I'm convinced AI is our generation's radium - a discovery with genuinely useful applications in specific, controlled circumstances that we stupidly put in everything from kid's toys to toothpaste until we realised the harm far too late where future generations will ask if we were out of our minds.
i have just gotten off a productive call with sauron where i laid out our requests
- nazgul bodycams
- morgul knife must remain sheathed unless suspect is determined to be carrying the one ring
- shelob will be the new point of contact
Comparing registrations to published papers is essential to research integrity - and almost no one does it routinely because it's slow, messy, and time-demanding.
RegCheck was built to help make this process easier.
Today, we launch RegCheck V2.
🧵
regcheck.app
It's also very handy with a 12 year old boy at home
In Swedish, there's killgissning, which roughly translates to 'dude guessing'
Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities Abstract Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models).
Figure illustrating model predictions. On the X-axis the predictor, annual gross income in Euro. On the Y-axis the outcome, predicted life satisfaction. A solid line marks the curve of predictions on which individual data points are marked as model-implied outcomes at incomes of interest. Comparing two such predictions gives us a comparison. We can also fit a tangent to the line of predictions, which illustrates the slope at any given point of the curve.
A figure illustrating various ways to include age as a predictor in a model. On the x-axis age (predictor), on the y-axis the outcome (model-implied importance of friends, including confidence intervals). Illustrated are 1. age as a categorical predictor, resultings in the predictions bouncing around a lot with wide confidence intervals 2. age as a linear predictor, which forces a straight line through the data points that has a very tight confidence band and 3. age splines, which lies somewhere in between as it smoothly follows the data but has more uncertainty than the straight line.
Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life?
Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...
I mean, beside the environmental, ethical, and intellectual issues, obvs
Of all of the ills brought on by genAI, the co-opting of the em-dash may be one of the worst
A new take on the limitations of "psychometric networks" now out in Nature Human Behavior. You don't want to put too much confidence in individual edges. Something we cautioned against in 2017.
1/2
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Slide: There are no shortcuts--'ugly social realities' Fear of being left out a fabricated & marketing public relations rhetoric Evidence, rigorous testing and evaluation AI in education = commercialization of a collective responsibility Outsourcing a social, civic, and democratic process of cultivating the coming generation to commercial and capitalist enterprise whose priority is profit
Mic drop from @abeba.bsky.social at UNESCO Digital Learning Week
Exploring Pre-service Teachers' Generative AI Readiness and Behavioral Intentions: A Pilot Study: https://osf.io/3aygt
Bayes is using a JASP magic wand to conjure a white rabbit out of a top hat. Artwork by Viktor Beekman (instagram.com/viktordepictor), concept by Eric-Jan Wagenmakers (@ejwagenmakers.bsky.social). Available under a CC-BY license here: https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/artwork-library/
This summer: A week of hybrid workshops. 🛠️☀️
jasp-stats.org/workshops/
Discovering Statistics using JASP
Bayesian Hypothesis Testing with JASP
Machine Learning with JASP
State-of-the-Art Meta-Analysis with JASP
ECs for students available.
I wanted to highlight key findings from our study and the replication, and how they extend to 2024.
Now it provides a systematic review of more than 600 scientific studies on the relationship between digitalization and democracy.
So what does science have to say? We actually know quite a bit: 1/5
Looking for a post-doc? Apply for the Western Postdoctoral Fellowship Program at Western University @westernu.bsky.social in Canada🇨🇦. Comes with a competitive salary and a research stipend: www.uwo.ca/research/fun...
A collage where the top photo has Trump smiling glbly in the Oval Office while Musk stands nearby in a t-shirt, baseball cap, and black coat, and where the bottom photo has Trump in the Oval Office pointing angrily at Zelensky, who is wearing a black, high-collar shirt with official Ukrainian insignia.
It's hard not to see the hypocrisy of his attacks on Zelensky's choice of clothes.
If "60 hours a week is the sweet spot of productivity," that's only because the tech workers who can put in all those hours at the office have offloaded all their caregiving responsibilities onto others more vulnerable than them.
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/27/t...
POV: You're 16, believe being in advanced placement math class means you're a once in a generation genius, and have just discovered Reddit.
I think we're seeing what happens when one side builds a coalition around collective outrage, and the other side mistakes the appeal of collective outrage for the appeal of particular policies.
And people talk about how Koreans "showed up for their country" but like. Why do you think they showed up where they showed and when they showed up? The opposition party was literally sending SMS alerts and mass-printing glossy color cardstock signs for their voters
Scientists! Can you share examples of society-run, open-access, non-profit journals that you know of? I'm thinking of this like AERA Open, Journal of Numerical Cognition, Frontline Learning Research
We are pleased to announce that the 5th Jean Piaget Conferences will take place from 25 to 27 June 2025 at the University of Geneva.
This year’s conference will be structured around three key axes: development, learning, and teaching.
Submissions : Feb 28th
confpiaget.sciencesconf.org
Kiitos Antti!
Thanks Nicole!
Scientists! Can you share examples of society-run, open-access, non-profit journals that you know of? I'm thinking of this like AERA Open, Journal of Numerical Cognition, Frontline Learning Research
I've got a meeting free day next week and I'm trying so hard to not book anything. Even the potential feels glorious already
Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines?
Jevin West (@jevinwest.bsky.social) and I have spent the last eight months developing the course on large language models (LLMs) that we think every college freshman needs to take.
thebullshitmachines.com
Signal Boost: All U.S. federal government websites are already archived by the End of Term Web Archive
Let people know, download your own copies.
Don't let this digital book burn continue.
#Feds #Health #WHO #CDC #AMA #USPHS #FDA #NIH #NCHS #PCORI
📣 Big news: Lifecycle Journal is now open for submissions! 📣
Lifecycle Journal is a new, innovative, community-driven approach to scholarly publishing, initiated by COS.
Learn more and submit: lifecyclejournal.org/
Hi, Vox reporter here: If you've had a study section, NIH travel, or other NIH-related meeting cancelled (or not), raise your hand! Reply or DM me, and repost for visibility if you're able.
#academicsky @drugmonkey.bsky.social