It’s not surprising

Oil prices like this make me glad I’ve been VO2 maxing the past year.

Love Dean but can’t have him for 12 a year when we have Baun and Campbell and Trotter and Mondon.

All fine. Would’ve liked to keep Phillips but not for 30m a year

Free Trade Boys WE UP

"Against this theoretical backdrop, there is a growing body of empirical research documenting that early childhood programs can generate meaningful and lasting improvements
in children’s life chances" #Econsky

Open shot, fate of the Universe on the Line or the Martians have the Death Beam pointed at Earth you better hit it...I WANT BAD BUNNY!!!

Decomposing Economic Choices with Drift-Diffusion Models Many decisions arise from a dynamic process of information accumulation and comparison. Thus, to fully understand decision-making, we must decompose the choice process into its parts. Here, we review ...

Chapter 📖 "Decomposing Economic Choices with Drift-Diffusion Models" with @krajbichlab.bsky.social and Xiaozhi (Taro) Yang is out in, "Neuroeconomics: Core Topics and Current Directions" edited by @dvsmith.bsky.social, @thepsychologist.bsky.social, @dfareri.bsky.social
tinyurl.com/yey56tup

I know all eyes are on Minneapolis, but there's a fast-approaching nightmare in Springfield, Ohio.

Trump is revoking protected status for tens of thousands of Haitians living there on Feb. 3.

Reportedly, on Feb. 4, 1000 ICE agents are arriving to remove this population. Ethnic cleansing.

Recessions aren’t uniform events. Decomposing the labor market by race, education, and underemployment, using @claudia-sahm.bsky.social-style turning points, the cyclical sensitivities differ sharply—because some people experience recessions first.

There’s an inequality to recession.
#EconSky

For those attending ASSA, EconScience meetings, here is our session on LLMs in experimental economics (as synthetic subjects) 1015am 5 Jan 2026. Audience will be discussants, using Slido app; everyone can submit questions at any time. We're all looking forward to it.
@thomashenning.bsky.social

I find it comforting to remind myself on occasion of how big the world truly is.

Happy New Year to all; I hope you all have a great 2026.

This is extremely important

Were they?

On Wall Street or retail? The professional guys are smart.

Breaking news; PhD Student Thomas Henning revealed to have said
“The philosophical difference between Bayesian and Frequentist stats is fake; given that all statistical methods require assumptions and the debate is only on which of them to directly quantify “

If me and the boy’s group chat leaked it would just be talking about how I we love non-parametric statistical tests for Neurobehavioral data due to their robustness and relatively fewer assumptions driven

Just general parties. The decrease in drinking and drugs is good. But is the trade off decrease in social engagement outweighing it? Maybe.

It’s leading to a societal backswing on progressive policies.

That’s a wrap for #SNE2025! Grateful for the chance to share some of our recent work as a spotlight this year and thankful to the society for supporting me as one of this year’s travel award winners along with @gloriawfeng.bsky.social, @jaehyungwoo.bsky.social, Laura Globig, and Minho Hwang)!

We deserved honor for a great scientist. Congratulations!

Very interesting. I am curious how does framework this explain that we see predictive coding effects in domains like Finance, which doesn’t really have space.

Good luck!

Can Trump fire Cook? Part 2 in a series on the Trump Administration's efforts to remove sitting central bankers

If Cook had done the very same thing in 2023, after her public service began, it still would not be obvious to me that an error on a mortgage application would constitute “cause” for these purposes. Would a traffic violation? An adverse finding on a tax audit?

open.substack.com/pub/petercon...

To raise fertility rates, it’s not women who need to step up — it’s men New research found that countries where men do more housework and child care have higher fertility rates.

A new paper by Nobel Prize-winning economist Claudia Goldin has found that countries where men take on more of the household labor and child care — in other words, those who buck traditionalism’s standards of the provider husband and homemaker wife — have higher fertility rates.

Why is dollar cost averaging so popular. It makes no sense. EV in the market is highest right now!

Unless you believe in market timing (you shouldnt unless you sit in a big Bank/HF and have access to all “public wink wink” data, you should invest what you plan to DCA right away! With few exceptions

While it seems to take humans years of deliberate practice to become more skeptical, I wonder what it would take for LLMs to encode the idea that effects between things are often small and non-existent; and frankly even regardless of whether they’re published in a fancy journal.

As any researcher can probably tell you (due to the painstaking PhD process) this is like the exact opposite of reality!

And yet most humans likely also default to assuming there is an effect!

Pattern seeking brain, pattern seeking LLM? Curious where this bias comes from in both humans and LLMs

Becoming increasingly clear to me that LLM have an “effect bias”. When you ask about the relationship between two things, it defaults to stating there is some relationship (regardless of truth) much more often than stating there is no relationship.

Coinciding with many less applicants from students abroad. To see what was once one of America’s greatest institutions in such disrepair is beyond disheartening.

Not sure what the solutions are, if any exist on how we can ever truly recover.