After a year of Trump, who are the winners and losers from US tariffs? The use of tariffs to try to rebalance trade has been a central plank of Trump 2.0 economic policy. But has it worked?

The use of tariffs to try to rebalance trade has been a central plank of Trump 2.0 economic policy. But has it worked?

After a year of Trump, who are the winners and losers from US tariffs? The use of tariffs to try to rebalance trade has been a central plank of Trump 2.0 economic policy. But has it worked?

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One year in, US tariffs have delivered higher costs at home, limited reshoring, and few clear winners. Strong politics, weak economics.

Read the evidence here:
theconversation.com/after-a-year...

#TradePolicy #Economics #Tariffs #EvidenceBasedPolicy @odi.global

Spillovers beyond trade policy: how AGOA's expiry threatens African women's livelihoods The latest issue of "This Week in Macroeconomics" assesses a pivotal trade moment: the expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and its profound, gendered macroeconomic spillovers acros...

What happens when a major trade deal supporting over 200,000 African women’s jobs expires?

In our latest #macroeconomics briefing, @prachiagarwal.bsky.social explores the fallout of the #AGOA expiry – it risks $1.1B loss in exports & a gendered economic shock across #Africa.

Read more & subscribe⤵️

How foreign direct investment shapes Africa’s role in global value chains Greenfield investment plays a critical role in Africa’s integration into global value chains, with inward investment in manufacturing boosting forward participation, while outward African investment in services enhances overall participation.

🆕 How foreign direct investment shapes Africa’s role in global value chains

Today on VoxDev, Prachi Agarwal (ODI Global) & Anirudh Shingal (SPJIMR) discuss the role of greenfield investment in Africa's integration into global value chains: https://ow.ly/ezIs50X60WH

“Pink tariffs” worse for women: are Trump’s new tariffs gender-biased? Trump's new tariffs disproportionately burden women, exacerbating existing "pink tariffs" on female goods. Analysis shows higher levies on women's apparel, risking job losses and financial strain, hig...

Women already face a #PinkTax on everyday goods due to existing tariff structures. Now, #TrumpTariffs threaten to exacerbate this inequality. In her latest analysis, @prachiagarwal.bsky.social reveals the hidden gender bias in trade policy. With a 90-day pause, is there time to act?

Read more⤵️

AfCFTA implementation challenges: towards an African continental textiles and apparel value chain Unlocking the transformative potential of AfCFTA for Africa’s textiles and apparel sector. This report reveals key challenges, strategic opportunities and actionable insights to build a continent-wide...

The #AfCFTA holds immense promise for transforming #Africa’s textiles & apparel sector into a powerhouse of industrial growth and regional integration. But what challenges stand in the way, and how can strategic investments, harmonised trade rules & collaboration unlock this potential?

Read more ⤵️

Vulnerability of low- and middle-income countries to the impacts of aid cuts and US tariff increases Aid cuts and rising US tariffs threaten low- and middle-income countries, with potential losses reaching 0.7% of global GDP. Low-income countries, fragile states and small island developing states fac...

Can vulnerable countries weather the storm of aid cuts and US #tariffs?

Our new report examines the impact on 119 countries and proposes solutions for building #resilience.

Key findings: loss of $39B in aid and $89B in exports, fragile states at high risk.

Read our analysis & proposed solutions⤵️

The Crisis for the Women Who Make Your Clothes Trump’s tariffs are having major ripple effects on the fashion industry’s female work force.

New in @foreignpolicy.com: With the #AGOA expiry, US tariffs put women garment workers at risk - real lives at stake.

Proud my @odi.global research on #pinktariffs informed this piece by @clairecozens.bsky.social. #Tradepolicy mustn’t deepen inequality.

Read here: foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/30/w...

How the UK-India trade deal shapes women’s economic empowerment The inclusion of a dedicated trade and gender chapter in the agreement is a momentous step towards greater participation and inclusion of women in trade, but it has missed some key considerations.

When leaders sign historic #trade deals, do they truly consider the women impacted on the ground? In my latest blog for ODI Global I review the hits and misses in the recently signed UK-India trade agreement (CETA) 🇬🇧 🇮🇳

Read here: odi.org/en/insights/...

#WomenInTrade #UKIndiaCETA #EconSky

🇳🇬Nigeria’s digital economy is booming, transforming how millions shop, bank & communicate. A national digital trade strategy is now crucial to coordinate efforts, build capacity and address regulatory barriers—paving the way for #Nigeria to become a digital trade leader in #Africa under the #AfCFTA.

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are gender-biased.

⛔️women earn less than men
💰US MFN tariffs on women’s clothing are higher
🛍️new US tariffs (weighted average) on women’s clothing are higher too

Women will now have to spend more than men on basic consumer goods in the US due to a #pinktax.

#econsky

What a fun read!

US trade fallout: Global financial risks persist and could spread further "This Week in Macroeconomics" – your weekly deep dive into key economic trends and their far-reaching impact on the global landscape. This week, Phyllis Papadavid tackles a significant global concern:...

What's shaping the global economy this week? Introducing 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐢𝐧 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐬, our new weekly briefing on key trends and their far-reaching impact.

Issue 1: The US trade fallout and its potential to trigger wider global financial risks.

Read more and subscribe on LinkedIn to stay ahead⤵️

US implements sweeping reciprocal tariffs, igniting global economic challenges Beyond the immediate concerns about the economic effects of these tariffs, the reciprocal measures are indicative of a broader trend towards a more isolationist US policy and a gradual detachment from...

ODI: Think change:US implements sweeping reciprocal tariffs, igniting global economic challenges @odi.global @odi-trade.bsky.social odi.org/en/insights/...

US implements sweeping reciprocal tariffs, igniting global economic challenges The global trade landscape just shifted dramatically. The US has implemented sweeping reciprocal tariffs, its biggest policy change since NAFTA, sparking global concern. This expert comment dissects t...

The US has enacted new reciprocal tariffs—the biggest shift since NAFTA. What does this mean for global trade? Developing nations face serious risks while economies adjust.

Will this reshape global cooperation or spark a new era?

Read insights by @max-mp.bsky.social & @prachiagarwal.bsky.social⤵️

US implements sweeping reciprocal tariffs, igniting global economic challenges The global trade landscape just shifted dramatically. The US has implemented sweeping reciprocal tariffs, its biggest policy change since NAFTA, sparking global concern. This expert comment dissects t...

The new reciprocal tariffs are not reciprocal, and do not depend on tariffs faced by US exports. What’s more interesting is that they will not only harm many countries, but will affect them differently. What’s crazier you ask? US will be impacted too!
Read here: odi.org/en/insights/...

#econsky

TESS - Trump Reciprocal Tariffs: Penalizing Vulnerable Economies

My colleagues, @jodiekeane.bsky.social and Bernardo Arce at @odi-trade.bsky.social, (with minor inputs from me) have done a brilliant and timely analysis on how LDCs will be penalised due to Trump’s liberation day tariffs.
#econsky #tariffs

Read it here: tessforum.org/latest/trump...

What a time to be alive and a trade economist! #econsky

Trump's claim that foreigners will pay the tariffs in full. They assume a small but positive passthrough indicating that domestic prices will rise by 25% of the tariffs.

Reciprocal Tariff Calculations Executive Summary Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners. This calculation assumes that pe...

This is what Trump's "economists" say about how they calculated the "reciprocal" tariffs. Don[t be fooled by the equation. They commit countless crimes against economics. ustr.gov/issue-areas/... +

Nigeria’s digital trade revolution: leading the way under the AfCFTA Nigeria is poised to become Africa's digital trade leader, leveraging its dynamic tech ecosystem and young population. A recent workshop by ODI Global and the Office of the Vice President focused on b...

🇳🇬Nigeria's digital trade revolution is ON!

Read our latest blog by @angela-kolongo.bsky.social & @prachiagarwal.bsky.social to learn how #Nigeria is becoming a #DigitalTrade powerhouse in Africa under the #AfCFTA.

Also features key takeaways from our Abuja workshop + top 10 priorities for success.

Under the tangerine sun: the creative economy in global cities The rapid growth of the orange economy has the potential to drive socio-economic progress, structural transformation and job creation, particularly empowering youth and women. This paper explores the ...

#DidYouKnow that the creative industries generate $4.3 trillion in revenue and 50mln jobs annually?

@prachiagarwal.bsky.social explores how cities are harnessing the #OrangeEconomy to drive growth & innovation – from Milan's fashion to Lagos's Nollywood, discover how CCIs are reshaping urban life.

Excellent graphics from Frederica Fragapane show the size and contribution (GDP contribution, no. of jobs and enterprises supported) of the orange economy in global cities from London & Milan, to Mexico City, Bandung & Seoul, all the way to Lagos 👗🎨🎭🎸🪇🎬

From Milan’s fashion to Lagos’s Nollywood, creative industries are reshaping urban life. They turn neglected areas into cultural hubs, attract investment, and bring people together through art.
Yet, there are severe constraints on how they are measured that undermines their size, and potential.

🍊 ‘Under the Tangerine Sun: The Creative Economy in Global Cities’🍊

Today, the creative economy agenda is more urgent than ever. These industries are pivotal to building sustainable cities, supporting international trade and tourism, & advancing global cultural diplomacy. 🎭 🖼️ 🎨 🖌️
#econsky

Accessing territory, alienating allies, seizing resources-> we let them become the centre of the world, the most powerful nation and even elect a “insert apropos noun”. Now we are reaping what we sowed. Frightening doesn’t even begin to describe what the future holds.

Take the oil, reclaim the Panama Canal, buy Greenland, absorb Canada ... it's 19th century imperialism.

I would steal some from my parents’ stash when I was a kid 😂😂

What an excellent conversation with Terser on their podcast! We focused on Nigeria’s digital economy and opportunities under the #AfCFTA.

Read more here: odi.org/en/publicati...

Promoting women entrepreneurship under the Guided Trade Initiative This report examines the Guided Trade Initiative (GTI), a pilot program under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and its impact on women traders. Through interviews and case studies, th...

In recent analysis, I offer recommendations to promote women entrepreneurship in Africa to increase their participation in trade.
@odi-trade.bsky.social

odi.org/en/publicati...