Probably the most talented early-career political scientist out there just became a doctor!

If you have a project, budget, or call for applications that suits her profile, you’d be wise to reach out to her.

Do it and thank me later 😉

¡¡Felicidades Dr Müller!! 🍾

New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform

Here we argue that predictions of local ‘chaos’ as a result of fragmentation may be misleading - given the current incentives of FPTP under bloc politics … We may instead be in the middle of a restructuring towards national fragmentation, local two-partyism.

Multi-party politics isn’t necessarily chaotic – we could be moving towards a new local two-party-ism There are certainly reasons to argue for electoral reform. But pointing to the current system as a generator of chaos could be a misinterpretation ...

Multi-party politics isn’t necessarily chaotic – we could be moving towards a new local two-party-ism, write @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social

'Load of b******s': Labour Red Wall MPs angered by Rayner's migration attack Sources close to the former deputy prime minister deny she is making a leadership pitch

One of Labour's big problems right there: a whole bunch of MPs who are convinced that the only reason they won in 2024 and might hold on to their seats in 2028/9 is because they persuaded Reform-curious voters to back them. The research doesn't really support their belief. But hey, 'the doorstep'. 🙄

In 2024, 744 parties competed in the Indian general election, 10 times as many as in the UK. Yet we describe both as 2-party systems. Why?

My new post explains how to count like a political scientist: using the *effective* number of parties.

jack-bailey.co.uk/blog/what-is...

paging and exposing @jack-bailey.co.uk, who listens to science audiobooks at x3 speed in the car

Thanks Helen! 🙂

All this great economic insecurity stuff was not my doing!

Thanks Joe!!

Thank you Ben!!

Thanks Chris! 🙂

I’ve written about this excellent piece before in my own take on Labour’s “midlife crisis“ but this really was the warning sign from almost six months ago that the data was saying something very different from Number 10’s rhetoric.

Late deciders, higher turnout: what the Gorton and Denton byelection taught us about voters High numbers of undecideds may partially explain the late swing to the Greens.

New piece from w/ @hannahbunting.bsky.social & @jess-smith.bsky.social on the Gorton & Denton byelection, and what it might tell us about British politics.

We cover turnout, late-deciding voters, gender gaps & the continuing fragmentation of the party system 🧵

theconversation.com/late-decider...

Pleased to see this work with @rozemarijnvandijk.bsky.social @martamiori.bsky.social & @robfordmancs.bsky.social published: We look at the effects of involving party members in candidate selection at the 2019 UK general election: eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com?url=https%3A...

Great to speak with @meganekenyon.bsky.social of @newstatesman1913.bsky.social on location about the result in Gorton and Denton, including the role of party blocs!

Clipped my bit below, but you can watch the whole video here (bonus, there is a cat!):
youtu.be/dUh_1XuAg-g?...

Thanks Mark! 🙂

Thanks Alex!! Hope to see you soon!! xx

Grazie mille! 😉

Many thanks to artist and creative director @oonuch.bsky.social

Thank you!! 🙂🙂

Thank you Stuart!! I can happily report back that I spent 30 consecutive days at the beach after submitting this thesis 🫡 feeling "slightly less tired" as a result

Thank you so much, Ailsa! Hope to see you soon!

Thank you Peter!! 🙏

Thank you Tom!! Looking forward to seeing you at PSA!

Thanks Mark!!

Thanks Neema!!! ❤️

Thank you Will!! 😀

Thanks Anthony!! 🙂