Low in the short run, ie one-two years in this case.

There is leverage if governments are willing to use it. Suspension of trade agreements. Refusal to allow the use of airspace. Offers of securing free passage in exchange for an agreement. Sanctions relief to Iran. But ... nothing.

There isn't enough focus on what European governments are doing to work with other powers to broker a compromise between the US, Israel and Iran. Where's the plan? Are we entirely out of it? Why? What should we do to be in it?

If the strait stays closed for 3m a global recession is pretty much nailed on. By my back of the envelope it will take 30-45 more days to completely exhaust buffer stocks and flex. Sometime before that we will start to see aggressive demand destruction.

So the US (and Israel) must commit to the Iranian regime staying in power in order to open the strait, but agreeing to that is an admission that their attempt at regime change failed. Mexican standoff dynamics - not positive-sum ones.

There's a fuzzy sense that a deal will be struck because a global crisis isn't in anyone's interests, including Iran's, but Iran wants to deter, and the strait is its means of doing so.

Concise and accurate

V interesting. As I keep saying, economic statistics really matter (& need funding). A state that doesn’t know what’s what (about itself and its oppos) is in trouble.

BBC snooker always has extremely dramatic music for the montages, which adds some Sturm und Drang to a polite and cerebral sport

Worth reading @samalvis.bsky.social, who's been advocating this very move
bsky.app/profile/sama...

Miliband to unveil move to delink UK gas and electricity prices Energy secretary’s push comes as Iran war threatens Labour pledge to cut heating bills

Miliband to unveil move to delink UK gas and electricity prices ft.trib.al/zI9c1JF

Energy shock 2.0: Lessons from 2022 for the Hormuz crisis If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, Europe will face as serious an energy crisis as it did in 2022. This time, energy poverty policies must be more targeted, and electrification more ambitious.

Another way of saying similar things here www.cer.eu/insights/ene...

The Harm from Hormuz Why we should still fear a global slump from Trump’s Iran debacle

Krugman's right that we should focus on quantities. 15-20% loss of oil and LNG supply implies a very large rise in prices *in the short run*, which we know from 2022 is a peak in year 1 before falling back in years 2 and 3.
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-harm-f...

Absolutely. He who dares wins, Rodney. I bet it's going to be a big success.

I'm sorry to hear this, Rebecca. Well done for reporting it.

Wowza! Congrats, this sounds exciting

Spat at, threatened and kidnapped: British Jews tell of rising antisemitism British Jews have described to BBC Panorama how they are experiencing a rise in antisemitism.

In 2025, there were 10 antisemitic acts a day reported to the Community Safety Trust.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

EE 2.2 Consious Uncoupling Breaking the link between gas and electricity is easier than you think

This is a good read by @samalvis.bsky.social, and this is basically what I think on the whole “decoupling gas and electricity prices” thing.

The first best answer is “build more renewables and flex”, and we’re making a lot of progress on that

Renewables are a structural hedge against fossil fuel shocks. In power markets, the more often wind, solar, hydro and nuclear cover demand, the fewer the hours in which gas sets the marginal price, and the weaker the link between global gas markets and domestic electricity costs.

Labour’s ‘crabwise’ approach to closer EU ties must address damage of Brexit | Heather Stewart The damage to the economy dwarfs the upsides from the various non-EU trade deals the UK has struck since 2016

Labour’s current painstakingly discussed “reset” in relations with the EU, along the lines prescribed in its manifesto, is likely to be worth less than 0.5% of GDP, according to @johnspringford.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social.

buff.ly/2BTv4RL

EE 2.2 Consious Uncoupling Breaking the link between gas and electricity is easier than you think

Rachel Reeves managed to wipe several million off SSE's share price on Thursday with a loose promise to decouple electricity and gas prices. Why? And what might she announce this week? 🧵1/6

electionenergy.substack.com/p/ee-22-cons...

Aggressive deportation tactics are popular in theory, but not when people see the consequences.

Early reports coming in of another arson attack on a Synagogue in Britain last night - this time Kenton United Synagogue.

This the third attempted firebombing of a Jewish building in London this week.

Reports of a third attempted arson attack on Jewish targets in North London this week. It's getting really scary and more people need to start taking it seriously.

Brussels pushes remote working to ease energy crisis European Commission also recommends heat pumps and public transport subsidies

All sensible, and in keeping with my and @elisabettaco.bsky.social's recommendations here www.cer.eu/insights/ene...

www.ft.com/content/bbc9...

If you want to feel particularly insignificant this morning, I took this (very quick and noisy) photo of galaxy NGC4205 last night. Every star here is relatively close, within our own galaxy... except the one marked with red lines. That's a supernova within NGC4205, 65 million light years away

They are the most delicious of feral urban fauna.

"what politicians need is not to escape, joyfully, the mental prison of the non-growing pie, but to acknowledge the bargains, trade-offs, foregone pleasures .... intrinsic to growing it again"
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....
me in this collection on Abundance edited by @carsjung.bsky.social

Losing it is certainly my biggest regret about Brexit. It's the EU's biggest contribution to liberty.

I meant more what it would unlock on the EU side.