Happy Patriot’s Day to all who celebrate!

@NYTimes Are you sure my crossword is supposed to max out at 136 across and 128 down in the grid, and only 119 across and 111 down in the clues? Either really interesting/challenging or should be the front page headline.

First father-son duo to be swept?

Agencies in talks with Trump, family to resolve $10B lawsuit over tax leaks President Trump and his family are suing federal agencies over leaks of their tax information. Court filings say they’re in talks to find a solution instead of heading to trial.

that beep beep beep sound you hear is the president and his family backing a truck up to the US treasury...

www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Also nice discussion by @johnfernald.bsky.social shortly before Mark speaks (after @laura-veldkamp.bsky.social and before Dimitris Papanikolaou, roughly 3:15 mark)

41st Annual Conference on Macroeconomics, 2026 YouTube video by NBER

A really nice in memory of John Leahy by Mark Gertler at NBER Macro, at the 4:17 mark here m.youtube.com/watch?v=HkTD...

Seems this moved or something . . .
economics.mit.edu/people/facul...

economics.mit.edu/people/facul...

Nice in memoriam. First memory: dinner with Chris in New Haven (when I was on the market) and I spent dinner critically questioning him about his BPEA & NBERMA papers and it was one of the best "what are we doing in macro" conversations I have ever had.
mailing.econometricsociety.org/t/r-l-tulkil...

UM Chinese researcher dies after alleged questioning by feds China is calling on the U.S. to probe death of researcher after he was subjected to what they called 'hostile questioning' by federal authorities.

NEW: University of Michigan Chinese researcher dies after allegedly "hostile questioning" by federal agents

www.detroitnews.com/story/news/l...

Jamie Dimon's Letter to Shareholders, Annual Report 2025 | JPMorganChase

Jamie Dimon's annual letter closes about the U.S. He criticizes U.S. policy uncertainty and pushes for doubling EITC, free trade (and fair), only limited and market-based industrial policy. Ends quoting the Constitution and "we need to be stronger."

www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-re...

Very good thinking and advice here, written for econ graduate students in econometrics, but much more broadly applicable . . . .
economics.mit.edu/sites/defaul...

NYT didn’t try to sanewash this which is good I guess?

www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04...

trump stop threatening war crimes challenge 2026 (impossible, apparently)

There are now 10 toilets in Space

International Space Station: 4
Crew Dragon Docked at ISS: 1
Soyuz Docked at ISS: 1
Tiangong Space Station: 2
Shenzhou Docked at TSS: 1
Artemis II on way around Moon: 1

This will be the first time a toilet has left low earth orbit!

I keep seeing "all authors use AI, the real issue is they're being forced to be sneaky about it" headlines.

Full stop No. This is a lie peddled for normalization. It's schoolyard-level pressure tactics "C'mon, all the cool kids are already doing it. We won't tell. It's fine. We're on your side."

To get more people housed, you need more housing.

The simple solution is to get rid of all Federal regulation and permitting restricting building within the roughly 20% of U.S. land that lies within municipalities.And deny Federal funds to cities that do not permit new building (these cities can tax housing to make up the lost funds).

Opinion | Democrats Need a New Promise: A House by 30

This is a nice exercise in how to mislead with statistics, and proposed a foolish demand-side policy. I like that it addresses how to pay for it, but with a need to fund or cut 25% is Soc Soc in 5 years, it’s unrealistic.

Democrats Need a New Promise: A House by 30 www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/o...

Looks like we might find out whether there is any meat beyond the MMT tautology that a country that issues debt in its own currency never has to default . . .

The first change gives lottery teams no incentive not to win as other teams jockey for playoff position.
The second change means no one game sets lottery position.
The third means really bad tanking teams lose lottery odds, so teams will try not to be too bad.

Parker proposal: last 6 gms of the season do not count for draft/lottery; end-of-season dice roll sets how many of previous 6 count. Teams lose 1% lottery odds (10 #'s) per 1% record is below 30%. E.g. if in bottom 3 w/ 25% winning pctg, go from 14% chance to win lottery to 9%.

And here is what the interest costs of your $85,000 per person is doing (all this info is from the @CBO www.cbo.gov/publication/...

The Clinton Administration was a huge fiscally responsible outlier

The US Federal is 5.8% of GDP in 2026, and projected to increases to 6.7% in 2036 under current law (relative to 3.8% past avg).
Your share of Federal debt is $85,000 if shared equally, so $340,000 for a family of four.
Coming soon: default and depression, or higher taxes & lower benefits.

Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol. 40 No. 1 Winter 2026

One of the most important issues for the world over the coming century is population growth, and here is a widely accessible introduction to the issues: www.aeaweb.org/issues/836

Saddened by the passing of Chris Sims. When he spoke in seminars, I *always* learned something. And he was otherwise a normal person, talked about books, laughed, & treated junior faculty & grad students well. I miss and treasure the regular informal lunches with Princeton macro group in 2000’s.

This Goldman chart is not aging well

They must know some people. 🤡

@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...