Even if Irani retaliation to US-Israeli aggression temporarily pushes Riyadh & Abu Dhabi toward tactical convergence, it won't dissolve their deeper strategic rivalry in Sudan and the Red Sea.

Corridor Governance: How LAAF-RSF Cooperation Sharpens Gulf Competition in Libya and Sudan | ISPI Cross-border supply corridors linking Libya and Sudan have become the backbone of the RSF’s war endurance.

My latest for ISPI explores how LAAF-RSF cooperation is transforming logistics & border corridors' governance into geopolitical currency in the competition between Saudi Arabia & the UAE - playing out across the Horn, Sudan, Libya & Chad.

Seif al-Islam Gaddafi - Between Martyrdom and Myth - Emadeddin Badi Seif al-Islam Gaddafi’s killing has already been packaged as a national turning point: the removal of a “third option” for Libya, and to some, the end of a supposed last bridge out of Libya’s stagnati...

Rare for me to publish reflection pieces like this - but this one may resonate with those who’ve followed the arc of Seif al-Islam Gaddafi’s journey, and are grappling with the tangle of his legacy in Libya’s politics - & the tragedy of his killing.

emadbadi.com/seif-al-isla...

A thread unpacking recent #RSF weapons-supply dynamics in Sudan, & how a set of external shocks is now reshaping how the #UAE moves materiel to Hemedti's forces - from the Turko-Egyptian rapprochement and the Red Sea fallout to the evolving Saudi-Emirati rivalry.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/20108...

Collateral circuits: The impact of the Sudan's war on arms markets and mercenary networks in Chad and Libya The war in Sudan has transformed far more than its own frontlines. It has reshaped the security economies of its neighbours, activating new supply nodes and embedding weapons and combatants into cross...

#Libya #Chad #Sudan
@emadbadi.bsky.social

'In weakly governed borderlands, the market for #mercenary labour and the market for #weapons interact to entrench a regionalized economy of insecurity.. networks in which weapons, fighters, fuel and [ICT] move together'
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...

Collateral circuits: The impact of the Sudan's war on arms markets and mercenary networks in Chad and Libya The war in Sudan has transformed far more than its own frontlines. It has reshaped the security economies of its neighbours, activating new supply nodes and embedding weapons and combatants into cross...

Highly recommend this excellent new report by @emadbadi.bsky.social on the UAE's supply lines to the RSF via Libya and Chad to ayone interested in the regional conflict complex in which the war in Sudan is enmeshed, and in the networks serving UAE interests.
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...

Collateral circuits: The impact of the Sudan's war on arms markets and mercenary networks in Chad and Libya The war in Sudan has transformed far more than its own frontlines. It has reshaped the security economies of its neighbours, activating new supply nodes and embedding weapons and combatants into cross...

How did the UAE supply the RSF & sustain its war effort in Sudan for 2+ years? What dictated the reliance on Amdjarass, Kufra or other nodes?

More broadly, how did Sudan's war affect arms trafficking & mercenary networks in Chad & Libya?

My in-depth report:

globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...

Inside Gaza’s ‘death traps’ A US-backed scheme forces hungry Palestinians to trek kilometres for food aid. Many never make it back

Huge kudos to @data.ft.com for putting together this forensic mapping of the utter vileness of the Israel-US "Gaza Humanitarian Foundation"

Inside Gaza’s ‘death traps’ www.ft.com/content/6c74... via @data.ft.com

This long-form piece reflects on 5 years of Turkish involvement in Libya, tracing Ankara’s interventions at key political junctures - most recently downing a GNU-launched drone to halt its offensive.

It examines how Turkey is recalibrating its role - and to what end.

Still in the Game: Ankara’s Quiet Pivot in Libya - A View from Tripoli - Emadeddin Badi Tripoli, the evening of June 4, 2025. Around sundown, I stood on the corniche of Treeg al-Shat near the Waddan Hotel, watching as a convoy of armored pickups moved hastily toward the Radisson Blu “al-...

My latest, with a view from the ground in #Tripoli: Ankara’s quiet intervention to rein in the GNU reveals a deeper shift - from assertive influence to cautious containment - as #Turkey recalibrates its role in an increasingly unstable capital.

A Power Grab Backfires in Tripoli Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabeiba has set off a series of events destabilizing western Libya, but the structural forces behind the country’s wider stalemate remain strong

A failed power grab has eroded trust and deepened rivalries, leaving Tripoli in a state of suspended conflict primed for renewed violence, write @emadbadi.bsky.social and @wlacher.bsky.social‬ for @newlinesmag.bsky.social

A Power Grab Backfires in Tripoli Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabeiba has set off a series of events destabilizing western Libya, but the structural forces behind the country’s wider stalemate remain strong

'With trust eroded and rivalries deepened, #Tripoli is in a state of suspended conflict, primed for renewed violence.' @emadbadi.bsky.social @wlacher.bsky.social @newlinesmag.bsky.social #Libya

newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...

Excellent, must-read analysis of unfolding events in Libya by @emadbadi.bsky.social and @wlacher.bsky.social 👇

Excellent review and analysis of the recent fighting and shifting power dynamics in #Tripoli #Libya

@wlacher.bsky.social @emadbadi.bsky.social

A Power Grab Backfires in Tripoli Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabeiba has set off a series of events destabilizing western Libya, but the structural forces behind the country’s wider stalemate remain strong

New @newlinesmag.bsky.social piece with @emadbadi.bsky.social, in which we try to make sense of a dramatic set of events in Tripoli over the past two weeks and what they mean for Libya's political stalemate.
newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...

A Power Grab Backfires in Tripoli Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabeiba has set off a series of events destabilizing western Libya, but the structural forces behind the country’s wider stalemate remain strong

After a gambit by #Libya's Dabeiba to consolidate control in #Tripoli backfired, the capital has entered a state of suspended conflict - a tenuous standoff unlikely to hold.

In our latest @newlinesmag.bsky.social , @wlacher.bsky.social & I trace the breakdown, aftermath, & potential paths forward.

Haaretz’s Yaniv Kubovich reports that Israel plans to seize 75% of Gaza and relocate more than 1,3 million Palestinians in the upcoming offensive, ultimately forcing the entire population into three military zones with food supplies strictly controlled by GHF/Israel. www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...

Literally every experienced humanitarian or medical professional coming out of Gaza says:
„this is the worst I have seen, anywhere, anytime“

In Tripoli, A War on Militias Quickly Becomes a War of Militias A recent upsurge in violence in the Libyan capital portends a familiar and dangerous path for the war-torn country, and the urgent need for a political reset.

My latest for @mecouncil.bsky.social unpacks how a bid to rein in militias in #Tripoli unraveled into a war of militias, & what is now at stake.

International policy must now pivot from managing dysfunction to enabling transition before #Libya's history repeats itself.

Granular analysis of events unfolding in Tripoli, Libya.
recommend reading ⬇️

The Unraveling of "Stability" in Tripoli - Emadeddin Badi Over the past 24 hours, Tripoli has witnessed a rapid escalation in armed confrontations involving key factions aligned with the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Special Deterrence Force (SD...

Precious analysis of events in Tripoli over the past 24 hours, by @emadbadi.bsky.social
emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...

The Unraveling of "Stability" in Tripoli - Emadeddin Badi Over the past 24 hours, Tripoli has witnessed a rapid escalation in armed confrontations involving key factions aligned with the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Special Deterrence Force (SD...

For those following the latest developments in #Libya's #Tripoli, this analysis outlines what unfolded overnight, covering key military dynamics.

It closes with a call for more hands-on empowered mediation to prevent further bloodshed & build on the tenuous ceasefires.

emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...

Overnight, a Zawiyan coalition incl Mohamed Bahroun al-Far, Mohamed Sifaw, Othman Lhab, Busriba units, & Mahmoud Ben Rjab advanced toward Siyahiya, & may clash w/ Zintani forces.

Driven by fears of marginalization, the move aims to ease pressure on SDF & divide GNU's forces.

Later today, the 111 Brigade, Joint Force, & 444 Brigade are expected to regroup & launch a coordinated push to confine the SDF to its stronghold in Sug al-Jumaa.

A decision to militarily overtake Sug al-Jumaa - densely populated & symbolically significant - would be perilous.

Early this morning, the Special Deterrence Force (SDF) and Judicial Security launched a successful counteroffensive against disorganized GNU-aligned forces in southern Tripoli, deploying retrofitted commercial drones & drone-assisted targeting to hit key 444 Brigade positions

Tripoli may be on the cusp of being the theater for warfare unlike anything seen since 2011 - an urban battlefield marked by drone strikes, street-to-street clashes, & guerilla warfare.

The vast majority of casualties in this context will unfortunately be innocent civilians.

A Political Economy of Tripoli’s Abu Salim: The Rise of the Stability Support Apparatus as Hegemon Once a hotbed of pro-Qaddafi resistance, Abu Salim is now a stronghold dominated by Abdelghani al-Kikli (widely known as ‘Ghaniwa’) and his Stability Support Apparatus (SSA). Ghaniwa has consolidated ...

For an excellent analysis of Ghnewa's rise, see this @smallarmssurvey.bsky.social paper written under a pseudonym by
@emadbadi.bsky.social - Emad outed himself as the author last night.
www.smallarmssurvey.org/resource/pol...

And you know who is in no position to comment on these plans? The EU and its member states, who have been seeking to trap migrants in Libya for the past eight years.

Heartbroken at the passing of Pope Francis, a man who may not have been perfect but who consistently used his immense platform and his influence not only to say what was right in the face of political power, but also to model the behavior that brought those words to life. (1)

Excellent recap of the recent crisis in the Libyan economy

short, concise, and well done. Please give it a read