be accessed through the website: statisticalecology.org

Deadline: May 1, 2026 (anywhere on earth)

🦋🇲🇽📉👩🏽‍💻

Book cover for https://oliviergimenez.github.io/banana-book/

📘 New book out soon !

I’m excited to share that 𝐁𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞-𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐇𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐞𝐧 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐨𝐯 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬: 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐑 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐍𝐈𝐌𝐁𝐋𝐄 is being published by Chapman & Hall / CRC Press

Hope it’s useful to students, researchers, and practitioners

#StatisticalEcology #NIMBLE

Nearly 15 years ago, I discovered @isec-stats-ecol.bsky.social as a first year PhD student and knew it was my dream conference/community.

Haven’t missed one since & now I get to bring it to México. Que padre unir mi comunidad académica y mi gente 🇲🇽 🌎

bsky.app/profile/isec...

BTW, ISEC 2027 call for abstracts now open: statisticalecology.org