Happy to have one of the most cited papers in FinanzArchiv, one of the world's oldest professional journals in public finance, founded in 1884. www.mohrsiebeck.com/en/journal/f...

Dornbusch, Rudiger. 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics." Journal of Political Economy, 84: 1161-1176. ➡️ We get 90% of AI in this classical paper, even before AI was available!

Some past-current research topics.

"Impact of Sovereign Debt Maturity on Fiscal Sustainability", forthcoming 2026 [ABS 3; ABDC B] António Afonso, José Alves, Oļegs Matvejevs, Olegs Tkacevs.
🌀 19 developed countries (1995-20): gov debt with maturity above 10y reduces fiscal responsiveness.
🌀QE played a key role.

14th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments. Fri, Jul 17, 2026. ISEG. Lisbon. uece2.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/.../2026/efa... Keynote: Roel Beetsma.

Call for Papers IIPF 2026 https://www.iipf.org/papers/Call%20for%20Papers_IIPF%202026_print.pdf

⏳ Deadline approaching: submit your public finance paper by February 15 and join us at #IIPF2026 in Lisbon, Portugal, in August!
What to expect: keynotes, paper sessions on various topics, social program, networking.
Further info at www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/en/event/iipf/ and www.iipf.org/cng.htm

ISEG PhD in Economics (www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/en/study/phd...) thesis defense. Congratulations Jorge Braga Ferreira. 16.01.2026. António Afonso, Frederico Silva Leal, José Alves, Manuel Martins

Happy new Year from Lisbon.

Failing to change the status quo will continue to bring financial losses, loss of international credibility, loss of human capital to the country, and choosing candidates who bring no added value to the institutions.

It is unreasonable for competition juries to be filled with people without any visible scientific output. Those who manage higher education institutions have a say on this issue. It is important that those who decide also have a strong scientific CV.

Portuguese academy (although this might occur also in other countries) seems to have a serious problem: strongly resists the meritocratic recognition of scientific quality. Indeed, the results of academic competitions often depend on webs of interests, favors, factions, and political connections.

iipf.org/cng.htm
The 82nd Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance (@iipf.bsky.social) will be held at ISEG Lisbon, Portugal, from August 24-26, 2026. Local organization: António Afonso, José Alves and João Pereira dos Santos (all ISEG Lisbon).

ISEG PhD Economics (lnkd.in/gwuCTJ_K)
Advanced education with high level of technical and scientific qualification. Enabling an international career in economics and in highly qualified roles in the public/private sector. Acceptance rate: 35%. International students; 55%.

ISEG MMFE (lnkd.in/dgcP4B2v): next step in your career. Employers recognize to graduates a strong background in quantitative methods, macro, monetary and financial economics. Half of the courses are mandatory; half chosen by the student. 1/3-1/2 international students.

Papers (lnkd.in/dTENAgs9) of this SI were presented at the 10th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments (lnkd.in/ekprsCaB), ISEG – Lisbon School of Economics and Management, 22-Jul-2022. Editors: António Afonso (guest editor); Jan-Egbert Sturm.

14th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments. Fri, Jul 17, 2026. ISEG. Lisbon. uece2.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/.../2026/efa... Keynote: Roel Beetsma.

New 3-bedroom flat, 150 sq m, Avenidas Novas, Lisbon, 1500000 EUR. New 3-bedroom flat, 164 sq m, Porte de Namur, Brussels, 1000000 EUR. Price in Lisbon is 50% higher than in Brussels. Per capita income in Brussels is 100% higher than in Lisbon.

🚨Working Paper Alert!
"Drivers of New Business Creation in the OECD: The Role of Education and Taxation"
✍️ @theiiiman.bsky.social M. Carmen Blanco-Arana & Ana J. Cisneros-Ruiz

Find out how education and taxation drive new business creation in OECD countries 🌍: www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu...

Stock and sovereign returns linkages: time-varying causality and extreme-quantile determinants. Forthcoming, International Review of Financial Analysis. António Afonso, José Alves, Wojciech Grabowski, Sofia Monteiro.

Sharing the pain Increasing budget deficits and rising government debts are likely to entail fierce political battles—not least between taxpayers and public-sector workers

www.economist.com/briefing/201... Back in 2010 the Economist was the case for tax cuts: "A paper by António Afonso of the European Central Bank and Davide Furceri of the OECD found that increases in government spending as a proportion of GDP tended to be correlated with slower economic growth."

Happy to be in the World's top 1%! Elsevier Data Repository, Aug 2025. "Updated science-wide author databases of standardized citation indicators" elsevier.digitalcommonsdata.com/datasets/btc...

www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu... A discretionary positive shock to the primary balance leads to a decrease in real government debt, a result consistent with a Monetary Dominant regime and sustainable fiscal practices.

14th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments. Fri, Jul 17, 2026. ISEG. Lisbon. uece2.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/events/2026/... Keynote: Roel Beetsma

Does monetary policy influence euro area fiscal sustainability? This paper studies the impact of monetary policy on fiscal sustainability in the euro area. We extend a standard fiscal reaction function by introduci…

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... António Afonso, Francisco Gomes Pereira. "An expansionary monetary policy stance, following an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, leads to lower primary balances."

ideas.repec.org/e/paf1.html

www.europarl.europa.eu/topics/en/ar...

lnkd.in/dkjH8fbV "Greater skewness is associated with higher sovereign bond yields and higher short-term interest rates. In contrast, an increase in debt concentration tends to reduce both sovereign bond yields and short-term interest rates."

lnkd.in/deQA9iiP Copernicus proposed a single unifying theory: the Quantity Theory of Money. In his 1526 tract, Copernicus identified the single common cause of all inflation as the general increase in the quantity of coins minted from any given metal basis.

Investment dynamics and economic growth: a robust VAR analysis of public and private investments across 18 advanced economies This study examines the macroeconomic returns on public and private investments in 18 advanced economies from 1965 to 2019 using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach. By exploring the interplay b...

Investment dynamics and economic growth: a robust VAR analysis of public and private investments across 18 advanced economies: Applied Economics: Vol 0, No 0 - Get Access www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

António Afonso, Jorge Ferreira. rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/ "With 1,368 euro-denominated sovereign bonds issued between Q1:2018 and Q1:2022 in 19 Eurozone countries, we find that the PEPP was more effective in low-debt countries, but its effects diminished with higher debt levels."