Also: we like the moooooooon!!!

2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season First Look The rarest of weather phenomena may lie ahead this year: a calm hurricane season.

For more, including probabilistic seasonal U.S. hurricane landfall count forecasts and my latest thoughts on whether society will be destroyed by artificial intelligence or natural stupidity, read WeatherTiger's full 2026 Hurricane Season First Look here:

In terms of overall activity, the combination of a tepid Tropical/Eastern Atlantic and a burgeoning El Nino in the Pacific means that there is a 55% chance of 2026 falling in the least active third of hurricane seasons since 1950, and just a 10% chance of the most active third.

WeatherTiger’s first outlook for the 2026 hurricane season is here, and it's a refreshing break from the mostly active forecasts of the last decade.

Our landfall risk model projects net Accumulated Cyclone Energy near CONUS of 2.5-3 units, about 40% less than the 1900-2025 mean.

Serious numbercrunching going on at WeatherTiger World HQ today in preparation for the release of our initial outlook for the 2026 Hurricane Season!

Look for WeatherTiger's forecast to be out this Wednesday. It may even contain some rare good news for the year ahead for once...

The NHC post-analysis report for #HurricaneMelissa is out now.

Estimated maximum sustained winds were nudged upwards to 190 mph at #Melissa's peak, tying Hurricane Allen (1980) for the highest ever recorded in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico.

Dr. Ryan Truchelut (@weathertiger) After a brief reprieve, winter is back in Extreme Northern Florida, where temps will struggle into the 40s this afternoon ahead of a bitterly cold and breezy night with lows in the lower 20s. The Nati...

Winter is back in #ExtremeNorthernFlorida and it's going to stick around for awhile.

The latest on Florida's continued abnormal cold (and miniscule but non-zero chances of snow or ice) in today's forecast update:

While #Florida will not see snow/ice from this weekend's massive Winter Storm Xenawarriorprincess (name unofficial), a historic cold pattern follows.

#Tallahassee may see 8 or more freezes in a row beginning Tuesday. That's only happened 12 times since 1892, most recently in 2010. #FLwx

Saw the rarest of winter beasts on snowy I-10 this morning: three FL Dept. of Transportation snowplows. They do exist!

Click for a field report from "Operation Siberian Tiger:" a voyage into the savage, snowy heart of the tundras/caves of extreme northern #Florida:

www.facebook.com/weathertiger...

Snow falling in the western #Panhandle with rain/snow line roughly from Santa Rosa Beach to just west of Marianna as of 8am ET/7 CT.

Little hope of frozen precip in #Tallahassee so I'm chasing this one personally out to Marianna!

Dr. Ryan Truchelut (@weathertiger) Saturday Night Florida Snow Update: Rainfall is kicking up along the Gulf Coast tonight, as a combination of an Arctic front and weak Gulf low looks to probably change that cold rain over to a few ho...

Saturday Night Florida Snow Update:

Rainfall is kicking up along the Gulf Coast tonight, which will probably change over to a few hours of mixed rain/snow or wet snow Sunday morning in the NW #Florida Panhandle and south Georgia.

My latest here, back tomorrow morning with more:

Very cold morning in #Florida, with #Tallahassee dropping sub-20 for the 1st time since Dec. 2022 and rural upper 20s for south to Lake Okeechobee.

Still watching Sunday morning for a chance of light snow in the #Panhandle, followed by another deep freeze Monday morning. #FLwx

Florida Potential Winter Storm Update for January 15 Weighing the odds that the Panhandle ekes out a little snow on Sunday morning.

North #Florida, are you ready for the transcendent winter magic of 37-degree rain?

Is snow possible? It’s in the realm of the possible, but I wouldn’t count on it. Weighing the odds of another round of #Panhandle winter whimsy and how this possible #FLwx storm is very different than last year's:

That change in the models makes the weekend forecast worth watching, as a substantial minority of GFS and European ensemble members do have at least some flurries north of I-10.

I'll have an updated write-up about Florida's snow chances out tomorrow morning. #FLwx

Do you believe?

I'm still skeptical of North #Florida's weekend snow chances, but model guidance has trended much stronger over the last day with the "kicker" disturbance over the Plains that could wring out a little snow behind a front Sunday morning across the #Panhandle. 1/2

Fire and Ice: The WeatherTiger Newsletter for January 2026 A deep dive into Florida winter weather, past and present.

Now is the winter of our social media #content, as chatter ripples of southern winter storm threats.

Does the jet stream pattern ahead check the necessary boxes to square the circle and bring #Florida winter whimsy back in 2026?

My monthly off-season newsletter has much-needed historical context:

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS GRAY MATTER!

Matt is right on the money. This is a vindictive attack on public safety.

People are saying that Russ Vought's brain is a solid chunk of lead. Many people are saying this.

WeatherTiger's 2025 Hurricane Season Review We've got 67 problems, but the 2025 hurricane season wasn't one (on the Gulf Coast, anyway).

Find out why in my 2025 Atlantic hurricane season-in-review, out now. Pour yourself a tall glass of nutritious, delicious beef tallow and let’s take a look back on the dizzying highs and soporific lulls of a bizarre season that defied logic, convention, and, often, convection.

Hurricane season 2025 ends in less than a week.

The 2025 season has the distinction of having the lowest proportion of total Atlantic tropical activity (ACE) occurring near or over the continental U.S. of any year since 1950: a measly 0.2% versus a typical 4 to 5%.

WeatherTiger's Hurricane Melissa Update for October 28th Melissa ties the record for strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall, devastating Jamaica.

Wrapping up a brutal and singular day in Atlantic hurricane history, as #Melissa takes its place at the limits of the fury that a tropical cyclone can unleash.

Hoping for the best for Jamaica.

As I laid out yesterday, this is a cataclysmic wind, surge, and flood event for Jamaica. I will have an update this afternoon on how landfall played out, but for now, please keep Jamaica in your thoughts and prayers. They need them.

#Melissa is hours away from making landfall in west-central Jamaica and continues to intensify. Minimum pressure has dropped to 896 mb, which makes Melissa the 7th Atlantic hurricane on to breach 900 mb. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph, tied for 6th-strongest ever in the Atlantic.

WeatherTiger's Category 5 Hurricane Melissa Forecast for October 27th Melissa is on track to be the most severe hurricane landfall in Jamaica, and one of the worst anywhere in the Atlantic Basin on record.

#HurricaneMelissa will reach Jamaica tomorrow morning at or near Category 5 intensity.

Worst #hurricane strike on record incoming for Jamaica, major impacts expected in eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos, and Bermuda.

Full details for the Caribbean and beyond in today’s newsletter:

Hurricane Hunters confirming #Melissa is 2025's third Category 5 #hurricane, with sustained winds of 160 mph. Unfortunately, little weakening is expected before #HurricaneMelissa reaches #Jamaica tomorrow morning & #Cuba Wednesday.

New forecast discussion out later this morning.

WeatherTiger's Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast for October 23th Melissa, churning in the Caribbean, is a major hurricane threat to Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas, but continues to pose little risk to the continental U.S.

#TropicalStormMelissa poses a serious threat of major #hurricane impacts on Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas next week— but no risk to Florida.

We will be very fortunate if #Melissa does not cause a humanitarian disaster in the northern Caribbean islands.

My latest on this potentially intense storm:

With the NHC predicting #TropicalStormMelissa to become a major #hurricane next week, it looks to do so further east than most late season Cat 3+ storms.

The western/west-central Caribbean, where #Melissa will be, are most common locations for rapid intensification in late October or November.

Sour Melissa: The Hurricane Watch for October 21st Newly-formed Tropical Storm Melissa is a major threat to the western and central Caribbean, though there remains almost no risk for the continental U.S.

Newly-formed #TropicalStormMelissa is forecast to strength and meander into the weekend, and could become a major #hurricane.

However, despite long-term track uncertainty, Melissa is very, very unlikely be a U.S. threat.

My latest on #Melissa: