Peace in the Philippines: The Bangsamoro’s Moment of Truth | International Crisis Group The peace process in the Bangsamoro, the newly autonomous Muslim-majority region in the southern Philippines, has run into stumbling blocks, including repeated postponements of regional parliamentary ...

Fore more details and background, check out our report:

www.crisisgroup.org/rpt/asia-pac...

With less than 3 years left, the Marcos admin must act fast to steady the Bangsamoro peace process.

For now, the odds favour an uneasy, imperfect peace over a return to war.

But absent urgent action, the tenuous calm in the Bangsamoro risks giving way to renewed instability.

To prevent further setbacks, the two parties should deepen dialogue and reach consensus on how to finish disarming former rebels and rehabilitating their communities, while the ex-rebel movement should strive to bridge internal differences so as to ward off the threat of a split.

Important provisions of the 2014 accord related to disarmament and socio-economic development remain unfulfilled, straining relations with Manila.

Moreover, following the change in the transitional authority’s leadership, the MILF has been struggling to maintain cohesion.

While peace in the region has largely held, the process faces major challenges.

At the helm of a transitional administration since 2019, the former MILF insurgents delivered modest peace dividends, but they continue to grapple with political instability and flare-ups of violence.

After being delayed several times, parliamentary polls may finally take place in the newly created Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in 2026.

The polls will complete the political track foreseen by the agreement signed in 2014 by the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

The peace process in the Bangsamoro, in the southern Philippines, is at a critical stage.

Our report draws on field research in Maguindanao, Lanao, Sulu, Davao, Zamboanga and Manila, conducted between June 2023 and February 2026.

It presents the current state of play in the southern Philippines.

lareviewofbooks.org/article/the-...

More challenges ahead in the Bangsamoro peace process as the Chairman of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, and presumably the Central Committee, question the redistricting bill a few days ago.

The military regime that seized power in 2021, driving Myanmar into all-out civil war, has gained the upper hand after a period in which rebels looked ascendant. But the war is far from over. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...

A reality by March 2026? (2) COTABATO CITY—Here in the heartland of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region, several civil society friends and colleagues have asked questions on the confusing statements issued by the national

opinion.inquirer.net/188798/a-rea...

"We are seeing that some sectors in the regional government, especially the appointed ones, are setting their sights on an extended term until the next presidential election in 2028."

Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...

“Trump had his own agenda, it was not the same agenda as the opposition leadership. So for many people this is going to mean a great deal of heart searching. They're going to have to acknowledge that Trump really is not working for them, he's working for himself.”
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...

‘Everything is silent’: Caracas on edge in aftermath of US blitz Some suspected the attacks on Venezuela were coming, but the shock was still real and no one knows what will happen next

🇻🇪 “From what I’m seeing so far…this was an operation to remove Maduro from power – but it’s not regime change. The regime remains in power.”

@philgunson.bsky.social speaks to @theguardian.com on today’s unfolding events in Venezuela.

www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

Indonesia Launches First Domestically Built Arrowhead 140–Based Frigate - Naval News On 18 December, Indonesia named and launched its first domestically built Merah Putih (Red White)-class frigate, KRI Balaputradewa (322).

On 18 December, Indonesia named and launched its first domestically built Merah Putih-class frigate, KRI Balaputradewa (322). This marked a major milestone in the country’s naval modernisation and defence-industrial development 🇮🇩
By @fmalufti.bsky.social
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

PH military press statement interestingly said they only monitored 50 local fighters.

Great aspirations? Examining Russia’s role in Southeast Asia A new book examines Russia's decade-long engagement with the region and finds more rhetoric than real influence.

“A new book examines Russia's decade-long engagement with the region and finds more rhetoric than real influence” Read Georgi Engelbrecht in The Interpreter.
www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/great-as...

Sharing a short discussion paper in this monograph released by UP CIDS on navigating multiple contesting land claims under a peace deal. Nothing new for communities confronting these painful questions for decades, but one of the many difficult conversations needed. Download: lnkd.in/gQu5yhqR

Through the Tempest: The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters | International Crisis Group

✍️NEW OP-ED | The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters

To navigate today’s turbulent geopolitics, the country must speed up defense upgrades with greater resolve and redouble its diplomatic efforts, writes @duriandiaries.bsky.social.

www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

Looks like Pynchon is having a moment. #pynchon #lot49 #iykyk

Through the Tempest: The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters Domestic challenges threaten to derail the military’s efforts to upgrade its capabilities and reorient itself toward new strategic priorities.

thediplomat.com/2025/11/thro...

U.S. Unveils Philippine Task Force to Deter Chinese Coercion - USNI News This post has been updated with a statement from U.S. Pacific Fleet. American and Philippine defense secretaries unveiled a task force designed to deter Chinese coercion in the South China Sea and enh...

news.usni.org/2025/10/31/u...

"While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."

Bangsamoro's regional government statement on the peace agreement signed 13 years ago.

🎊 30 years ago, @crisisgroup.org was born from the international community’s failure to prevent war in Bosnia.

Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president.

Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.

US, China to roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea The United States and China on Tuesday will begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world's two largest economies.

US and China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea – Reuters: ‘China said it had started to collect the special charges on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels but clarified that Chinese-built ships would be exempted from the levies.’

Today would have been Bangsamoro's first parliamentary election.

The polls, however, have been postponed.

I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist:

open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...

Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort YouTube video by International Crisis Group

Watch the recording from the discussion about #Philippines #defence Modernisation & 🇵🇭 -🇺🇸 #alliance

www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...

www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/...

ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort

25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC

Registration:

us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort

25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC

w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social.

Registration ⬇️

us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

A good thread for anyone interested in Philippine geopolitics.

Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group As they watch Beijing become more assertive in the South China Sea, Philippine leaders are adapting the country’s external defences while tending to partnerships with the U.S. and others. To manage th...

9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation:

www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...