Good on Russia's apparent efforts to intercept Allied space communications. The recommendation for counter-space capabilities to defend these assets is worthy of further exploration. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
It all makes me reflect on today's proliferation of expertise (and the bias toward large-n studies) and the incentive structure that dissuades senior-level engagement with academia (or even deep reflection).
Jeff Michaels’ insightful article on the (very limited) impact of country experts in foreign policy. The Vietnam War is the focus here, but what is described seems applicable to other cases. Rather than a shortage of experts, the issue was a lack of consultation. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
A European theory of victory for Ukraine, driven by 5 conditions to compel a Russian change in strategy. Each has its own associated efforts and all are feasible if we actually want to see Ukraine survive and succeed. (Notably, it doesn’t need to be just a European strategy.) hcss.nl/report/a-eur...
RUSI has an excellent primer on Russia's commissioning of sabotage, surveillance and subversion across EU, often using disposable agents recruited for one-off jobs via social media. The challenges of attribution and follow-up are significant, but not insurmountable. www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
The Ukraine War has eroded past norms about not striking into Russia in case of war, but the demands of intra-war deterrence remain formidable - and require attention before rather than in the midst of crisis. Interesting treatment by Lukas Milevski. journals.lka.lt/journal/lasr...
While I am no fan of DoD’s new Irregular Warfare definition, this discussion of its recent IW Directive provides crucial context and raises the right questions. I do wonder about DoD’s ability to folllow through... open.spotify.com/episode/1VtO...
This thought-provoking piece challenges common presumptions about strategic depth—particularly as concerns the Baltics. Lukas Milevski argues an invading military would move far slower than presumed due to sparse infrastructure, difficult terrain and the effects of contestation. lnkd.in/eHpAUaTH
I’m looking forward to an opportunity to discuss the topic of my recent book (The Insurgent’s Dilemma) in the context of evolving counterterrorism.
Registration for this virtual event is open to all.
With the US military striking another alleged drug boat, can isolated hits effectively counter organized crime? My recent book (w/ Tom Marks) urges a strategic approach and lays out a framework for how to analyze the problem and craft a response. digitalcommons.ndu.edu/strategic-mo...
From 2023, but Cdr Spansvoll does a great job mapping out the informational, political and military LoE of Russia’s destabilization campaign vs Norway. The implication is very much that we need a campaign to counter a campaign—and that’s still v. relevant today.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Given events in Israel/Gaza, I revisited my Dec23 assessment of who might prevail. Two years on, my sense is "plus ça change, plus ça reste la même chose" but also that all now hinges on the political consolidation of the peace deal—arguably the hardest bit. irregularwarfare.org/articles/the...
Despite an abstruse style, this is insightful on the need to adapt tactical-level logistics toward a more distributed (and less targetable) “push” system. Obviously nature of adversary matters and the caution about unsustainability warrants further thought. thecxfile.substack.com/p/contested-...
Glad to see David Spencer‘s review of my book on the future of insurgency featured in RealClearDefense. He does a great job applying his own expertise to the argument I tried to advance. www.realcleardefense.com/2025/10/13/t...
Informative podcast with Samuel Bendett on tech adaptation in the Russia-Ukraine war. Covers integration of commercial technology, the role of volunteers and innovators in society, and the crucial need to adapt—and adapt again—to a constantly changing battlefield.
open.spotify.com/episode/3fG4...
Insightful analysis of Russia’s breaking point by Ben Connable. Despite a record of sacrifice and fatalism, history suggests key vulnerabilities that are also in play for Russia today. As Ben also notes, much will also depends on our own resolve. warontherocks.com/2024/09/russ...
SITREP from Colombia: tremendous economic potential, long tradition of democracy and yet struggling as always with security and governance beyond the big cities. On that front, matters have worsened since the FARC peace deal.
economist.com/the-americas...
Good to see Moldova taking proactive measures to counter Russian disinformation and agitation. www.euronews.com/2025/09/22/m...
Perhaps living in Brussels made me particularly interested in this Rest is History series on the invasion of Belgium in 1914. Educational and enthralling, this is also relevant to the war in Ukraine and the prospect of further conflict in Europe in years to come.
podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/t...
Austin Long provides important clarity on the Able Archer nuclear “non-crisis” of 1983. Held by some as a whisker away from Armageddon, the moment illustrates instead the need to understand both ourselves - the signals we send - and our enemy. strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/able-arche...
Drawing on his experience with FARC, David Spencer has penned a superb review of my book 'The Insurgent's Dilemma', exploring the innovations in insurgent strategy and response options that the book covers. Many thanks. digitalcommons.ndu.edu/cgi/viewcont...
@hurstpublishers.bsky.social
Podcast: @markgaleotti.bsky.social dissects how a seemingly mundane counter-gang arrest in a provincial Russian capital has escalated the fall-out between Moscow and Baku - and there may be more to come…
inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Second, we propose an analytical framework, designed for irregular warfare, to aid practitioners in their assessment of, and their response to, organized crime. Hopefully of use to practitioners, educators, and academics. An abbreviated “user’s guide” in Appendix A facilitates its rapid employment.
This book is based on the urgent need for a more effective response to organized crime. Its does two things. First, it applies an “irregular warfare” lens to the problem of organized crime, which helps situate the divergent criminal activity within its crucial political context.
NOW OUT: A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning, and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare, by David H. Ucko and Thomas A Marks (NDU Press).
Available in full at: ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/N...
Excellent discussion of Europe’s security and defence landscape with @edarnold.bsky.social, RUSI, via the great Modern War Institute at West Point podcast. Very relevant to #NATO. open.spotify.com/episode/7MSk...
يا للروعة
I’m now available in Arabic, thanks to the Saudi National Defense University. They have translated our “Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Action” (w/ Tom Marks, NDU Press)! I’m hopeful this will further extend the impact of this practioner’s toolkit.
