Prediction Markets: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO) YouTube video by LastWeekTonight

John Oliver’s prediction market episode, which dropped last night youtu.be/ZN4njIQcSR4?...

listen to the end to see how we wish @marychilds.bsky.social goodbye (she’s leaving NPR, it’s very tragic)

I did an episode of Planet Money w the inimitable @marychilds.bsky.social on the crazy world of prediction market mania. We bet on a Trump speech, talk to Kalshi’s CEO, a former regulator & wonder abt perverse incentives & warping reality etc etc Give it a listen!! open.spotify.com/episode/7jE6...

Today the House Committee on Agriculture held a hearing with the top regulator over markets like “Justin Bieber streams up this week?” and “Will Trump say ‘Sleepy Joe’ at Turning Point USA this week?”

And while four big trades were made in the final hours of Biden’s term, this same trader had a large position that Hunter Biden would be pardoned well before the market odds reflected that as a likelihood, suggesting the trader had some kind of access to Biden WH pardon decisions.

But given a number of factors – obfuscated wallet activity, an overseas prediction market exchange, the difficulty of proving who did what when – a federal prosecution would likely be challenging.

Columbia Law School’s Josh Mitts, who advises the DOJ on insider trading cases, told me the odds of the Biden pardon trades happening by random chance are virtually zero.

It’s the first public instance of suspected Polymarket insider trading during the Biden administration, when there was far less scrutiny on how world events could lead to misbegotten gains on prediction markets. Now, that seems to be a normal part of every big news cycle.

The trader had a perfect betting record. The two accounts took the Polymarket profits and sent them to the same deposit wallet, which tipped off Bubblemaps’ forensic investigators that the accounts were linked.

The crypto sleuths over at Paris-based Bubblemaps pieced together the puzzle: Two accounts were placing large trades on who Biden would pardon in his final hours in office.

A Polymarket trader made $300,000 betting on Biden's pardons, a new analysis shows In the final hours of President Biden's term, an anonymous prediction market trader placed lucrative bets on who would be pardoned even as the odds were nearly zero.

NEW: A Polymarket trader made $300,000 with suspiciously well-timed bets on Biden’s last-minute pardons www.npr.org/2026/04/16/n...

I went on NPR’s It’s Been a Minute to talk all things prediction markets, where the futures betting mania came from, how it’s changing us and where it’s all heading open.spotify.com/episode/0sBE...

Trump administration sues three states over attempts to regulate prediction markets The suits are the most ambitious effort to date that the Trump administration has gone to try to override state laws and set the rules for the fast-growing and increasingly divisive betting industry.

"This is not just telling the court what their views are, but trying to put a thumb on the scale for prediction markets," said Todd Phillips, a Georgia State University professor who focuses on financial regulation.

www.npr.org/2026/04/02/n...

Sam Bankman-Fried’s helicopter parents crash into federal court SBF praises Trump from prison, his parents beg for a pardon on CNN, and his legal ethics professor mother files court documents claiming to be from him — prompting a judge to demand he swear under oat...

As they angle for a presidential pardon in television interviews, Sam Bankman-Fried’s law professor parents file “pro se” motions for their adult son, leave voicemails with the judge, and sign documents claiming they're from him in prison.

Two Verdicts Find Fault With Social Media Giants | The Brian Lehrer Show | WNYC Juries in both New Mexico and California found social media giants to be liable for harm to children.

Juries in both New Mexico and California found social media giants to be liable for harm to children. Today on the show, NPR technology correspondent @bobbyallyn.bsky.social explained both cases and their potential consequences. www.wnyc.org/story/two-ve...

One of the jurors, who gave her name as Victoria, addressed reporters in the courtroom hallway after the verdict standing next to the jury foreman, Matthew.

Victoria said: “we wanted them to feel it, we wanted them to know this was unacceptable.”

NEW: The jury has just come back with punitive damages following their verdict against Meta and YouTube, awarding plaintiff KGM $3 million for designing social media platforms negligently, bringing total damages to KGM to $6 million.

The punitive stage of the trial is underway. Plaintiff lawyer Mark Lanier showed the jury a jar of hundreds of M&Ms, saying each one represents a billion dollars to illustrate just how rich the tech companies are.

“So what you gonna fine them for this?” he asks jury.

Jury holds Meta and Google liable for role in young woman's mental health issues The verdict marks the end of the first-ever jury trial over whether tech giants should be held accountable for social media addiction. It may influence the outcome of 2,000 other pending lawsuits.

www.npr.org/2026/03/25/n...

Meta on the hook for 70% and Google will pay 30%, jury found.

They also found the companies should pay punitive damages, which will be determined in a separate phase of the trial happening after verdict wraps.

NEW: After eight days of deliberations, jury in Los Angeles social media trial finds Meta and Google are liable for contributing to the mental health issues of plaintiff KGM through the defective design of its social media platforms, awarding her $3 million in damages.

Meta Loses Insurance for Defense in Major Social Media Addiction Litigation A Delaware judge has ruled insurers do not have a duty to defend Meta Platforms in the thousands of lawsuits that allege its Facebook and Instagram

after $375M verdict today in New Mexico, another jury verdict expected this week in LA, and 2,000 other consolidated cases pending against Meta, this is potentially a really big deal www.insurancejournal.com/magazines/ma...

woe to all the news analysis writers who would’ve written big step-back pieces on “the day juries from NM to LA delivered resounding verdicts in cases against the titans of silicon valley”

Tomorrow is day 9 of jury deliberations at LA social media addiction trial.

“I’m not very worried about a mistrial or a deadlock,” said plaintiff lawyer Mark Lanier, saying it’s a “careful” jury dealing with a very complicated set of verdict sheet questions.

No verdict today. “There’s a good chance tomorrow we get a verdict,” said plaintiff lawyer Mark Lanier.

At social media addiction trial, after seven days of deliberating, the jury says they are having difficulty coming to a consensus on one defendant, and they ask how to move forward. The judge read them instructions to keep deliberating.

Plaintiff lawyer Mark Lanier says after court that a jury question today about damages *does seem to suggest* that the jury has reached a verdict about liability, or they would not have moved on to the question of damages. But of course we don’t know till we know.

no verdict again! after six days of deliberating. jury is back on Monday!