Many thanks to Jessica Maves Braithwaite, Charles Butcher, and Johannes Vüllers for all their hard work organizing this @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social special issue!

Internal processes (like purging) affect the timing of leader change.

Even externally-driven "decapitations" are tied to internal dynamics. Purges eliminate spies, who serve as sources of intelligence for states, and can undermine decapitation success.

✨ In short, organizational politics matter! ✨

I find that purging increases leader longevity.

➡️ 92% of leaders who used purging were still in power after 5 years, compared to only 60% of those who didn't purge

➡️ A leader’s use of purging is associated with a 71% reduction in the hazard of removal from office

Distribution of Leader Exits by Type.

I collect new data on leader exit and purging for rebels in Asia.

➡️ 33% of leader exits caused by decapitation (leaders killed, captured, or arrested by a state)
➡️ 13% of leader exits caused by internal coups or assassinations by group members
➡️ 17% of rebel leaders engaged in purging at least once

Like autocrats, rebel leaders take steps to protect themselves from internal threats

Rebel leaders use tools that mirror autocratic "coup-proofing" tactics
➡️purge rivals & spies
➡️centralize decision making
➡️promote friends

This paper studies purging, which is used by rebel leaders around the world

Rebel purges and leader survival: maintaining power through purges in rebel organizations Abstract. How do rebel leaders maintain power? In rebel groups, leaders face threats to their survival in office from dissatisfied subordinates, internal r

My article on purging & leader survival in rebel groups is now out in @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social!

Open access: doi.org/10.1093/jopr...

How do rebel leaders stay in power? While we often study "decapitation" by state forces, internal actors (coup plotters, spies) also threaten leader survival.

Updating the syllabus for my undergraduate research seminar on civil war and terrorism -- I'm looking for an article on civil war/political violence with a great literature review to serve as an example in my class on lit reviews. Any suggestions? Self-promotion is very welcome! #PoliSky

Looking forward to presenting some new work at
@stanfordcisac.bsky.social
tomorrow with my Mapping Militants co-author Martha Crenshaw!

Congratulations, Sarah!!! So excited for you!!

Update from the Mapping Militants Project!

New updates to Oath Keepers & Proud Boys profiles include:
🔹Jan 6 trials & seditious conspiracy
🔹ties to other groups
🔹activities of local chapters & splinters

➡️Oath Keepers - bit.ly/mmp-oath-kee...
➡️Proud Boys - bit.ly/mmp-proud-boys

polisky conflictsky

@profmusgrave.bsky.social May I be added to Polisky? Thank you!